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Weekly Market Summary
For the week ending June 16, 2017
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The Cattle Range Market Trendlines:
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The market weakened significantly this week as increasing supplies of beef converged with typical  diminishing summer demand.  As temperatures rise, retailers feature beef less and pork & chicken more. 
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10 Day Market Trendline
Change from Previous Day: -0.10%
 Change from 10 Days Ago: -5.75%
Change from 60 Days Ago: +9.35%
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60 Day Market Trendline
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The Trendlines are indicators of overall cattle/beef market strength and are based on daily market factors.  Each daily factor is the aggregate weighted total of the Gain/(Loss) for 12 market indicators compared to the previous trading day. The angle indicates direction & velocity of the trend.
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  • View previous Summaries in the..WMS Archives

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  • For daily news, check TCR's Cattle Industry News
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    Regular Contents: 
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  • Weekly Market Overview.
  • National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary.
  • Stocker & Feeder Steers.
  • Stocker & Feeder Cattle Weekly Receipts.
  • 5 Year Moving Avg. - Stocker, Feeder, & Slaughter Steers.
  • Selected Auction Reports.
  • Direct Sales of Feeder & Stocker Cattle.
  • Representative Sales of Cow & Pairs.
  • Canadian Cattle.
  • USDA National Retail Beef Report.
  • Photo of the Week.
  • Shootin' the Bull Weekly Analysis.
  • U.S. Dollar - 6 Month Chart.
  • Choice Boxed Beef Cutout, Slaughter, & Feeder Steers.
  • Feeder Steers/Corn Correlation.
  • Slaughter Cows & Bulls.
  • Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection.
  • Weekly Hay Reports.
  • Weekly Feedstuffs Market Review.
  • Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Cattle & Corn.
  • Stock Markets & Economic News.
  • Weather Outlook.
  • Feedyard Closeouts: Profit/(Loss).
  • Slaughter Cattle.
  • Corn Crop Condition.
  • National Grain Summary.
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    Of Possible Interest:  The views expressed in the content below are included in the WMS because we found them to be of interest but do not necessarily reflect the views of The Cattle Range.
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    Weekly Market Overview:
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    On-Line Store
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    National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary:
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    RECEIPTS:  Auctions   Direct  Video/Internet   Total
    This Week     146,700     32,500           200         179,400
    This Week     177,700     68,000        30,700       276,400
    Last Year       124,000     20,100        83,000       227,100

    Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold 5.00 to 10.00 lower. Many market reports throughout the Plains states noted rising temperatures affecting the receipts as is typical for this time of year. Receipts start curtailing through June, a few auctions will start back up in July and into August. Many sales go to summer schedules with sales every two or three weeks. Feedyard pen space is almost getting to a premium now after the large supplies of feeders going through the marketplace in the last 45-60 days. A hefty price of 140.10 was paid for a load of 1006 lb steers in St Joseph, MO on Wednesday. In addition, two and a half loads of their little brothers weighing 914 lbs sold at 151.10.

    The good old adage of "what goes up, must come down" is a great descriptor for this week. After moving upward from late May through early June, CME cattle futures and fed cattle prices took a swan dive turning south this week, starting Monday with sharp losses and continuing through the mid week. Thursday and Friday did close higher as the August feeder cattle futures settled at 147.87, down 6.30 for the week. All Feeder Cattle contracts closed from 6.27 to 6.75 lower than last week. Current month June Live Cattle futures finished the week at 121.70, down 9.55 for the week while all other Live Cattle contracts were 4.43 to 5.68 lower on the week. Hedge accounts were getting money sent back to them after days and weeks of making margin calls. However, the double edged sword of that is that the cattle are now not worth as much as they once were. Cash fed cattle trading was light to moderate as bids and asking prices are sharply lower this week.

    On Tuesday live sales in Kansas traded 4.00-7.00 lower from 130.00-134.00, with a few live sales reported on Wednesday at 128.00- 130.00 in Kansas and Nebraska and dressed sales at 200.00-215.00, 5.00 to 18.00 lower than a week ago. Cash bids got weaker as the week went on and there were near 6,000 head sold on Friday in Nebraska at the 200.00 level. The Choice-Select spread has exceeded 30.00 this week as packers continue to pursue the higher quality product from showlists that are reported to be on the green side. Choice boxed-beef closed 1.37 lower than last Friday at 249.84 and Select was .49 lower at 219.80. Auction volume this week included 52 percent weighing over 600 lbs and 41 percent heifers.

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    Stocker Steers:
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    Feeder Steers:
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    Stocker & Feeder Cattle Weekly Receipts:
    Weekly sales of Stocker Calves & Feeder Cattle sold via auctions, direct country sales, and video/Internet sales as reported by the UDSA Market News
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    Five Year Moving Average - Stocker, Feeder, & Slaughter Steers:
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    Cattle Futures Summary: Live cattle futures posted gains of 20 to 67.5 cents in the back months, as June, down 7.28% on the week, was 80 cents lower. Feeder cattle futures were 42.5 to 97.5 cents in the green on Friday, after a week that saw August drop 4.09% The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.66 on June 15 at $151.07. Wholesale beef prices were mixed in the afternoon report, with choice boxes 10 cents higher at $249.84. Select was down 73 cents, with an average of $219.80. Cash sales this week have been in the $130 range in the North, with $128 in the South. Estimated FI cattle slaughter through tomorrow is 628,000 head, up 6,000 from last week and 22,000 head more than the same week a year ago.
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    Selected Auction Reports:
    "Click" on individual.auction links.for complete report
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    Green Forest Livestock Auction - Green Forest AR
    Receipts:  825    Last Week:  779    Year Ago:  743
    Compared to one week earlier, slaughter cows steady to 3.00 higher, slaughter bulls steady to 3.00 lower, feeder steers and heifers mostly steady, feeder bulls steady to 3.00 lower, steer calves steady to 3.00 lower, bull calves 2.00 to 4.00 lower, heifer calves steady to 3.00
    lower, replacement cows mostly steady.

    Mitchell Livestock Wtd Avg Report - Mitchell SD
    Receipts:  2360    Last Week:  10,826    Year Ago:  1155
    Compared to last week:  Much lighter receipts than last week.  Feeder steers best comparison was those weighing 850-900 lbs and 1000-1050 lbs selling 8.00 to 10.00 lower.  Feeder heifers 800-850 lbs 8.00 to 10.00 lower, 900-950 lbs 5.00 to 6.00 lower.

    El Reno Cattle Narrative - El Reno OK
    Receipts          Week Ago             Year Ago
    Total Receipts:              8,732               9,818             9,554
    Feeder Cattle:              8,732(100%)         9,818(100%)          100(100%)
    *** Final Report from 06/13-14/2017***  Compared to last week:  Feeder steers sold 5.00-10.00 lower.   Feeder heifers under 800 lbs traded mostly 5.00-8.00 lower, over 800 lbs 2.00- 400 lower.  Steer and heifer calves sold mostly 2.00-4.00 lower on limited comparable offerings.

    Tulia Livestock Auction - Tulia TX
    Receipts:  2402    Last Week:  3576    Year Ago:  2154
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers sold 4.00 to 8.00 lower.  Trade was fairly active on good demand.  Triple digit temperatures were in the area throughout the week.  Slaughter cows and bulls made up 6 percent, 1 percent replacements and 93 percent feeders.

    Cullman Stockyard - Cullman AL
    Receipts:  1464    Last Week:  998    Year Ago:  1228
    Compared to last week: Slaughter cows sold steady, bulls sold 1.00 to 2.00 lower. Feeder bulls and steers sold 3.00 to 4.00 lower. Feeder heifers sold 3.00 to 5.00 lower. Replacement cows and pairs sold mostly steady.

    Pratt Livestock Feeder Cattle Auction - Pratt, KS
    Receipts:  1748    Last Week:  3948    Year Ago:  1992
    Compared to last week: Feeder steers 700-900 lbs 4.00-7.00 lower; 900-950 lbs firm to 1.00 higher. Feeder heifers not enough Medium and Large 1 for a market test. Not enough steer and heifer calves for a market test. Trade slow and demand moderate.

    Tri-State Livestock Auction Market - McCook NE
    Receipts:  1525    Last Week:  1000    Year Ago:  0
    Not enough to show a comparison in weight classes. Demand was good for the supply of feeder cattle offered. Feeders consisted 1100 offered and the rest was slaughter and pairs. Steers accounted for 36 percent and heifers 64 percent of the offering.

    Oklahoma National Stockyards - Oklahoma City OK
    Receipts          Week Ago             Year Ago
    Total Receipts:             7,594               9,269              9,942
    Feeder Cattle:              7,594(100%)         9,269(100%)        9,942(100%)
    ***Add Close Updating With Actual Receipts*** Compared to last week:   Feeder steers and heifers traded 2.00-5.00 lower.  Heavier steer and heifer calves traded 1.00-5.00 lower.  Demand moderate.  Quality average to attractive.  Temperatures have started to surge into the 90's consistently in the trading area.

    Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg - Carthage MO
    Receipts           Week Ago              Year Ago
    Total Receipts:                5,206                9,944                5,465
    Feeder Cattle:                 5,206(100%)          9,944(100%)          5,465(100%)
    ***CLOSE***   Compared to last week, steer calves 7.00 to 12.00 lower, yearling steers 3.00 to 6.00 lower,  heifer calves and yearling heifers 2.00 to 4.00 lower.  Demand and supply moderate.   Feeder cattle under pressure as Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures closed with triple digit losses.

    Sioux Falls Regional Livestock wtd Avg Report - Worthing SD
    Receipts:  7208    Last Week:  1538    Year Ago:  741
    Compared to last week:  Much larger receipts of feeder steers and heifers than last week, few comparable sales of steers and heifers steady to higher undertones.  Very good demand for this annual customer appreciation BBQ sale.

    Blue Grass South Livestock Market - Stanford KY
    Receipts:  335    Last Week:  1004    Year Ago:  462
    Compared to last Monday:Feeder steers 2.00-4.00 lower,Feeder heifers 1.00-2.00 lower,Good demand on a lite test of average quality.Slaughter cows 1.00-3.00 lower,Slaughter bulls steady,Good demand for slaughter classes.

    Clovis Livestock Auction - Clovis NM
    Receipts:  2260            Week Ago: 2266            Year Ago: 1759
    Compared to two weeks ago:  No comparison with last week due to reporter's absence.  Compared to 2 weeks ago, feeder steers and heifers 4.00-5.00 lower; instances 8.00-9.00 lower under 600 lbs.  Slaughter cows steady to 2.00 higher; bulls 3.00 higher though quality more attractive.

    Cattleman's Livestock Auction - Dalhart, TX
    Cattle and Calves: 1834         Week ago: 1870      Year Ago:  1739
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers mostly weak to 3.00 lower.  Supply included several packages of calves right off their others, some with pre-weaning shots.  Slaughter cows and bulls 1.00-2.00 lower.

    Huss Platte Valley Auction - Kearney NE
    Receipts:  2200    Two Weeks Ago:  2019    Year Ago:  1931
    Compared to two weeks ago, 750-950 lbs steers sold 7.00 lower. Heifers 700-800 lbs sold 8.00 lower over 800 lbs heifers sold steady to 4.00 higher. Market activity was moderate with moderate demand from the buyers in the crowd. Around 400 head of slaughter cows and bulls along with a few bred cows and cow/calf pairs sold in the mix.

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    Direct Sales of Feeder & Stocker Cattle:
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    WY, Western NE & Western Dakotas Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
    Receipts:  1,920    Week Ago:  950     Year Ago:  175
    Compared to last week, large string of high 7 weight heifers sold fully steady despite sharp losses in the CME cattle boards most of the week. Demand remains good as current close-outs continue to make money for the feedlots. 

    AZ-CA-NV Weekly Feeder Cattle Review (Fri)
    Confirmed: 2476 
    Compared to last week, 300 lb Holstein steers for September delivery 10.00-15.00 lower.  Trade and demand moderate. Cattle weighing over 600 lbs totaled 23 percent.  Heifers totaled 0 percent.

    IA-South MN Direct Feeder Cattle Weekly (Mon)
    Receipts:  125     Last Week:  0     Last Year: 96
    Compared to the last week:  Feeder steers and heifers not tested. Prices based on net weights FOB after a 3 percent shrink or equivalent and 5-10 cent slide on calves and 4-6 cent slide on yearlings from base weights. 

    Colorado Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
    Receipts: 4,017        Last Week 3,038        Last Year: 0 
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers not tested for current FOB delivery last week.  Demand moderate. Supply consisted of 98 percent over 600 lbs; 71 percent heifers. 

    Kansas Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
    Receipts: 257          Last Week 802          Last Year 343 
    Compared with last week: Not enough comparable Current FOB sales for a full test.  Sales confirmed on 121 steers, 136 heifers for a total of 257 head compared with 802 last week and 343 last year.  Volume includes 100 percent 600 lbs and over. 

    Montana Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
    Receipts: 0        Last Week 2,960         Last Year 125 
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers not well Tested last week so no trend is available.  Supply included 0 percent over 600 lbs; 0 percent heifers.  Unless otherwise stated prices are FOB weigh point with a 2-3 percent shrink or equivalent and with a 8-12 cent slide on calves and 4-8 cent slide on yearlings from base weights.

    New Mexico Feeder Cattle Report (Mon)
    Receipts:  500    Last Week:  2000    Year Ago:  400
    Compared to last week:  Not enough comparable sales for an adequate market trend.  Trade was slow on light to moderate demand.  Supply consisted of 100 percent steers and 100 percent of the offering weighed over 600 lbs.  Note:  Feeder cattle prices based on net weights FOB after 3 percent pencil shrink.

    Northwest Wtd Avg Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
    Receipts:  2,000    Last Week:  4,328    Year Ago:  2,945
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers not well tested for current FOB basis.  Demand moderate.  The feeder supply included 26 percent steers and 75 percent heifers.  Near 99 percent of the supply weighed over 600 lbs. 

    Oklahoma Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
    Receipts: 1,462        Last Week 6,277        Last Year 903 
    Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers were lightly Tested on a Current FOB basis. Demand moderate for all classes. Receipts this week consisted of 100 percent over 600 lbs and 48 percent heifers.

    Texas Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
    Receipts:  18,400    Last Week:  36,700    Year Ago:  17,200
    Compared to last week's current FOB sales:  Steers and heifers sold mostly 2.00 to 8.00 lower.  Trade was light to moderate on moderate demand. CME cattle futures struggled at the beginning of the week causing seller's to back off the market and curbed receipts. 
     

  • Extensive U.S. & Canadian Auction Results are available on The Cattle Range
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    Representative Sales of Cows & Pairs:
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    Reported by.USDA Market News for the week ending June 16th:
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    • McAlester, OK:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  1-6 yr old 800-1375 lbs 4-8 months bred 925.00-1325.00; 7-10 yr old 975-1325 lbs 4-8 months bred 970.00-1175.00 per head. 
      • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  1-6 yr old 900-1275 lb cow w/150-375 lb calf 1000.00-1400.00; 9-10 yr old 1000-1150 lb cow w/100-300 lb calf 1010.00-1380.00 per pair.
    • Oklahoma City, OK:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  5-6 yr old 800-1325 lbs 3-7 months bred 735.00-950.00; 3-6 yr old 1000-1575 lbs 2-7 months bred 1125.00-1310.00; 7-10 yr old 950-1375 lbs 3-7 months bred 800.00-1000.00 per head. 
      • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-8 yr old 850-1250 lb cow w/75-325 lb calf 1175.00-1485.00; 9-10 yr old 950-1150 lb cow w/75-200 lb calf 985.00-1310.00 per pair. 
    • Woodard, OK:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-4 yr old 1100-1450 lbs 5-8 months bred black 910.00-1225.00 per head.  Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  4-7 yr old 1225-1350 lb cow w/150-300 lb calf 1400.00-1425.00; 4-8 yr old 1000-1200 lb black 150-200 lb calf 1385.00-1600.00; 6-7 yr old 1150-1175 lb cows some black/or bred back w/300-325 lb calf 1635.00-1685.00 per pair. 
    • Clovis, NM:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 895-1300 lb cows 3-8 months bred 950.00-1075.00, per head; middle aged 1150-1350 lb cows 3-8 months bred 925.00-950.00, per head; aged 950-1305 lb cows 3-8 months bred, 875.00-950.00 per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 925-1575 lb cows w/100-225 lb calves 1275.00-1475.00, per pair; middle aged short solid indiv 1160 lb cow w/200 lb calf 1185.00, per pair; aged 925-1020 lb cows w/100-150 lb calves 800.00-1000.00, per pair.  First Calf heifers:  725-885 lb cow w/80-125 lb calves 1150.00-1575.00, per pair.
    • Roswell, NM:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 865-1350 lb cows 1-8 months bred 925.00-1250.00, per head; middle aged 955-1160 lb cows 3-8 months bred 910.00-975.00, per head; aged 1000-1170 lb cows 3-8 months bred 875.00-960.00, per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 900-1225 lb cows w/150-400 lb calves 975.00-1400.00, per pair; middle aged 740-1060 lb cows w/125-150 lb calves 900.00-950.00, per pair; aged 950-1025 lb cows w/125-225 lb calves 900.00-1085.00, per pair.
    • Joplin, MO:
      • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-7 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 925-1365 lbs 1100.00-1400.00, 1st stage 900-1075 lbs 1085.00-1100.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1100-1325 lbs 810.00-1000.00. Large 1-2  7 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 1420-1550 lbs 1030.00-1300.00. Medium and Large 2  2-7 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 825-1090 lbs 900.00-1050.00; short and solid mouth 2nd stage 1200 lb indiv. 875.00. Medium 1-2  3-6 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 750-1060 lbs 800.00-1050.00, 1st stage 1060 lb indiv. 925.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage few 935-1000 lbs 650.00-850.00 per head.
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  6 yrs to short and solid mouth couple 1100-1300 lb cows w/babies to 375 lb calves 1500.00; aged pkg. 1100 lb cows w/babies to 160 lb calves 1275.00. Medium and Large 2  6 yr 1300 lb cow w/130 lb calf 1175.00. Medium 1-2  2-4 yrs 900-975 lb cows w/baby calves 1000.00-1275.00 per pair.
    • Springfield, MO:
      • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 995-1360 lbs 1100.00-1435.00, 1st stage 1140 lb indiv. 900.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1105-1348 lbs 725.00-985.00.  Large 1  1 1/2-2 yrs 2nd stage 1385-1525 lbs 1400.00-1600.00. Large 1-2  5 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 1585-1750 lbs 1125.00-1260.00; short and solid mouth to aged 1390-1410 lbs 935.00-965.00. Medium and Large 2 3-7 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 920-1075 lbs 850.00-935.00. Medium 1-2  2-7 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 850-1025 lbs 800.00-1025.00, 1st stage couple 920-960 lbs 660.00-690.00 per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-6 yrs 910-1345 lb cows w/135-180 lb calves 1300.00-1400.00; broken mouth pkg. 1335 lb cows w/baby calves 1110.00.  Large 1-2  short and solid mouth 1585 lb cow w/baby calf 1110.00. Medium 1-2  3-6 yrs 800-955 lb cows w/190-400 lb calves 1400.00-1425.00 per pair.
    • West Plains, MO:
      • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-6 yr old 918-1570 lb cows in the 2nd to 3rd stage 1100.00-1400.00 per head, 1st stage 1050.00-1200.00 per head; 7 yrs to short-solid mouth 1110-1390 lb cows in the 2nd to 3rd stage 950.00-1175.00 per head.  Medium and Large 2  2-7 yr old 755-1220 lb cows in the 2nd to 3rd stage 800.00-1050.00 per head. Short-solid to broken mouth 775-1115 lb cows in the 2nd to 3rd stage 650.00-875.00 per head. 
      • Cow-Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  4-6 yr old 1150-1370 lb cows with 100-300 lb calves 1350.00-1500.00 per pair; Short-solid to broken mouth 1015-1225 lb cows with 100 lb calves 975.00-1175.00 per pair.  3-n-1 pkgs Short-solid mouth 1035-1100 lb cows in the 1st stage with 200-400 lb calves 1400.00-1500.00 per pair.  Medium and Large 2  2-6 yr old 730-1025 lb cows with 75-200 lb calves 1075.00-1350.00 per pair.
    • Riverton, WY:
      • Bred Cows: Heifers 1000-185 lbs few 1075.00; Young 1370-1550 lbs few 1225.00-1525.00, several 985-1465 lbs 925.00-1175.00; Middle Aged (Short Solids) 1195-1450 lbs few 1000.00-1185.00; Aged (Short Term) 1260-1335 lbs few 900.00-925.00 all per head. 
      • Cow/calf pairs: Heifers 1005-1325 lb heifers with 90-250 lb calves 1675.00-1925.00, few (longhorns) thin 640-905 lb heifers with 90-100 lb calves 735.00-800.00; Young couple packages 990-1175 lb cows with 200-225 lb calves 1900.00-1950.00, few 1195-1285 lb cows with 130-300 lb calves 1360.00-1625.00, couple 820-1165 lb cows with 120-175 lb calves 875.00-900.00; Middle Aged (Short Solids) 1260-1520 lb cows with 100-200 lb calves 1325.00-1425.00; Aged (Short Term) 1255-1520 lb cows with 100-275 lb calves 1200.00-1350.00, couple 1125-1315 lb cows with 150-175 lb calves 1175.00 all per head.
    • Torrington, WY:
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1 Heifer 3 yr old 1192 lbs with 175 lb calves 1975.00; Solid Mouth 1433 lbs with 200 lb calves 1750.00; Aged Short Term/Short Solid 1300 lbs with 225 lb calves 1300.00-1425.00.
    • Alabama:
      • Open and Bred Replacement Cows: Young to Middle Aged Large 2  0-3 months bred 950.00-1250.00; 4-6 months bred 1100.00-1400.00 up to 1500.00; 7-9 months bred 1300.00-1600.00.  Medium 2  0-3 months bred 750.00-1050.00; 4-6 months bred 1000.00-1300.00; 7-9 months bred 1150.00-1450.00.  Small 2  0-3 months bred 560.00-745.00; 4-6 months bred 625.00-850.00; 7-9 months bred 950.00-1225.00.  Aged:  Large 3  0-3 months bred 725.00-890.00; 4-6 months red 825.00-1000.00; 7-9 months bred 975.00-1225.00.  Medium 3  0-3 months bred 525.00-740.00; 4-6 months bred 600.00-800.00; 7-9 months bred 700.00-950.00. Small 3  0-3 months bred 335.00-480.00; 4-6 months bred 10.00-515.00.
    • Arkansas:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-7 year old 850-1250 lbs second & third stage 105.00-115.00/1025.00-1125.00, first stage open 86.00-96.00, 7-10 year old second & third stage 67.00-77.00/850.00-950.00 per head. 
      • Cow-Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-7 year old 800-1200 lb cow w/100-200 lb calf 1300.00-1400.00, few to 1725.00, w/200-300 lb calf 1200.00-1300.00, 7-10 year old w/100-200 lb calf 1050.00-1150.00 per pair.
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    Canadian Cattle:
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    Alberta Beef Producers: Alberta direct cattle sales so far this week have seen light trade develop with the bulk of dressed sales marked at 270.00 delivered while live sales have been reported on either side of 160.00. Cattle that traded this week were being scheduled for the beginning of July delivery. On a live basis fed cattle prices have dropped 30.00 over the past six weeks and are now at the lowest level since the end of February.
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    Canadian Cattle Prices:
    Prices have been converted to U.S. $/CWT. Grades changed to approximate U.S. equivalents
    Exchange Rate: Canadian dollar equivalent to $0.7403 U.S. dollars
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    Prices for the week ending June 9th:
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    The "Nord Fork"

    Replaces Flankers at Branding
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    Boxed Beef Prices & Trade Volume
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    Demand for Choice beef over the last four weeks has been impressive, possibly the best this decade for the weeks surrounding Memorial Day. The Choice Beef Cutout reached its highest value for the year-to-date early this week at $252.52 per cwt. on Monday. This was up $4 from the weekly average for the third week in May. Going back to 2010, the beef cutout value declined five years out of seven from mid-May to mid-June. The biggest price appreciation for that set of weeks during the last 7 years was an $8 gain in 2014.

    Looking at weekly price changes in the Choice Beef Cutout from mid-May to mid-June during the last seven years shows last year was the most similar to this year. Last year, the cutout in the week prior to Memorial Day declined $2 followed by a $1 drop during the holiday week and then a $3 increase in the first full week of June. This year, during those same weeks, the cutout declined $2, then $1 and finally climbed $5 last week (rounding error gets you to the $4 change referred to above). For sake of comparison, the price changes in 2014 for these weeks was up $3, down $2 and unchanged.

    Slaughter cattle price trends in both the cash and futures markets have been “spooked” this week, even as the Choice Beef Cutout has been resilient. The August Live Cattle contract closed last Friday at $123.85, but after three days of trading this week had slumped to below $118.00. USDA-AMS (Agriculture Marketing Service) reported negotiated cash trade last Friday at close to $136, but this week’s mid-week trade was at $129. Given this disconnect between finished product and on-the-hoof values, the issue of expectations is definitely in play relative to prospects for finished product values.

    Refocusing back on weekly prices trends in the Choice Beef Cutout for the next few weeks provides a better sense for understanding this week’s slaughter cattle price action. With last year’s cutout value mapping closely with this year’s, the concerns about what cutout values did in the second half of June appear to be coming to the fore. Last year, the Choice Beef Cutout was down slightly (close to unchanged) for the current week. This was followed by a $9 decline in the next week and an $8 decline for the last week in June. Laying this price template onto this year’s market still puts the Choice Beef Cutout slightly above $230, which is still a very high price from a historical perspective (see graph above).

    Underlying these expectations is the assumption about beef demand. Running these price changes off the current situation as a base period of some of the highest values in history makes some fairly rosy assumptions about product demand. Choice beef product negotiated cash trade volumes reported to USDA-AMS in the week following Memorial Day were the highest since early April, suggesting that holiday product clearances were favorable. Cutout values were 10% higher than in April, so speculative bargaining hunting is not a likely component of current demand. Choice beef trade volumes were running above a year earlier during the first few days of June, but since then have lagged, an indication that packer demand for cattle may also be receding.

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    U.S. Beef Exports to China Restarting
    Bloomberg News
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    The resumption of American beef exports to China after a 14-year hiatus took another step closer after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said trade rules have been finalized.

    The latest development was announced Monday by the USDA in a statement. It follows the agreement reached last month by the U.S. with China to promote market access for American products including beef amid a broader effort to reshape the trade relationship between the countries. China halted beef shipments in 2003 amid concerns about mad cow disease.

    Beef destined for China must be sourced from cattle that were born, raised and slaughtered in the U.S., or animals that were imported from Canada and Mexico before being slaughtered domestically, the USDA said separately on its website. Cattle must be traceable either to their birth farm or, if initially imported into the U.S., to the first place of residence or port of entry.

    "About 10 percent of U.S. cattle may meet traceability requirements," Derrell Peel, an agricultural economist at Oklahoma State University in Stillwater, said in a telephone interview. "If we see a noticeable increase in sales volume by the end of the year, that will be promising. It takes time to develop trade."

    Some trade groups and companies have been skeptical that U.S. beef exports to China will be significant. An executive at Brazil’s JBS SA, the world’s largest beef supplier, said last month that the deal won’t be a game-changer for the U.S. industry. The U.S. Meat Export Federation has said that U.S. shipments may see a slow start, while the market shows promise in the long term. There will be a period of adjustment and added costs involved with the new requirements, the group said in a Monday statement.

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    Cattle Traders Shrug Off U.S.-China Beef Progress
    Dow Jones Newswires
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    The U.S. Department of Agriculture outlined on Monday requirements for American exporters to start selling meat to China, the world's fastest growing beef market, including the need to trace cattle back to their birth farm or point of origin into the U.S.

    Adapting to the rules "will involve a period of adjustment," said U.S. Meat Export Federation president Philip Seng. In the short-term, "meeting these requirements will add costs and this will mean that U.S. beef is priced at a premium compared to other suppliers."

    Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said exports to China could resume in 10 days, though most analysts suggest few U.S. cattle fit the bill yet. Only around 2 or 3% of cattle on-feed in the U.S. would be eligible for export to China, said broker Troy Vetterkind in Thorp, Wis.

    Futures traders largely moved past the announcement to focus on growing domestic supply. Prices in the negotiated cash trade for cattle are widely expected to slide this week as more market-ready cattle become available. 

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    USDA National Retail Beef Report:
    Advertised Prices for Beef at Major Retail Supermarket Outlets
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    This week in beef retail, the Feature Rate is 8.5 percent lower, Special Rate charted a 5.4 percent increase, and the Activity index posted a 7.8 percent decrease. Grilling season is in full swing with demand hitting its stride as many consumers have the Bar-B-Que grills smoking and many are featuring beef on their summer menus. Rib, Round, and Brisket items saw more ad space while the Chuck, Loin, and Ground Beef items saw less. The cattle slaughter under federal inspection is 1.0 percent higher when compared to last week.
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    Photo of the Week:
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  • 275 Brangus Bred Heifers... FL Panhandle*.
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    Shootin' the Bull Weekly Analysis:
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    Here goes, with the weekend to ponder such.  As best I can tell, the major part of the massive expansion slowed greatly starting August of '16.  Greater numbers of heifers began being placed and increased cow kill that continues today.  Prior to that, there was the time frame in which holding back heifers was at its highest along with cow retention that took product off the market and produced a window of elevated calving.  It's thought that it is those time framed calves that are the current wall of cattle.  From information gathered on this weeks Daily Livestock Review, it does not appear that cattle numbers will increase to any extent not already accounted for the remainder of this year.  Information from Stats Canada leads me to believe that no expansion is taking place at this time with significantly higher placement numbers than retained.  Therefore, with almost 1/2 of the wall of cattle already supposedly chewed through, there shouldn't be any surge of calving anytime soon that would sharply increase numbers for sometime to come.  I do not believe that cow/calf operations have had the same coffer filling production year as the shorter feeding sectors have.  So, I don't anticipate this sector to expand.  In all actuality, if they were to not expand any, it may help what I'm about to get to. 

    The information gathered leads me to believe there is going to be a period of time in which the herd won't grow. This time frame is anticipated to have continued beef demand from both domestic and the growing demand anticipated from China and other countries.  This leads me to think that the discounts in the June and August '18 contract months might not be justified to the extent they currently are.  Especially with the most recent $7.00 plus drop.  I want to own these contract months.  I don't know how much pain will be associated with this trade.  However, it is $9.62 to the contract low and $31.60 for cash currently at $128.00 to drop to the contract low.  Not to say it won't or can't set a new low, it is that I do not believe the information above supports such.  There is no telling how long it will take to supersede the current pessimism in the markets and have the basis begin to converge. 

    What I believe is that without further increases of significance in inventory for sometime to come, the increase in domestic and export demand will keep cash prices elevated to the extent that basis convergence will materialize with a greater percentage from futures moving higher than cash lower.  I believe it has been the wide basis all along that drew such attention to the cattle market.  With convergence a known factor, due to physical delivery, traders simply traded the discrepancy. This discrepancy remains and is anticipated to follow similar patterns as this year.  That is, convergence.  Check your own statistics.  See where you think expansion will begin to wane.  The consumer and any changes in disposable income or discretionary spending habits will help dictate this trade as demand is perceived a key factor. 

    The price action this week forced a change to the wave count.  A through search of where I may have miscounted led me to a minor wave that was thought to have been a part of the major wave 2 correction.  By pushing the tail end of the major wave 2 correction into the major wave 3 count, I can see where I miscounted.  So, long story short, the wave count changed from being an intermediate wave 4 to the major wave 4.  The major wave 4 so far has unfolded as an "irregular" for the fat cattle and a "flat" for the feeder cattle.  Recognition of this has led me to not want to participate in this decline with hedged sales.  I do not want to sell such a discount in the fat cattle and the massive swap in basis from $17.00 under to $7.00 over is one whale of a swing.  This most recent swing in basis is perceived as exceptionally beneficial to feed yards as what was once $17.00 more in just a few months is now $7.00 cheaper than at present.  This is not anticipated to last long. 

    Back to the wave count.  The major wave 4 in the fats may or may not make a 5 wave move for what is now perceived as the C wave.  The C wave does tend to break down into 5 sub-waves.  In this case, with the feeders being a flat, there could unfold a 5 wave sideways pattern with a each sub-wave only 3 waves each.  Because this is a wave 4, and tremendous volatility is wreaking havoc, I won't hold anyone's feet to the fire on this.  However, I do not anticipate a bear market.  I anticipate the completion of the current major wave 4 that may or may not have one more new low, followed by a 5th wave to a new high. 

    Wrapping it up.  I recommend being long the June and August '18 live cattle, and the January '18 feeder cattle.  ***This is a sales solicitation***  However you wish to participate, remember the pain threshold is wide and insult to injury common place.  I'll have price points on the way up that if exceeded would lead to a specific price recommendation.  I'll do the same were further downside movement seen.  Other than that, I recommend you review the environment for yourself over the weekend and see what you think. 

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    Christopher B. Swift is a commodity broker and consultant with Swift Trading Company in Nashville, TN. Mr. Swift authors the daily commentaries "mid day cattle comment" and "Shootin' the Bull" commentary found on his website @ www.shootinthebull.com

    An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits.  You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. 
    PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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    Higher Feedyard Placements in 2017
    CME Group
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    Placements of cattle on feed during three of the first four months of this this year have been above the same months in 2016. The increases have been significantly above a year ago. The trend in expanded feedlot placements actually started in November and December of last year. So far this year, feedlot placements have exceeded a year ago by 595,000 head, an increase of 8%. The same comparison that also includes the last three months of 2016 shows an increase in placements of 981,000 head from a year earlier.

    The most pertinent source of cattle responsible for this increase in placements would be the US calf crops of 2016, and to a lesser extent 2015. The 2015 calf crop was up 565,000 head from the prior year and the 2016 calf crop increased by 996,000 head. Other factors to be considered would be the relative change in availability of imported feeder cattle and heifers kept for breeding purposes.

    USDA-NASS (National Agriculture Statistical Service) estimated earlier this year that end-of-2016 heifers retained for breeding purposes increased by 23,000 head from a year earlier, so this is basically a non-issue as a supplement or subtraction from cattle
    available to be placed in feedlots.

    Feeder cattle imports from Mexico and Canada, according to USDA-ERS (Economic Research Service), are up by 14,000 head from last October to this April. This does not put much of a dent in 981,000 head increase in placements over the same interval.

    The conclusion to be made from this data is that most of the increase in calf crops that has been registered for 2016, or earlier, has already been moved into feedlots. From this point forward, it becomes difficult to see how th e supply of calves or yearling cattlewill support any increase in feedlot placements relative to a year earlier. With that said, however, it is worth taking a peek at weekly feeder cattle receipt data compiled by USDA-AMS (Agriculture Marketing Service) for May.

    Total weekly feeder cattle receipts in May, as published in the AMS weekly report were up 14% from a year earlier. Auction receipts were up 16% while direct sales report to USDAAMS were up 13%. A look back at May 2016 showed weekly receipts down 19% from May 2015. Meanwhile feedlot placements, as estimated by USDA-NASS for May 2016 were up 10% from May 2015. It could be that May weekly feeder cattle receipt data is not that reliable of an indicator of feedlot placements. The weekly data does show a surge in trade volume during the second week in May, the week that followed feeder cattle prices climbing to the highest prices for the year-to-date.

    During that week, all cattle prices were weaker but feeders suffered more, proportionately, than slaughter cattle prices. 43% percent of auction receipts were heifers this May, versus 41% a year earlier. Direct feeder trade featured 41% heifers compared to 24% in May 2016.

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    Two-Sided Market
    Cassie Fish -- cassandrafish.com
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    After Wednesday’s rout, CME cattle futures have come up for air and are hanging out in green territory, once again attempting to alleviate grossly oversold intra-day technical indicators.

    Cash values have continued to slip and live trades have been rumored at $126-127 and dressed at $205, down from even yesterday let alone last week. Last week feels like it was last year, so quickly and violently have prices collapsed in both futures and the negotiated cash trade.

    Only boxed beef cutout values remain impervious to the fray, sustaining near the highest prices of the year which happen to be the highest prices for this week in June in history. Retailers have responded and May retail beef prices have pushed back over $6 per pound, a level that was maintained through 2015 and has not been seen since July 2016. It is difficult to interpret this data as anything but negative as the industry heads into greater fed cattle supplies coupled with heat of the summer. Packer margins ought to push out to new highs next week over $200 per head.

    Cattle futures have returned to the bottom of the trading range established in May. The May lows are technically critical and if penetrated will set in motion a technical wash-out. Open interest did decline yesterday on the break, but there is a sense that the potential flood gates of liquidation will be opened with a close below $116.77 in Aug LC. If that occurs by month end, it will establish a monthly key reversal, since Aug LC made a life of contract high last week. That is something not seen often.

    There also seems to be a sense of disbelief circulating that the market can’t really be in this much peril when the front-end fed cattle supply is current. Unfortunately, the willingness of packers to allow cattle feeders to effortlessly pull cattle forward for months no longer exists. The long-awaited increase in market-ready fed cattle supplies is upon the cattle feeding industry and prices must ultimately adjust to once again incentivize bigger kills and hopefully, by late summer, another round of aggressive retail beef featuring.

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    U.S. Dollar - 6 Month Chart:
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    Over the last 5 years, an average of around 10% of U.S. beef production has been exported, making exports an extremely important factor affecting beef and cattle prices.  A strong dollar depresses export demand.
  • U.S. Dollar Index
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    Choice Boxed Beef Cutout, Slaughter, & Feeder Steers:
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    Boxed beef cutout values steady to weak on moderate demand and offerings. Select and Choice rib, chuck, round, and loin cuts steady to firm. Beef trimmings moderately to sharply lower on light demand and moderate offerings.

    The average value of hide and offal for the five days ending Fri, Jun 16, 2017   was estimated at 11.69 per cwt., down 0.02 from last week and  up 0.13 from last year.

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    Slaughter Numbers & Weights Increase
    Daily Livestock Report
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    Total cattle slaughter last week was reported at 622,000 head, 13% higher than the previous (holiday) week and 4.7% higher than the same week a year ago. We do not have USDA estimates for the breakdown of fed and non fed cattle but our best guess at this point is that fed cattle slaughter for the week surpassed 500,000 head, making it the largest fed cattle slaughter week so far this year. If we are correct in our estimates, fed slaughter for the week was 3.6% higher than a year ago. The increase in fed cattle slaughter has come even as front end supplies have been particularly tight. The inventory of +150day cattle on May 1 was 32% less than the previous year and the inventory of +120 day cattle was 10% less than the previous year. According to USDA, total beef production last week was estimated at 489.9 million bounds, 1.7% higher than last year. Fed beef production for the week was steady to maybe under year ago levels due to a combination of lighter carcass weights as well as more heifers in the slaughter mix. Market participants will continue to focus on USDA reported steer weights for an indication of feedlot currentness. Keep in mind that the steer weight data reported by USDA on Thursday was for the week ending May 27.

    The chart above shows our projections for the week of June 3 and June 10. Those estimates are derived from slaughter weights reported by packers into the USDA Mandatory Price Reporting system. But even as weights may have been moving higher in the last two weeks, the increase in largely in line with what we would expect for this time of year. One needs to consider that cattle feeding was significantly disrupted at the end of April due to late spring snow storms and producers for the most part are still not where they should be for this time of year. There is still a wide gap between last year and this year, which in the short term will limit the supply of beef, particularly fat beef trimmings. The price of 50CL beef trim has adjusted lower but at $140/cwt it is not exactly a bargain for this time of year. Packers also have been quite successful in puttng more money on end cuts (rounds and chucks) and in turn this has helped support the beef cutout at much higher levels than earlier expected.

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    Feeder Steers/Corn Correlation:
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    Historically, the value of 25 bushels of corn has been approximately equal to the price per cwt. for feeder steers.
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    Slaughter Cows & Bulls:
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    Slaughter cows and bulls sold steady to 3.00 higher. 

    Cutter Cow Carcass  Cut-Out Value Friday was 180.17 -- Up 1.07 from last Friday. 

                      Weight         Nebraska        Oklahoma      Alabama 
    Breakers 1100-1600           --               69.00-72.00   63.00-67.00
    Boners     1000-1450   73.00-75.00    69.00-73.00   64.00-69.00
    Lean         1000-1300   66.00-71.00    69.00-72.00   59.00-64.00
    Bulls         1300-2500   96.50-102.00  91.00-96.00   89.00-94.00

                   Confirmed  Week Ago  Year Ago   YTD      Year Ago
    National       7,329        7,674        6,847      37,220      34,371
    S Central     2,348        2,161        1,991      10,668        9,643
    N Central        641            847          583         2,812        2,906
    East             1,912         2,059       1,654      10,126        8,288
    West            1,165         1,091          942         6,274        6,623
    Midwest       1,263        1,516        1,677        7,340        6,911


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    Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection:
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    Total red meat production under Federal inspection for the week ending Saturday, June 17, 2017 was estimated at 958.3 million lbs. according to the U.S.Department of Agriculture's Marketing Service. This was 0.4 percent higher than a week ago and 0.8 percent higher than a year ago.  Cumulative meat production for the year to date was 3 percent higher compared to the previous year.
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    Utah Rancher Files Lawsuit Against Beef Checkoff
    Tri-State Livestock News
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    A Utah rancher has filed suit against the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Utah Ag Commissioner and the state of Utah over the one dollar federal and fifty cent Utah state beef checkoff.

    According to the class action complaint, filed May 5 in the third judicial district court in and for Salt Lake City.

    State beef commissions or councils exist in nearly every state in the U.S., to collect the one dollar federal beef checkoff every time a beef animal is sold. Each state submits fifty cents of each dollar to the Cattlemen's Beef Board (CBB), and retains the other fifty cents for use as they choose. Often times, an additional portion of the remaining fifty cents is also sent to the Federation of State Beef Councils – a division of the National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA). The NCBA is also the largest contractor with the CBB.

    In the complaint, the plantiffs said they do not take objection to the fifty cents that is submitted to the CBB, their concern is with the remaining fifty cents, and the additional state checkoff – another fifty cents – that is managed by the Utah Beef Council.

    Because the CBB is under federal oversight and their activities have already been deemed "government speech" by the Supreme Court, Evergreen Ranch doesn't take issue with the fifty cents of the federal checkoff that is forwarded there.

    The plaintiff said that the Utah Beef Council is a "private entity" and they believe that, for Utah's producers to be compelled to finance the "private speech" of this "private entity" is unconstituational.

    "In compelling plaintiffs to associate with, support, and subsidize the private speech of the Utah Beef Council, the defendants are violating plaintiffs' rights under the First Amendment to the United States Constitution and Article I § 1 of the Utah Constitution," says the complaint.

    Brent Tanner, who has served as executive director of the Utah Beef Council for 25 years, said that because his group isn't named as a party in the lawsuit, he doesn't feel comfortable commenting on the specifics of the lawsuit until the defendants have done so.

    "As beef industry leaders in Utah we feel that we are promoting our product to the benefit of all of our producers. We work hard to be sure that oversight requirements are being followed by the council," he said.

    Evergreen Ranch seeks damages in the amount of the last four years worth of checkoff funds it has paid and reimbursement of court costs. They are also hoping to see a declaration that the state beef council's use of mandatory checkoff funds is unconstitutional,

    Attorney Robert Fuller said the plaintiff filed the suit as a class action because there are many others in the state of Utah who have also paid the checkoff involuntarily, and if he and his client win the suit, it will then apply to every other Utah individual who has paid the state and federal checkoff over the last four years, who objects to paying or who did not consent to paying it.

    Fuller, himself a sixth generation rancher, said Evergreen has two main complaints.

    • The Utah Beef Council is a private entity, not under the jurisdiction of the government, and Evergreen ranch is being forced to support the private entity.
    • The checkoff violates Evergreen Ranch's constitutional freedom of speech.
    Fuller grants that the fifty cent state checkoff is refundable within 60 days, but he said his client believes that the process is complicated and that the beef council does not provide sufficient information about the refund process.

    The Utah Beef Council refused to show him a copy of the annual budget when he asked, said Fuller.

    Fuller pointed out that some dairy producers are selling baby calves right now that are hardly worth the fuel it takes to drive them to town. "$1.50 is a pretty big percentage of the value of that calf," he said. He added that profit margins for all cattle producers in his state are slim, and that every dollar makes a difference to their bottom line.

    In May of 2016, national cattle organization R-CALF USA, based in Billings, Mont., filed a similar lawsuit alleging that it is unconstitutional for the government to allow private beef councils, like the Montana State Beef Council, to keep and spend one-half of all checkoff dollars to pay for the beef council's private speech. Specifically, the group alleged it was unconstitutional for the government to compel its members to fund the private speech of state beef councils.

    On Dec. 12, the U.S. magistrate judge issued his findings and recommendations in the R-CALF case. The magistrate judge recommended that the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana grant their request for a preliminary injunction. The preliminary injunction would stop the government from continuing to allow the Montana State Beef Council to use checkoff dollars to fund its advertising campaigns unless a cattle producer provides prior affirmative consent that his/her checkoff dollars may be retained by the council for that purpose. R-CALF USA continues to wait for the ruling from the district court.

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    Weekly Hay Reports: "Click" on links for detailed report
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    Weekly Feedstuffs Market Review:
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    The USDA Market News Service reports feed ingredient prices for the week ending June 13, 2017 were mixed. 
    • Soybean Meal was mixed, 3.60 lower to 8.00 higher, mostly 40 cents to 5.40 higher. Cottonseed Meal was steady to 5.00 higher, mostly steady.  Canola Meal was steady to 25.40 higher, mostly steady to 5.40 higher. Linseed Meal was steady to 10.00 lower. Sunflower Meal was mixed, 10.00 lower to 5.00 higher. 
    • Whole Cottonseed was steady to 7.00 higher.
    • Crude Soybean Oil was 70 points to 1.45 higher. Crude Corn Oil was 10 points to 1.10 higher. 
    • Ruminant Meat and Bone Meal was mixed, 5.00 lower to 20.00 higher, mostly steady to 10.00 higher. Ruminant Blood Meal was steady to 25.00 lower. Feather Meal was steady. Menhaden Fishmeal was steady. 
    • Corn Hominy was steady to 5.00 higher. Corn Gluten Feed was mixed, 10.00 lower to 5.00 higher. Corn Gluten Meal was steady to 7.00 lower. 
    • Distillers Dried Grain was mixed, 10.00 lower to 10.00 higher, mostly steady to 5.00 higher. 
    • Wheat Middling’s were mixed, 10.00 lower to 12.00 higher. Wheat millrun was steady to 2.00 lower.
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    5 Year Bullish/Bearish Consensus Charts:
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    The theory behind the "Bullish/Bearish Consensus" indicator is when the public reaches a consensus, they are usually wrong:
    • They get too bullish after prices have risen and too bearish after they have already fallen.
    Because of this tendency, there are often extremes in opinion right before major changes in trend:
    • When the public reaches a bullish extreme, i.e., a great majority thinks prices will keep rising, then prices often decline instead. 
    • And when they become too bearish, then prices tend to rise.
    So when Public Opinion moves above the red dotted linein the chart, it means that compared to other readings over the past year, you're seeing excessive optimism. You also want to look at the absolute level of Opinion, too - if it's at 90%, then there's no question we're seeing an historic level of bullish opinion.  Watch for readings above 80% (or especially 90%) to spot those dangerous times when the public is overly enthusiastic about a commodity.

    Conversely, when Public Opinion moves below the green dotted line, then the public is excessively pessimistic about the commodity's prospects for further gains compared to their opinion over the past year.  Looking for absolute readings under 20% (or especially 10%) often indicates an upturn in the market.

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    Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Cattle
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    Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Corn
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    Stock Markets & Economic News:
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    NASDAQ Under-Performs for the Second Week
    The major indexes ended mixed for the week. Smaller shares underperformed, but the S&P MidCap 400 Index reached a new high early in the week before falling back. The Nasdaq Composite Index fared poorly for the second consecutive week as the market continued to feel the ripple effects of the sell-off in mega-cap technology shares the previous Friday.

    FAANG Stocks Remain Volatile
    The week began on an active note, as the sell-off in tech-related stocks continued into Monday morning. Buyers returned in the afternoon, however, helping the FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Alphabet’s Google) stocks recover some of their losses. FAANG shares, which together represent well over $2 trillion in market capitalization, continued to recover through Wednesday before selling off again on Thursday -- a move attributed to investors trying to lock in profits. Much of the money rotated into defensive segments, they noted. Amazon enjoyed another bounce Friday, following the surprise announcement that it was acquiring Whole Foods Market for over $13 billion, while the news sent the shares of other food retailers sharply lower.

    Although the FAANG sell-off captured attention, the firm’s traders noted that the market had generally entered summer mode, with earnings season a month away and equity investors on vacation or otherwise less engaged. Bond investors had more to pay attention to in the form of important economic reports and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to a new postelection low on Wednesday as inflation came in weaker than expected for the third month in a row. Retail sales also surprised to the downside.

    Fed Raises Rates as Expected
    While other economic data have also raised warnings signals in recent weeks, the Fed raised rates as expected and maintained its projection for another rate hike in 2017. Fed officials also outlined their plans to begin unwinding the central bank's $4.5 trillion balance sheet, a legacy of its massive purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Some investors may have interpreted the Fed’s unwillingness to delay a rate increase due to falling inflation as hawkish, and Treasury yields partially retraced some of their Wednesday decline when trading resumed Thursday.

    Treasury prices rose alongside the decline in yields, but the municipal market was essentially flat for the week. Investor activity was light given generally rich muni valuations. Investment-grade corporate bond new issuance faded as the week progressed, which contributed to positive performance, along with low dealer inventories. Investors in Asia continued to be active buyers, helping to support demand for longer-duration credits.

    Broad risk-on sentiment was supportive for the high yield market. However, volumes were subdued ahead of the Fed's announcement. The move lower in oil led to weakness among riskier energy credits. The market traded modestly higher following the central bank's rate decision, and exchange-traded funds reported positive flows for the week. 

    Construction on new houses fell in May for the third month in a row even though builders are optimistic about the economy, perhaps a sign a shortage of skilled workers is holding the industry back. The pace of so-called housing starts declined by 5.5% to an annual rate of 1.09 million, marking the lowest level in eight months

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    U.S. Stocks:
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    "Click Here" to view a Slide Show of Drought Monitor maps for the last 12 weeks
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    Looking Ahead:
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    During the next five days (June 15-19), WPC’s 5-day QPF forecasts widespread rainfall across most of the Midwest, Southeast, central Appalachians, and Great Lakes region, with the greatest totals (2-3 inches) from northern Missouri eastward into western Pennsylvania and southward into the Carolinas. Rain should also fall on coastal Washington and the northern Rockies. Dry weather should encompass the rest of the West, High Plains, Texas, and western Gulf Coast. Temperatures should average above-normal across the southern two-thirds of the U.S., with subnormal readings limited to the northern sections of the Rockies and Plains and upper Midwest.

    For the ensuing five-day period (June 20-24), odds favor sub-median precipitation in the Northwest, Rockies, northern three-quarters of the Plains, and western Corn Belt, while above-median rainfall is likely along the Atlantic and eastern Gulf Coast States, Great Lakes region, and the eastern half of Alaska. Above-normal temperatures are likely in the western half of the U.S., Florida, and the northern and southwestern coasts of Alaska, with subnormal readings in the Great Lakes region, Midwest, and southeastern Alaska.

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    Cattle Feeding Returns Surge
    Livestock Marketing Information Center
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    The LMIC has been estimating monthly cattle feeding returns for commercial Southern Plains feeding since the mid 1970’s. There can be lots of debate/discussion of the calculation assumptions made in estimating returns (LMIC’s are not based on surveys of producers).  LMIC’s were developed to facilitate market analysis and the assumptions are rather fixed, for example the animal being fed-out is always a 750-pound steer. Monthly average cash market steer prices reported by USDA-AMS (Agricultural Marketing Service, Market News Division) are used. Results provide a barometer (e.g. year-over-year direction of change) of returns above all economic production costs.

    Estimated returns surged for cattle sold during the first five months of 2017. After posting record large losses in 2015 and continuing to gushing red ink during most of 2016, January through May of this year were the best consecutive five months ever. The prior five month record high was set in late 2003. Profitability has been due to modest feedstuff costs, large year-over-year drops in feeder cattle prices, and strong fed cattle prices.

    On a monthly basis, fed cattle sold in May had the second highest profit level ever in the LMIC calculations, barely behind October 2003’s. May’s return was over $270.00 per steer above a year ago. For the month of May, in percentage terms compared to a year ago, closeouts margins were increased by a 6% drop in feedstuff cost, 15% decline in feeder steer cost, and a 6% increase in slaughter steer sales price per cwt.

    Cattle feeding profitability has allowed producers to aggressively buy feeder animals. The result has been higher feeder cattle prices and more steers and heifers placed on-feed than a year ago. Stronger feeder steer prices have raised breakeven sale prices for cattle feeders. Steers put on-feed in May had breakeven sale prices at well over $120.00 per cwt., the highest in 10 months. Monthly Cattle on Feed reports from USDA-NASS show the number of cattle placed into feedlots during the first four months of 2017 was the largest for that timeframe since 2000.

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    Feedyard Closeouts: Profit/(Loss)
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    Slaughter Cattle:
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    Friday negotiated cash trade and demand is light in Nebraska with a few dressed purchases mostly 10.00-15.00 lower compared to Tuesday at 200.00. The bulk of live purchases in Nebraska for the week were on Monday at 132.00. Trade on Thursday was mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains, Colorado and the Western Cornbelt. The latest established market in the Texas Panhandle was last week with live purchase at 137.00 on a light test. In Kansas on Wednesday live purchases traded from 128.00-130.00. In Colorado on Wednesday live purchases traded at 131.00. In the Western Cornbelt on Tuesday early live purchases were reported at 135.00, with early dressed purchases from 208.00-215.00.

    Negotiated Sales: Confirmed: 9,456      Week Ago: 14,838      Year Ago: 4,645

    Formula Purchases: Net - Dressed
    Head count priced today: 18,700
    Weighted avg weight:            843
    Weighted avg net price:   219.40

    Livestock Slaughter under Federal Inspection: 
                                     CATTLE    CALVES   HOGS        SHEEP
    Friday  (est)              118,000      2,000         417,000        7,000
    Week ago (est)        117,000      2,000         412,000        6,000
    Year ago (act)          112,000      2,000         420,000        7,000
    Week to date (est)   585,000      9,000     2,127,000      35,000
    Last Week (est)       583,000      9,000      2,166,000      35,000
    Last Year (act)         555,000      9,000      2,125,000      37,000

    Saturday  (est)           43,000         0                 52,000       1,000
    Week ago (est)         39,000         0                  26,000         0
    Year ago (act)           51,000         0                  27,000         0
    Week to date (est) 628,000        9,000      2,179,000     36,000
    Last Week (est)      622,000       9,000      2,192,000     35,000
    Last Year* (act)       606,000       8,000      2,152,000     37,000
    2017 YTD           14,294,000   228,000   54,607,000   882,000
    2016 *YTD          13,523,000   203,000   53,162,000   932,000
    Percent change        5.7%         12.4%           2.7%         -5.3%

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    Weekly Corn Crop Condition Report:
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    National Grain Summary:
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    Compared to last week, grain bids were mixed with wheat mostly higher and corn and soybeans lower. New-crop corn could close higher Friday if the midday weather models show a decreased chance of rain over the weekend, however, if there is an increased chance of rain over the weekend then new-crop corn could close lower.  New-crop November soybeans continues to be in an uptrend on its daily chart, which is ticking just above its previous high from June 8 overnight.  New-crop November soybeans are also nearing a short-term overbought situation that could limit new buying interest.  After Thursday’s early sell-off, commercial buying has come storming back to the Minneapolis spring wheat market.  If the weather forecasts are clear for the U.S. Southern Plains, Kansas City wheat could see some pre-weekend pressure develop late on Friday.  Weekly export sales for all wheat were viewed as neutral and showed a total of 13.7 mb (373,400 mt), all for the 2017-2018 marketing year.  Weekly export sales of corn were neutral with a total of 24.2 mb (614,200 mt) with 23.6 mb (600,700 mt) sold for the 2016-2017 marketing year.  Weekly export sales of soybeans were bullish with a total of 24 mb (654,200 mt) with 12.5 mb (340,200 mt) for the 2016-2017 marketing year.  Weekly export sales of grain sorghum (milo) were bearish with a total of 2.4 mb (60,600 mt) for the 2016-2017 marketing year.  Wheat were mostly 1 cents to 57 cents higher.  Corn were 3 to 13 cents lower.  Sorghum were mixed 38 cents lower to 21 cents higher.  Soybeans were 1 to 11 cents lower.

    Corn futures closed Friday with gains of 3 to 4 1/2 cents, as July lost 3 3/4 cents on the week. This morning, the USDA announced a private export sale of 120,000 MT to Mexico, through their daily reporting system. The Commitment of Traders report tonight showed spec funds lopping 120,829 contracts off their net short position in corn options and futures trading. As of Tuesday they had a net short position of -17,929 contracts. On Friday, China sold 1.254 MMT of corn from state reserves, most of which was from 2013, with 58.5% of the total 2.144 MMT offered sold. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that 45% of the Argentine corn crop had been harvested as of Thursday. AgRural projects that 4.5% of the safrinha corn crop in Brazil is harvested, while leaving their estimate for production of the second crop at 67.1 MMT.

    Wheat futures finished the week with daily gains of mostly 7 1/2 to 12 1/2 cents on Friday. All exchanges saw positive gains on the week, with MPLS up 5.98%.  KC and CBT were up 4.87% and 4.37% in their respective July contracts. Spec traders added 21,494 contracts to their net long position in KC wheat futures and options last week. In CBT futures and options, they reduced their net short position by 23,277 contracts. Thinly traded MPLS futures and options have 0 shorts in managed money for the second week in a row, as their net long position is 11,780 contracts. Winter wheat yields are all over the place. Some are “higher than expected” according to one southeast Kansas farmer, with producers in western KS claiming to have lost acres to Wheat Streak Mosaic. Keep in mind that expectations are muted due to known frost and snow damage. Ex ports for the 17/18 marketing year are expected to drop 3.3% yr/yr to 50.4 MMT for combined Russian, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan exports.

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    Five Year Moving Average - Corn & Wheat:
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