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The Cattle Range Weekly Market Summary provides market data for the informed cattleman. Current industry news & commentary as well as a comprehensive comparison of the past week's prices from around the country in comparison to the previous week, month, 6 months ago, 1 year ago, & 5 year average.  The data is compiled from a variety of sources and is organized to provide insight in determining market movement and trends.

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SAMPLE... Market Summary for the week ending April 3rd:
  • Bullish: Tight global supplies of beef will continue to support prices world wide.
  • Bearish: Recent economic reports indiicate the U.S.economy is weaker than some are willing to admit.

The Cattle Range 10-Day Market Trend:
An indicator of overall cattle/beef market strength. The angle indicates direction & velocity of the trend.
The Trendline is based on daily market factors for the last 10 days.
Each daily factor is the aggregate weighted total of the Gain/(Loss) for 10 major market indicators compared to the previous trading day.

National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary:
RECEIPTS:   Auctions   Direct   Video/Internet   Total
This Week     215,800     52,600          2,400        270,800 
Last Week     265,700     32,100        25,600        323,400 
Last Year       224,300     70,600        35,200        330,100
Compared to last week, yearling feeder cattle traded firm to 5.00 higher with instances 6.00-8.00 higher. Direct sales were very active this week and posted the full advance on feeder cattle.  Steer and heifer calves sold mostly steady to 5.00 higher.  Buyers flexed their muscle in pursuing all classes of feeder cattle this week.  Improvements in the weather across the country also did its part in adding to the feeder cattle market, especially on calves and stocker cattle that are in suitable condition for immediate turn-out and compensatory gain on greening pastures.  The Southern Plains received rain and warm weather to help improve wheat crop conditions, and boost summer grazing interest on very good buyer demand.

With “grass fever” in full swing following the warmer temperatures, market signals from late last week started finding confidence as most major salebarns noticed higher prices as farmer feeders and local ackgrounders entered the mix. Cattle feeding can be frustrating at times with expensive overhead, fluctuations in feed prices and volatile market prices but grazing cattle on grass can be just as satisfying and rewarding.  Inexpensive growth and gains are what backgrounders receive on pasture and what motivates cattlemen and farmer feeders to assemble their stockers each year. 

At the St. Joseph Stockyards on Wednesday sold a string 105 head of fancy black steers weighing 828 lbs settled on a bid of 234.00 with a part load of lighter steer mates in thin condition weighing 710 lbs dropping the gavel at 266.00.  Demand continues to remain very good for popular weight steer calves weighing 400-650 lbs, with many areas selling 500-550 lb steer calves selling near or above the 3.00/lb level. 

Cattle futures busted out of the gate on Monday with sharp triple-digit gains after the fat cattle market closed 2.00-3.00 higher last Friday with most live prices trading from 163.00-165.00.  Open interest for Live and Feeder cattle contracts has increased with this rally.  Live and feeder cattle markets are starting to see prices that many analysts thought we might not see for a while or so soon.  Cattle feeders are finding confidence with tight supplies and seeing some bullish momentum on the board as boxed beef prices received a shot in the arm at Midweek with sharp gains as Choice product closed above 250.00.  This week’s reported auction volume included 56 percent over 600 lbs and 41 percent heifers. 

Stocker Steers:
Feeder Steers:
Five Year Moving Average - Stocker Steers, Feeder Steers, & Slaughter Steers:
Cattle Futures: Beef strength apparently boosted cattle futures. The cattle industry is clearly expecting a sizeable seasonal price drop during late spring and summer. However, cash and wholesale quotes have persistently refused to end their traditional March-April price rally; sizeable midday beef gains helped pull the Chicago market higher as well. June cattle futures jumped 1.15 cents to 153.37 cents/pound at Thursday’s settlement, while August cattle rallied 0.65 to 149.82 cents/pound. Meanwhile, May feeder cattle futures vaulted 0.80 cents to 217.45 cents/pound, and August feeders ran up 0.62 to 218.55.

Selected Auction Reports:
"Click" on individual auction links for complete report
Oklahoma National Stockyards - Oklahoma City OK
Actual Receipts: 9,501   Last Monday: 6,206   Year Ago Monday: 8,316
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers mostly steady.  Steer and heifer calves firm to 3.00 higher on comparable sales.

El Reno Cattle Narrative - El Reno OK
Receipts:  6770    Last Week:  6601    Year Ago:  4485
Compared to last week:  Feeder steers sold steady to 4.00 higher.  Feeder heifers traded 4.00 to 6.00 higher.  Steer calves traded 4.00 to 5.00 higher in a light test.

Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg - Carthage MO
Receipts:  5823    Week Ago:  7066    Year Ago:  6368
Compared to last week, steer calves under 500 lbs 5.00 to 10.00 higher, steercalves over 500 lbs and heifer calves steady to 5.00 higher, yearling steers 2.00 to 4.00 higher, yearling heifers steady to 3.00 higher.

Cattleman's Livestock Auction - Dalhart, TX
Cattle and Calves: 1675          Week ago: 2157          Year Ago: 2048
Compared to week ago:  Feeder steers and heifers mostly steady except steers over 800 lbs 1.00-2.00 lower.  Slaughter cows 1.00-3.00 lower.  Slaughter bulls steady.

Tulia Livestock Auction - Tulia TX
Receipts:  2728    Last Week:  3518    Year Ago:  2348
Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers sold steady to 4.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold with a much lower undertone.

Denison Wtd Avg Feeder Cattle Auction - Denison IA
Receipts:  2513    Two Weeks Ago:  2482
Compared to two weeks ago, Steers 500 to 750 lbs were mostly steady and 750 to 950 lbs were 10 higher. Heifers 500 to 600 lbs were 3 higher, 600 to 700 lbs were 8 higher and 700 to 900 lbs were steady to 6 higher.

Tri-State Livestock Auction Market - McCook NE
Receipts:  1500    Last Week:  2300    Year Ago:  1500
Compared to last week, steers and heifers were steady – 2.00 higher. Demand was good with a higher undertone.

Valentine Livestock Auction Market - Valentine NE
Receipts: 4,520        Last Week   none       Last Year 2,780
No recent test of market for an accurate comparison a trend will not be given today. However, a higher undertone was noted.

Clovis Livestock Auction - Clovis NM
Receipts:  1866                Week Ago:  1660                   Year Ago:  2127
Compared to last month:  No comparison on Holstein steers due to limited receipts last month, but a higher undertone noted.  Compared to last week, feeder steers mostly 2.00 higher, heifers 2.00-3.00 higher except 400-500 lbs, instances 10.00 higher.  Slaughter cows and bulls steady to weak.

Toppenish, WA Livestock Auction - Toppenish WA
Receipts:  1600    Last Week:  1650    Year Ago:  1700
Compared to last Thursday at the same market, stocker and feeder cattle mixed, steers 5.00-10.00 higher and heifers 2.00-10.00 lower. Trade active with good demand. Slaughter cows and bulls 2.00 to 5.00 higher.

Farmers & Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. - Salina KS
Receipts:  4159    Last Week:  4310    Year Ago:  5516
Compared to last week: Steers 500-850 lbs 3.00 to 9.00 lower; 850-1100 lbs steady to 3.00 higher, 550 lbs and under lower undertone in a limited supply. Heifers 700-900 lbs 1.00 to 2.00 lower, 700 lbs and under steady undertone in a limited supply.

Sioux Falls Regional Livestock wtd Avg Report - Worthing SD
Receipts:  3465    Last Week:  4135    Year Ago:  2408
Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers 2.00 to 6.00 higher except steers 700-750 lbs and 800-850 lbs 7.00 to 8.00 higher, and heifers 500-650 lbs 10.00 to 15.00 higher.

Mitchell Livestock Wtd Avg Report - Mitchell SD
Receipts:  4820    Last Week:  4212    Year Ago:  2145
Compared to last week:  Feeder steers under 650 lbs had toofew comparable sales, 650-1000 lbs steady to 3.00 lower with the exception of 850-900 lbs fully steady, 1000-1100 lbs2.00 to 4.00 higher.  Feeder heifers lightly tested under 700 lbs, 700-800 lbs steady to 2.00 lower, 800-900 lbs mostly steadywith instance 5.00 lower on 800-850 lbs, 900-950 lbs 3.00 higher on a light test.

Weekly Auction Summaries:
Tennessee Weekly Auction Summary

Receipts on 9 TN Auctions 8,388 10 Last Week 9,800 12 Last Year 7,600
Trends:  According to the Federal-State Market News Service, comparedto last week, slaughter cows 1.00 to 4.00 lower. Slaughter bulls steady.  Steers/bulls steady to 4.00 higher. Heifers 1.00 to 3.00 higher.

Kentucky Weekly Livestock Summary
Receipts This Week 27,243, Last Week 31,589, Last Year 24,980
Compared to last week, Steer Calves sold steady to 3.00 higher with good to very good demand.  Heifer Calves were 1.00 to 3.00 higher with very good demand.  Yearling Steers were steady to weak.  Slaughter Cows and Slaughter Bulls sold steady to 3.00 higher with good demand.

Mississippi Weekly Livestock Summary
Cattle Receipts:    6,357       Last Week:      4,222       Last Year:    6,066
Compared to last week, slaughter cows sold 1.00 to 4.00 lower and bulls sold steady. Feeder steers and heifers sold steady.

Alabama Auctions Weekly Summary
Total estimated receipts this week 9,400, last week 9,597 and 11,274 last year.
Compared to one week ago: Slaughter cows and bulls sold steady to 1.00 lower. Replacement cows and pairs sold mostly steady. All feeder classes sold steady to 5.00 higher.

Georgia Cattle Auctions Weekly Review
Cattle receipts at 25 markets 8,942 compared to 6,958 last week and 8,824 year ago.
Compared to one week earlier, slaughter cows 1.00 to 3.00 lower, bulls steady to 2.00 lower, feeder steers and bulls steady to    3.00 higher, heifers steady to 2.00 higher, steer calves and bull calvesunevenly steady to 3.00 higher, heifer calves 1.00 to 4.00 higher, replacement cows unevenly steady.

Colorado Auction Feeder Cattle Summary
Receipts:  3,435     Last Week:  2,743     Last Year:  3,033
Compared to last week: Not enough comparable sales on feeder steers or heifers for a market trend, but a higher undertone was noted.

Direct Sales of Feeder & Stocker Cattle:
"Click" on individual links for complete report

AZ-CA-NV Weekly Feeder Cattle Review (Fri)
Confirmed: 9250 
Compared to July contracts for 275-300 lb Holstein steers, August contracts traded 15.00-20.00 higher. 

Colorado Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
Receipts:  3,435     Last Week:  2,743     Last Year:  3,033
Compared to last week: Not enough comparable sales on feeder steers or heifers for a market trend, but a higher undertone was noted.

Eastern Cornbelt Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
Reported sales this week: 248   Last Week: 69    Last year: 299
Compared to last week:  No comparison available for feeder steers and heifers due to limited comparable sales. 

Georgia Direct Cattle Summary (Fri)
Confirmed sales on 2,930 head.

Kansas Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
Receipts:  4820    Last Week:  5928    Year Ago:  13937
Compared with last week: Feeder steers and heifers firm to 2.00 higher.

Montana Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
Receipts:  80     Last Week: 274     Year Ago:  483
Compared to last week:  No recent comparable sales on feeder heifers.  No feeder steers reported.

New Mexico Feeder Cattle Report (Mon)
Receipts:  6700    Last Week:  2600    Year Ago:  3200
Compared to last week:  Steers and heifers sold firm to 3.00 higher.

Northwest Wtd Avg Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
Receipts:  7550    Last Week:  4000    Year Ago:  5500
Compared to last Friday, feeder cattle 2.00-13.00 higher.

Oklahoma Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
Receipts:  5823    Last Week:  3621    Last Year:  7024
Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers sold 3.00 to 6.00 higher. 

South Dakota Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
Receipts: 736    Last Week:  95     Last Year:  170 
Compared to last week:  No comparable sales on feeder steers or heifers.

Texas Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
Confirmed:  30,400     Last Week: 25,900      Last Year: 40,100
Compared to last week current FOB feeder steers and heifers were mostly Steady to 1.00 higher. 

WY, Western NE & Western Dakotas Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
Receipts:  2825    Week Ago:  700    Year Ago:  1629
Compared to last week, steers sold mostly steady. Not enough heifers for an adequate market trend. Slaughter steers and heifers trending higher on this Good Friday.


Representative Sales of Cow & Pairs:
  • Loup City, NE
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-4 yrs 1365-1435 lbs 3rd stage 2400.00-2450.00; Solid Mouth 3rd stage 1555 lbs 1950.00; Aged 3rd Stage 1280-1380 lbs 1750.00-2000.00, 2nd stage 1235-1300 lbs 1360.00-1625.00.  Medium and Large 1-2: 2 yrs 2nd stage 975 lbs 2000.00; 3-4 yrs 2nd stage 940-1085 lbs 1950.00-2150.00; Solid Mouth 2nd stage 1190 lbs 2225.00. 
    • Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 2 yrs 1055 lbs w/100 lbs calves 2600.00; 3-4 yrs 1110-1125 lbs w/100-150 lbs calves 2950.00-3000.00; Aged 1340 lbs w/80 lbs calves 2550.00.
  • Woodward, OK
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2   3-7 yrs 1100-1375 lbs 3-7 months 2450.00-2800.00; 5-7 yrs 1150-1200 lbs 2-6 months 1800.00-2225.00; 6-8 yrs 1050-1425 lbs 2-5 months 1625.00-1800.00.
  • El Reno, OK
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-8 yrs 1050-1250 lbs 2-7 months 2350.00-2500.00; 6-8 yrs 1000-1350 lbs 5-7 months 1950.00-2275.00; 8-10 yrs 1150-1400 6-8 months 1550.00-1950.00; 9-10 yrs 950-1200 lbs 5-7 months 1450.00-1775.00.
  • Joplin, MO
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2 yrs to short solid 1070-1350 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 1800.00-2375.00, short solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1100-1190 lbs 1380.00-1700.00.  Large 1-2  3-7 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 1300-1650 lbs 2200.00-2600.00; broken mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 1475-1525 lbs 1700.00-1920.00.  Medium and Large 2  7 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd stage 1100-1255 lbs 1370.00-1500.00.  Medium 1-2  2 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 875-1050 lbs 1600.00-1875.00, 1st stage 800-985 lbs 1250.00-1700.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1000-1020 lbs 1410.00-1525.00.
  • Springfield, MO
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2 yrs to short solid 965-1330 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 965-1330 lbs 1825.00-2275.00, 1st stage 1025-1208 lbs 1760.00-1850.00; short solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1105-1260 lbs 1400.00-1700.00, 1st stage couple 1175-1195 lbs 1350.00-1525.00.  Medium and Large 2  4-6 yrs 1st and 2nd stage 1020-1270 lbs 1400.00-1775.00.  Medium 1-2  3-6 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 785-925 lbs 1575.00, 1st stage 4-5 yrs 920-1020 lbs 1475.00-1600.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  4 yrs to short and solid mouth 1155-1310 lbs w/160-425 lb calves 2400.00-2825.00, broken mouth 1180-1350 lbs w/170-325 lb calves rebred 2100.00-2325.00.  Medium and Large 2  pkg. 1080 lbs aged w/140-150 lb calves 1600.00.  Medium 1-2  5-6 yrs few 1000-1055 lbs w/baby calves 2275.00-2300.00; short and solid mouth to aged 935-1000 lb cows w/150-390 lb calves 1700.00-2100.00.
  • West Plains, MO
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-7 yrs 1000-1550 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 1900.00-2300.00; Short-solid to broken mouth 1015-1570 lb cows in 2nd-3rd stage 1500.00-1800.00.  Medium and Large 2  2-7 yr old 965-1320 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 1600.00-1925.00; Short-solid to broken mouth 875-1360 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 1300.00-1700.00.  Medium 1-2  2-7 yrs 630-1120 lbs 1st-3rd stage 1200.00-1600.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  Few 4-6 yrs 945-1090 lbs w/200-300 lb calves 2200.00-2300.00, pkg 2 yrs 850 lbs w/100 lb calves 1800.00; Short-solid to broken mouth 928-1150 lbs w/100-300 lb calves 1900.00-2150.00.

Bred Cows & Heifers in 2nd & 3rd Stages of Pregnancy:
Insufficient sale data available this week to calculate viable averages.

Canadian Cattle:
Alberta Beef Producers:  Alberta direct cattle sales saw light volumes of western Canadian fed cattle trade South. US sales were fully steady with the previous week working back to the upper 190.00's/cwt. There have been rumblings local packers are bidding steady money with last week but not getting a lot of feedlot attention. Selling pressure remains limited as cash supplies remains current.
Canadian Weekly Cattle Report:

Fed prices climb

  • In what has become unusual, four major Canadian and American packers bought western Canadian cattle last week.
  • Fed steers averaged $197.37 per hundredweight, up 59 cents, and heifers were $196.48, up $2.47.
  • Dressed sales rallied $7-$10 at mostly $329-$332 delivered.
  • Alberta packers had to increase bids to procure cattle and compete with the American buyers.
  • Sales to the United States were US$267 dressed.
  • The cash-to-futures basis weakened to -$5.07 but remained strong for this time of year.
  • In the U.S., light live trade developed late in the week at prices $2 higher in the south at US$165 live.
  • A few dressed sales were reported in the north at $263 delivered, up $3-$4 from the previous week.
  • Weekly western Canadian fed slaughter to March 21 rose 12 percent to 33,485 head. For the year, slaughter is down two percent at 330,189 head.
  • Weekly exports to March 14 rose 16 percent to 7,412 head, which is the most this year.
  • Exports for the year are down 44 percent at 46,546 head. Marketings in April are expected to moderate. Market ready calves are not expected to hit the show list until early May.
  • Packer-owned inventories have tightened.
  • The strong competition and prices should continue this week.
Cow prices still strong
  • Non-fed supplies are anticipated to remain tight near term, and it could be another month before volumes of calving culls increase.
  • D1, D2 cows ranged C$136-$152 to average $144.75, down 58 cents from the previous week.
  • D3 cows ranged $120-$138 to average $128.80.
  • Rail grade cows were $277-$282.
  • Slaughter bulls were $155.64, down $1.59
Feeders strong
  • The number of heifers going to auction has risen as producers cull herds and finalize their breeding intentions.
  • The market will look for confirmation in the March Canfax cattle-on-feed report.
  • Heifer placements into feedlots over the past two months have been historically low.
  • Feeder prices can sometimes weaken in April and match the seasonal lows set in January, but that is unlikely this year.
  • October live cattle futures have strengthened seven percent from their February lows.
  • As well, feeder cattle for April delivery are seeing prices comparable with current cash prices.
  • Alberta auction volumes fell to 29,000 from 40,000 the previous week.
  • Weekly feeder export to the U.S. topped 16,000 head for the first time this year.
  • Grass buyers have been more aggressive recently on 700-750 pound steers and heifers, and prices strengthened $11-$12 over two weeks.
  • Demand for seed stock heifers is good, adding a premium to their prices.
  • Feeder and calf prices will likely level off at the start of April.
  • Bred cows were $2,100-$3,400 per head, and bred heifers were $2,500-$3,900.
U.S. beef climbs
  • U.S. boxed beef prices rose with Choice up US$4.06 at $250.67 and Select up $2.17 at $246.96, supported by reduced slaughter last week and demand for the coming grilling season.
  • The U.S. cold storage report was bearish for the market with beef inventories up 20 percent at the end of February from last year.
  • Canadian cutouts for the week ending March 21 are unavailable.
  • In contrast to the U.S., grading performance in Canada fell below year-ago levels since mid-March with the percentage of Prime and AAA grades at 64-67 percent compared to 68 percent last year.
This cattle market information is selected from the weekly report from CanFax, a division of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association.

Canadian Cattle Prices:
Prices have been converted to U.S. $/CWT.  Grades changed to approximate U.S. equivalents
Exchange Rate: Canadian dollar equivalent to $0.7935 U.S. dollars
Prices for the week ending March 27th:

Tight Global Beef Supplies in Command of Marketplace:
From Australia to the United States and everywhere between, tight supplies of beef will be a common theme in 2015, according to the latest Rabobank Beef Quarterly report.

“Global beef supply continues to remain tight in Q1 2015, although Australian exports remain high as drought continues,” says Rabobank Animal Protein Analyst Angus Gidley-Baird.  “Continued liquidation of the cattle herd and possible improved seasons will lead to a reduction in Australia’s beef production through 2015.”

According to the report, the rate of liquidation in the Australian herd, due to drought in much of Australia’s major beef-producing regions, cannot continue at the rates in 2013 and 2014 (slaughtered 9.2 million head in 2014). High slaughter and export volumes have offset some of the tight global cattle and beef supplies, however. Despite this fact, without any global beef expansion forecast in the shorterm, Rabobank’s report says global supplies will remain tight.

In the United States, says the volatility in the first quarter of 2015 was due to a number of factors, including pressure in live cattle futures, due in part to an exit of investors and managed money in the marketplace, concern that cattle and beef prices peaked in 2014, concern that increased pork and poultry production will drive down prices for those competitive meats, thus potentially resulting in consumers picking pork and poultry at the meatcase, a disruption in consumer spending and eating out due to severe winter weather across the heavily-populated East Cost, labor disputes in West Coast ports, and more.

Rabobank projects that fed cattle prices will push into the upper $160s to $170 per hundredweight in the normal seasonal rally leading up to grilling season and then decline to a summer low of about $150. Additionally, Rabobank projects demand for replacement females to remain strong.

Throughout the report, Rabobank pointed to the strength of the U.S. dollar as a challenge for U.S. exports but as a potential opportunity for other nations to export more beef and cattle to the United States.

The report provided a snapshot of supply, demand and production in major beef producing nations around the world:

  • Brazil:  The devaluation of the Brazilian real is projected to continue, thus boosting Brazil’s export competitiveness. However, Russia, the second largest market for Brazilian beef, reduced its import quota in the first quarter of 2015. Rabobank says this development will be key for Brazilian meat exports this year.
  • Canada:  Prices for all classes of Canadian cattle have had a strong start in 2015, driven by “aggressive shipments” of feeder cattle and calves. In 2014, shipments of Canadian cattle to the U.S. were up 42 percent, and year-to-date, they are up an additional 14 percent compared to 2014 levels, according to Rabobank. Prices are projected to remain strong for Canadian cattle this year.
  • China:  Retail prices have been stable in early 2015, which Rabobank says reflects weakening demand as prices are generally higher early in the year due to the country’s spring festival. Additionally, the central government has been cracking down on the grey market for meat shipment. The report says more time is needed to review the impacts of shipments through Hong Kong before making any conclusions on the impact.
  • Mexico:  Cattle exports are projected to be strong in 2015, due most, according to Rabobank, by the strong U.S. dollar and demand for cattle from the United States. Rabobank says beef demand will be challenged in 2015 due to relatively high prices, especially compared to lower pork prices. 

Can Everyone Be Wrong?
Expert opinion is never hard to find and frequently experts crawl out of the rocks when the topic reaches a heightened intensity to the point the industry is crying for more opinions. Red ink always tends to draw a need for more analysis, interpretation and finally forecasts. If history were our judge, more money is generally made in contrarian mode vs. running with the crowd.

The data is all there and for the most part unchallenged. Pork and poultry supplies are expanding at a rapid pace. Pork prices have plummeted and features for pork are seen in the supermarkets daily and more will be coming as retailers hang on to any product providing generous margins. The chicken companies are ramping up for all out production and all meats inventories and consumption is expected to reach a high this year.

Joining in this portrait of our domestic meat market outlook is a dollar only recently touching record highs. We all have heard over and over about the bleak outlook for exports caused by a high dollar. American products are simply more expensive overseas.

The conclusion of those within and outside the industry is that beef prices will fall significantly this summer and many have staked bets on short positions in the June contract of live cattle for protection against the fall. The June contract has moved to a $10 discount to the April spot month contract. A short at this level does not protect a profit, but does protect further deterioration in prices. But for everyone to be wrong, several important things must occur:

  • Inelastic demand for beef: Generally the price of a commodity is a function of demand at certain levels of price. There is a plausible case, with these historically low levels of beef production, that enough consumers will choose beef on a regular basis as part of their diet without regard to price. Beef may be so ingrained in the dietary choices that high price relative to the other meats will not unseat it.
  • Beef supplies: Everyone has been waiting for larger supplies of cattle to show up on the market but to date they have failed to materialize. Cow slaughter is likely to remain low and feedlot placements show little sign of expanding.
  • A high dollar: In the past week, the value of the dollar has faltered. It may fall back more following the run straight up. More importantly, the value of the dollar is 57% dependent on its relationship to the Euro. In the basket of currencies traded against the dollar, the Euro dominates. The dollar has moved higher vs. our beef trading partners in Japan (yen), Korea (Won) or China (Yuan) but not at the same rapid pace as against the currencies of our trading partners.
Squeezed margins are beginning to be a fact of life with beef producers. Finding a chink in the armor of the unified market bears would be a pleasant surprise and a welcome one.

Ag Center Cattle Report


Photo of the Week:
  • Angus & Angus Cross 1st-Calf Pairs -- S. Central NE*
  • .

    Beef herd rebuilding: What’s next?
    It seems likely that the industry will be rebuilding or trying to rebuild for the remainder of the decade.

    The long-awaited end to beef cow herd liquidation happened in 2014 as the industry abruptly switched to expansion.  The 2.1 percent increase in beef cow numbers in 2014 was more than generally expected but not a big surprise as the conditions were right for such a turnaround. Modest growth in heifer inventories has occurred since 2012.  It wasn’t until 2014 that beef cow culling decreased enough to combine with heifer retention and result in herd growth.  This leads to a number of questions including how much additional herd growth is needed; how fast can it happen; and where will it take place.  The answers to these questions are not completely apparent at this time and will depend on a number of factors yet to be determined in the coming years.  However there are some indications already in place.

    After a brief attempt at expansion in 2004 and 2005, the industry has experienced unplanned herd liquidation.  I mean unplanned in the sense that it was not typical cyclical factors that caused the liquidation.  It was not, for the most part, low cattle prices but rather cost shocks that caused low returns and liquidation between 2006 and 2010.  Widespread drought forced additional liquidation between 2011 and 2013.  The question of how much growth is needed will depend on domestic and international market conditions over the next few years as herd growth occurs. It will depend also on things such as carcass weights that will determine total beef production relative to slaughter rates.  At this point I see little reason why the cow herd should not rebuild to at least the level of the truncated expansion in 2007-2008 -- roughly 32.5 million head.  That would suggest another 2.8 million head beyond the January, 2015 level. This implies total herd growth of nearly 9.5 percent in the next few years.  Time and market conditions will, however, determine exactly what the size potential is for the industry.

    How long will it take?  At the 2014 rate of 2.1 percent per year, it would take until 2019 to surpass the 32 million head level.  In the last complete cyclical expansion from 1990-1995, the average annual herd growth rate was 1.4 percent.  Leaving out the slow first year and tapering off the last year, the principal four years of expansion during this period averaged 2 percent per year.  In the current expansion, a single year of faster growth is very possible but it is unlikely that an annual growth rate much above 2 percent could be maintained for two or three years consecutively.  There are however, a number of regional factors that could slow down expansion. An average herd growth rate of 1.5 percent would take until 2021 to exceed 32 million head of beef cows. The question of how long is related to the question of where herd growth will take place.

    In five Midwestern states from Missouri to Ohio, the beef cow herd in 2015 was 8.4 percent smaller than in 2008.  In the Appalachian states of Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia, the 2015 beef cow inventory was down 15 percent compared to 2008.  In both of these regions, the decrease in beef cows is largely the result of decreased forage acreage due to expanded crop production.  Lost pasture and hay production in these regions is not likely to return quickly, if ever.  The beef cow herd in these regions will grow but is unlikely to rebuild to previous levels.  The Northern Plains states of Nebraska and the Dakotas experienced a modest 2.9 percent decrease in the beef cow herd between 2008 and 2015.  Similarly, the 2008-2015 beef cow herd decrease in the Northern Rocky Mountain region of Montana and Wyoming was only 1.2 percent.  These regions will likely experience herd rebuilding but the two regions together are currently only 155 thousand head below the 2008 level.   The beef cow herd in other regions is down as well including the South (down 3.8 percent; the Great lakes region (down 4.7 percent); the Gulf region (down 8.1 percent); the Southern Rocky Mountain region (down 2.8 percent) and the Southwest (down 9.4 percent).  These five regions combined are down just over 500 thousand head from 2008 and will likely rebuild but drought will limit or slow the rate of growth in Southwest and Southern Rocky mountain regions.

    The 2015 beef cow inventory of the Southern Plains region (Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas) was down 13.2 percent from 2008, a decrease of over 1.1 million head.  This represents 42 percent of the total beef cow herd decline between 2008 and 2015.  This region will clearly play a central role in U.S. beef cow herd expansion in the coming years.  Parts of the region are still experiencing severe to exceptional drought conditions.  The 6.2 percent herd expansion in 2014 in the Southern Plains may be difficult to maintain if drought conditions do not improve significantly.  Moreover, herd expansion could be halted or reversed if drought conditions redevelop in the region. 

    While the final beef cow herd total for this expansion is unknown, it seems likely that the industry will be rebuilding or trying to rebuild for the remainder of the decade.  Much of the herd growth will be in the Southern Plains with proportionately more growth likely in the western half of the country compared to the eastern half.

    -- Glenn Selk, Oklahoma State University


    Margin between the Choice Boxed Beef Cutout & Feeder Steers:
    5 Year Average: $44.01 -- This Week: $36.54

    Out of Kilter:
    A good way to determine if something is, “going on” in a market is by noticing when market relationships are out of kilter. Cattle and grains typically have a positive correlation. They tend to move in tandem. Moderately increase the price of corn and the cattle will follow suit. The opposite is also true as the cost of feed declines, so does the cost of production. However, when this relationship breaks down, its because one market can't keep pace or pass on the costs of the other. 

    That is what occurred in the spring of 2012 with cattle and corn. The price of feed exceeded the livestock market's ability to pass on the costs.  Over the 2013 summer months, the gap was erased and corn went "Out of Kilter" last fall.  A correction started in January but ran out of steam in view of surging cattle prices and plummeting corn prices.

    Normally, the value of 25 bushels of corn is approximately equal to the price per cwt. for feeder steers.

    5 Year Moving Average:

    Crude/Cattle Correlation:
    The chart below shows a fairly consistent correlation between the price for a barrel of crude oil and the per cwt. price for slaughter cattle.  Since it is unlikely the price of cattle affects the price of oil on the world market, it might be assumed the price of crude oil affects the price of cattle, but that is unlikely as well.  It is more likely that economic factors affecting demand for crude oil have a similar effect on demand for beef.

    Accordingly, in the absence of geo/political events disrupting or distorting oil supply, since price trends occur slightly sooner in the crude oil market, crude oil has been a good indicator of the direction of near term cattle prices. However, with increased supplies of crude oil and decreased supplies of slaughter cattle, an "Out of Kilter" situation between the two commodities has developed.

    5 Year Moving Average:

    Slaughter Cows & Bulls:
    Slaughter cows and bulls sold mostly steady to 1.00 higher.

    USDA's Cutter cow carcass cut-out value Friday at noon was 231.18 -- Down $0.58 from last Friday.

                  %Lean    Weight        Colorado           Oklahoma         Alabama 
    Breakers 75-80%   1100-1600   112.00-116.00   114.00-121.00   111.00-118.00
    Boners    80-85%   1000-1450   111.00-117.00   115.00-123.00   114.00-117.00
    Lean       85-90%   1000-1300   105.00-110.00   106.00-113.00   105.00-109.00
    Bulls       88-92%   1300-2500   134. 00-135.00  136.00-142.00   135.00-138.00

                         Confirmed     Week Ago     Year Ago   Week to Date  Week Ago    Year Ago
    NATIONAL        6,456            7,786           7,297         32,734           35,456          32,160
    S CENTRAL      2,119            1,852           1,996          8,962             8,954            7,407
    N CENTRAL         604              816              505          2,450             3,016            2,366
    EAST                1,415           2,134           2,171          8,942             9,553            9,022
    WEST               1,375           1,745           1,165          6,831             8,356            6,102 
    MIDWEST            943           1,239           1,460          5,549             5,577            7,263 

    Weekly Hay Reports:"Click" on links for detailed report
    Weekly Feedstuffs Market Review:
    The USDA Market News Service reports feed ingredient prices for the week ending March 31, were mixed compared to last Tuesday. 
    • Soybean Meal was mixed, 5.00 lower to 8.00 higher, mostly 0.50 to 4.10 lower.  Cottonseed Meal was steady to 15.00 lower.   Canola Meal was mixed, 6.00 lower to 5.00 higher.  Linseed Meal was steady.  Sunflower Meal was 5.00 to 10.00 higher. 
    • Whole Cottonseed was steady to 5.00 lower.
    • Crude Soybean Oil was 47 to 72 higher, mostly 72 higher.  Crude Corn Oil was steady. 
    • Ruminant Meat and Bone Meal was steady to 30.00 higher.  Ruminant Blood Meal was steady to 75.00 higher.  Feather Meal was mixed 50.00 lower to 20.00 higher, mostly 25.00-50.00 lower. Menhaden Fishmeal was steady. 
    • Corn Hominy was steady.  Gluten Feed was steady to 20.00 lower. Corn Gluten Meal was steady to 20.00 lower. 
    • Distillers Dried Grains were mixed, 13.00 lower to 7.00 higher mostly steady to 7.00 higher. 
    • Wheat middlings were mixed, 27.00 lower to 10.00 higher, mostly steady to 22.00 lower.  Wheat millrun offers were steady to 10.00 lower.

    ADT Clarification: Selling at a Livestock Auction Market:
    The Animal Disease Traceability (ADT) rule went into effect on March 11, 2013. However, after a 2-year grace period, the final component of the rule went into effect this month. Many producers have been asking questions recently to ensure they are complying with the rule. In some cases, there has been a misconception that the rule prohibits producers from traveling to a market across state lines to sell cattle. This is not true. In fact, in most cases, when selling at market producers do not need to do anything different because they have the auction market owners can help ensure the rules are followed. 

    It is important to note that state rules still apply and are not consistent across the United States. Any questions about shipping to another state can be answered by the State Veterinarian's office in the receiving state. 

    THE 2015 PHASE IN

    As of March 11, 2015, ear tags applied to cattle on or after this date must have an animal identification number beginning with the 840 or other prefix representing a U.S. territory in order to be recognized as official identification. The tag must also bear an official ear tag shield.

    This does not change what animals require official identification or when official identification is required. Rather, USDA simply allowed a two-year phase in period to ensure ear tags being used as official identification would meet the standards listed above.

    The ADT rule only applies to cattle moving from one state to another and not those staying in state. For cattle, the following animals must be identified with official ID if traveling in interstate commerce:

    • All sexually intact cattle and bison over 18 months of age,
    • All female dairy cattle of any age,
    • All dairy males (intact or castrated) born after March 11, 2013, and
    • Cattle and bison of any age used for rodeo, shows, exhibition, and recreational events. 
    • Cattle requiring official identification must have an Interstate Certificate of Veterinary Inspection (ICVI), commonly called a health certificate, or alternate documentation agreed on by the state to move across state lines. 
    Shipping to Market or Slaughter

    There is some flexibility built into the rule. Cattle requiring official ID may move across state lines directly to an approved livestock facility, including many livestock markets, without a health certificate if moved on an owner-shipper statement. Information required to be included on an owner-shipper statement, such as the location from which the animals are moved interstate and the destination of the animals, is spelled out in the ADT rule. In some cases, and existing document such as a tag in slip at livestock markets have been used as an owner-shipper statements.

    Additionally, cattle can move to an approved tagging site, including many livestock markets, prior to being identified as they will be identified at the approved tagging site.

    In another exception, cattle moved direct-to-slaughter can move with approved backtags instead of official identification, even if moving between states.

    State Veterinarian Decisions

    State Veterinarians also have the ability to make some key decisions under the rule. While official eartags always qualify as official identification, State Veterinarians may accept the use of brands or tattoos accompanied by breed registration documents as official identification when agreed to by both the shipping and receiving states. State Veterinarians may also accept movement documentation other than an ICVI, as long as both the shipping and receiving state agree on the alternative document.


    The ADT requirements are in addition to state requirements for livestock identification, documentation, and disease testing for cattle movement in their states. Veterinarians shipping to a state where they are unsure of import requirements should contact the State Veterinarian’s office in the receiving state for specific requirements. 


    For the first year under ADT, USDA focused its efforts on education about the rule. On March 4, 2014 USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) administrator Kevin Shea sent out a bulletin about the next phase ADT implementation. While USDA will continue to work with people not in compliance to educate them about the requirements, USDA will also pursue penalties in situations where an individual repeatedly fails to comply with the regulatory requirements. USDA stated its priorities are:

    1. Official Identification of Cattle
    2. Proper Administration of Interstate Certificates of Veterinary Inspection (ICVI)
    3. Collection of ID at Slaughter 
    Livestock Marketing Association

    Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection:
    Total red meat production under Federal inspection for the week ending Saturday, April 04, 2015 was estimated at 903.5 million lbs. according to the U.S.Department of Agriculture's Marketing Service. This was 2.5 percent lower than a week ago and 0.0 percent higher than a year ago.  Cumulative meat production for the year to date was 0.1 percent lower compared to the previous year.

    Bullish/Bearish Consensus:
    The theory behind the "Bullish/Bearish Consensus" indicator is when the public reaches a consensus, they are usually wrong:
    • They get too bullish after prices have risen, and too bearish after they have already fallen.
    Because of this tendency, there are often extremes in opinion right before major changes in trend:
    • When the public reaches a bullish extreme, i.e., a great majority thinks prices will keep rising, then prices often decline instead. 
    • And when they become too bearish, then prices tend to rise.
    So when Public Opinion moves above the red dotted line in the chart, it means that compared to other readings over the past year, you're seeing excessive optimism.  You also want to look at the absolute level of Opinion, too - if it's at 90%, then there's no question we're seeing an historic level of bullish opinion.  Watch for readings above 80% (or especially 90%) to spot those dangerous times when the public is overly enthusiastic about a commodity.

    Conversely, when Public Opinion moves below the green dotted line, then the public is excessively pessimistic about the commodity's prospects for further gains compared to their opinion over the past year.  Looking for absolute readings under 20% (or especially 10%) often indicates an upturn in the market.


    Bullish/Bearish Consensus - Cattle
    Last Updated: March 31st

    Bullish/Bearish Consensus - Corn
    Last Updated: March 31st

    Economic News:
    Stocks slightly higher in short trading week:  Stock prices were mixed for the holiday-shortened week. The smaller-cap benchmarks saw decent gains and outpaced the large-cap benchmarks, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite was slightly lower. Trading for the week ended Thursday due to the market's closure for Good Friday—as a result, U.S. markets will not react until Monday to the Commerce Department's closely watched monthly payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday morning.

    U.S. manufacturing data proves disappointing: Disappointing economic data at midweek also weighed on sentiment. On Tuesday, a gauge of business activity in the Midwest showed a slowdown in the manufacturing-heavy region. Slowing growth in factory activity was confirmed Wednesday by the Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers index, which declined for the fifth month in a row—although it remained slightly positive. The Commerce Department offered slightly better manufacturing news on Thursday, when it announced that factory orders had crept upward in February for the first time in several months.

    Strong dollar weighs especially heavy on large-caps: Analysts observe that the strong dollar is taking a disproportionate toll on the earnings of large-cap companies in the S&P 500, which get well over one-third of their revenues from overseas. In contrast, the small-cap companies in the Russell 2000 Index get roughly one-fifth of their revenues from foreign sales. In the final quarter of 2014, small-cap companies enjoyed more than three times the earnings growth and over five times the sales growth of their large-cap counterparts.

    • The jobs report was a big miss. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added 126,000 jobs in March, way less than the expected gain of 245,000 jobs. This ends the 12-month streak of payroll gains over 200,000 and is the lowest number of monthly job gains since December 2013.

    "Click Here" to view a Slide Show of Drought Monitor maps for the last 12 weeks

    Looking Ahead:
    • Rain from the lower and middle Mississippi Valley into New England will contrast with mostly dry conditions across the Southeast and Gulf Coast as well as from the Plains into the Southwest. A strong cold front will bring temporary relief from unseasonable warmth over the Plains, though above-normal temperatures will return by the weekend. Rainfall associated with the front will be light on the Plains, and generally confined to central and northern-most portions of the region. However, rain will intensify as the cold front marches east, with 5-day totals of 1 to 3 inches possible from the northern Delta into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. In contrast, dry conditions are expected from the Carolinas to the immediate Gulf Coast. Out west, some showers and high-elevation snow will overspread the Northwest during the weekend, while the Southwest and Four Corners Region remain dry. 
    • The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for April 7–11 calls favorably cooler- and wetter-than-normal weather from the Pacific Coast into the Great Basin, including California. Likewise, wetter-than-normal weather is also expected from the Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast States into the Northeast. In contrast, drier-than-normal conditions will prevail across the Rockies and Great Plains. East of the Rockies, abnormal warmth over southern portions of the Corn Belt and Mid-Atlantic States will contrast from cooler-than-normal weather across the northern Great Lakes and New England.


    Australian Drought & Beef Imports:
    Beef imports keep streaming into the U.S. especially from drought-stricken Australia and this continues to keep a lid on trimmings prices. For Q1 Aussie beef imported here increased remarkably over 50% from 2014. Domestic 90 ground beef has slipped a couple of bucks this week but continue to trade $20/cwt higher than a year ago in a tight 2-month range between $290 and $296 which, in of itself is certainly informative.

    Feedyard Closeouts: Profit/(Loss)
    • Typical closeout for steers sold this week & hedged when placed on feed: ($67.33)
    • Typical closeout for un-hedged steers sold this week: ($94.19)
    • Projected closeout based on the futures & estimated Cost of Gain for steers placed on feed this week: ($103.73)

    Slaughter Cattle:
    Friday in the Southern Plains trading and demand have been moderate. Compared to last week live sales sold 2.00 higher at 167.00. In Nebraska trading has been slow to moderate on good demand. Compared to last week live sales sold .50 to 2.50 higher from 167.00 to 169.00. Dressed sales sold 3.00 to 5.00 higher from 265.00 to 268.00. In Colorado trading has been moderate on light demand. Compared to last week live sales sold 5.00 higher at 170.00. Thus far for Friday in the Western Cornbelt trading been moderate on good demand. Compared to last week live sales sold 2.00 to 3.00 higher from 167.00 to 168.00 and dressed sales sold 3.00 to 4.00 higher from 265.00 to 267.00.
    Livestock Slaughter under Federal Inspection:
                                                CATTLE   CALVES      HOGS      SHEEP
    Friday 04/03/2015        (est)       97,000      2,000         411,000       8,000
    Week ago (est)                         98,000      2,000         422,000       8,000
    Year ago (act)                         106,000      3,000         370,000       7,000
    Week to date (est)                  518,000     10,000      2,134,000     52,000
    Same Period Last Week (est)  517,000     10,000      2,155,000     47,000
    Same Period Last Year (act)    576,000     13,000      1,992,000     43,000

    Saturday 04/04/2015      (est)      7,000         0              65,000         0
    Week ago (est)                         17,000         0            115,000         0
    Year ago (act)                          11,000         0              23,000       1,000
    Week to date (est)                  525,000     10,000     2,199,000     52,000
    Same Period Last Week (est)  534,000     10,000     2,270,000      47,000
    Same Period Last Year* (act)   587,000     12,000     2,014,000     44,000
    2015 Year to Date                7,153,000   123,000    29,862,000   524,000
    2014 *Year to Date               7,719,000   175,000    28,565,000   532,000
    Percent change                     -7.3%       -29.7%        4.5%        -1.6%

    Negotiated prices paid for Slaughter Steers and Heifers:

    Live basis             Steers                               Heifers
    Over 80% Choice    165.00-170.00 avg 167.84   167.00-168.00 avg 167.64
    65 - 80% Choice     166.00-169.00 avg 167.33   166.00-168.00 avg 167.20
    35 - 65% Choice     167.00-168.00 avg 167.17   167.00-167.00 avg 167.00
    0 - 35% Choice             -                                           -
    Total all grades     165.00-170.00 avg 167.53   166.00-168.00 avg 167.43

    Dressed basis
    Over 80% Choice    265.00-267.00 avg 265.49   263.00-271.00 avg 265.47
    65 - 80% Choice     265.00-268.00 avg 266.00   265.00-268.00 avg 265.92
    35 - 65% Choice     267.00-267.00 avg 267.00   267.00-267.00 avg 267.00
    0 - 35% Choice             -                                           -
    Total all grades    265.00-268.00 avg 265.85   263.00-271.00 avg 265.90



    National Grain Summary:
    Compared to last week, wheat traded with sharply higher gains as drought areas in the western Plains have expanded with weather in the Plain states being closely watched.  The stocks for Hard Red Winter Wheat are tighter than normal. 

    USDA’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report was issued on Tuesday and pointed to larger than expected corn supplies and smaller than expected soybean supplies. 

    • USDA estimated 89.2 million acres of corn would be planted which is 1.5 percent lower than last year but 460,000 more acres than expected by analysts.  March 1 corn stocks were pegged at 7,740 billion bushels, 11 percent more than last year and 130 million bushels more than expected. 
    • Soybean stocks were estimated slightly lower than expected at 1.33 billion bushels but still but 34 percent more than last year’s low levels.  Weekly export sales for corn totaled 17.0 mb with 16.0 mb for 2014-2015 marketing year.  Soybeans came in at 21.9 mb with 1.0 mb for 2014-2015 marketing year. 
    • Wheat had export sales of 10.8 mb with 6.0 mb for 2014-2015 marketing year. 
    Corn Futures Summary: Corn followed wheat higher Thursday; markets are closed Friday. Corn futures fluctuated little overnight, but followed wheat modestly higher today. The weekly USDA Export Sales report had little impact. Traders may also have thought Tuesday’s post-report breakdown was overdone and/or short-covering before the long weekend. May corn futures closed 4.75 cents to $3.865/bushel Thursday, while December added 2.75 to $4.095.

    Soybean Futures Summary: Thursday’s soy action seems confused. Competing influences apparently affected the soy complex today. For example, the Export Sales report stated very low old-crop bean sales last week, but old-crop meal and new crop bean and meal totals were rather impressive. Moreover, the USDA’s daily reporting system indicated a 118,000 tonne sale to an unknown destination; the fact that it was for 2015/16 probably reduced its impact. Ultimately, talk of incipient Argentine production appeared to weigh on beans and meal, while active lifting of crush spreads apparently boosted oil prices. May soybean futures slumped 3.75 cents to $9.86/bushel as Thursday’s CBOT session ended, while May soyoil rebounded 0.35 cents 31.04 cents/pound, and May meal dropped $4.6 to $327.3/ton.

    Wheat Futures Summary: The wheat markets bumped up against chart resistance. Thursday’s wheat export sales data were not impressive, but seemingly did little to discourage bulls. Talk of persistent southern Plains dryness reportedly powered the morning rise, but bullish interests proved unable to penetrate major chart resistance at moderately higher levels, thereby seeming to trigger the late setback. May CBOT wheat climbed 7.75 cents to $5.3625/bushel in late Thursday action, while May KC wheat vaulted 10.75 cents to $5.8275/bushel, and May MWE wheat moved up 5.0 to $5.955.

    USDA Grain Stocks Report

    Corn Stocks Up 11 Percent from March 2014
    Soybean Stocks Up 34 Percent
    All Wheat Stocks Up 6 Percent

    • Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2015 totaled 7.74 billion bushels, up 11 percent from March 1, 2014. Of the total stocks, 4.38 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 13 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.36 billion bushels, are up 7 percent from a year ago. The December 2014 - February 2015 indicated disappearance is 3.47 billion bushels, compared with 3.44 billion bushels during the same period last year.
    • Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2015 totaled 1.33 billion bushels, up 34 percent from March 1, 2014. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 609 million bushels, up 60 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 725 million bushels, are up 18 percent from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2014 - February 2015 quarter totaled 1.19 billion bushels, up 3 percent from the same period a year earlier.
    • All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2015 totaled 1.12 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 279 million bushels, up 17 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 846 million bushels, are up 3 percent from a year ago. The December 2014 - February 2015 indicated disappearance is 405 million bushels, down 3 percent from the same period a year earlier.
      Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2015 totaled 37.6 million bushels, down 1 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 16.2 million bushels, are down 22 percent from March 1, 2014. Off-farm stocks totaled 21.4 million bushels, up 23 percent from a year ago. The December 2014 - February 2015 indicated disappearance of 6.43 million bushels is down 59 percent from the same period a year earlier.

    Five Year Moving Average - Corn & Wheat

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