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Weekly Market Summary
For the week ending August 11th, 2017
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The Cattle Range Market Trendlines:
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Not a good week for cattle & beef with all indicators lower.  Market optimism is eroding with the increasing concern that strong domestic demand & increased exports won't be sufficient to offset the peak supplies of beef available in the next 4 to 6 weeks.  If feedyards remain current and demand doesn't falter, improvement in the 4th quarter is a possibility.
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10 Day Market Trendline
Change from Previous Day: -0.10%
  Change from 10 Days Ago: -4.31%
 Change from 60 Days Ago: -22.02%
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60 Day Market Trendline
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The Trendlines are indicators of overall cattle/beef market strength and are based on daily market factors.  Each daily factor is the aggregate weighted total of the Gain/(Loss) for 12 market indicators compared to the previous trading day. The angle indicates direction & velocity of the trend.
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  • For daily market news, check TCR's Cattle Industry News
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    Regular Contents: 
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  • Weekly Market Overview.
  • National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary.
  • Stocker & Feeder Steers.
  • Stocker & Feeder Cattle Weekly Receipts.
  • 5 Year Moving Avg. - Stocker, Feeder, & Slaughter Steers.
  • Mexican Feeder Cattle Weekly Import Summary.
  • Selected Auction Reports.
  • Direct Sales of Feeder & Stocker Cattle.
  • Representative Sales of Cow & Pairs.
  • Canadian Cattle.
  • USDA National Retail Beef Report.
  • Photo of the Week.
  • Shootin' the Bull Weekly Analysis.
  • U.S. Dollar - 6 Month Chart.
  • Choice Boxed Beef Cutout, Slaughter, & Feeder Steers.
  • Feeder Steers/Corn Correlation.
  • Slaughter Cows & Bulls.
  • Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection.
  • Weekly Hay Reports.
  • Weekly Feedstuffs Market Review.
  • Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Cattle & Corn.
  • Stock Markets & Economic News.
  • Weather Outlook.
  • Feedyard Closeouts: Profit/(Loss).
  • Slaughter Cattle.
  • Corn Crop Condition.
  • National Grain Summary.
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    Of Possible Interest:  The views expressed in the content below are included in the WMS because we found them to be of interest but do not necessarily reflect the views of The Cattle Range.
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    Weekly Market Overview:
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    On-Line Store
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    National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary:
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    RECEIPTS: Auctions   Direct  Video/Internet     Total
    This Week     160,200     28,800       215,200         404,200
    Last Week     150,900     37,300       189,300         377,500
    Last Year       162,800     93,500       209,800         466,100

    Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers opened the week steady to 4.00 higher. However, feeders took a downturn later in the week trading 3.00-10.00 lower. Southeast feeder markets were mixed, trading 8.00 lower to 6.00 higher. Early-week demand was moderate to good on active trading, with moderate at best on later week sales. There was optimism going into the week, in spite of August having a bad reputation for being tough on the markets. Producers felt confident, cashing in on last week’s gains and order buyers ignoring the negative signals in the market place. These signals could not be ignored any longer on Wednesday as the CME feeder cattle futures closed down the limit on contracts through January and live cattle futures posted triple digit losses. Buyers were forced to pay for cattle at discounts to breakeven or make a profit. Live cattle futures for August closed the week below support levels at 109.72 and feeder cattle at 141.77 on the August contract. 

    Despite the lower market, low feed costs and the surplus of corn in farmer feeder country continues to spur demand for steers. Prices in the Northern Plains and upper Midwest continue to be the highest in the nation. Cattle producers in that area are taking advantage of the market before demand decreases as farmers will soon be busy with corn and soybean harvest. USDA's August supply and demand report was released Thursday, projecting a higher than expected corn yield of 169.5 bushels per acre, which is still at a comfortable level to satisfy demand for cattle feeders. Corn production is estimated at 14.153 billion bushels, and corn ending stocks were estimated at 2.273 billion bushels. If these projections hold true, this year’s crop will be the third highest on record for yield and production. 

    Feedlot trade occurred on Tuesday in Kansas with live sales trading 1.00-2.00 lower than last week mostly at 115.00 and in Nebraska dressed sales sold 2.00-3.00 lower at 185.00. More cleanup trade ensued on Wednesday trading steady to Tuesday with live sales in Kansas at 115.00 and dressed sales in Nebraska at 185.00. The Texas Panhandle started negotiating slaughter cattle on Wednesday with live trades 2.50-3.00 lower at 115.00 and Nebraska 2.00 lower at 116.00 as compared to the previous week. The last time cash fed prices and spot live cattle futures were this low was in December 2016. The cooler temperatures throughout the past two weeks has helped relieve cattle from heat stress and allowed them to perform well in the feed yards. Livestock have seen quick gains from the previous month. Choice boxed-beef closed Friday 4.01 lower at 199.60 with Select 1.19 lower at 196.12 when compared to last Friday’s close. Auction volume this week included 55 percent weighing over 600 lbs and 38 percent heifers.

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    Stocker Steers:
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    Feeder Steers:
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    Stocker & Feeder Cattle Weekly Receipts:
    Weekly sales of Stocker Calves & Feeder Cattle sold via auctions, direct country sales, and video/Internet sales as reported by the UDSA Market News
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    Five Year Moving Average - Stocker, Feeder, & Slaughter Steers:
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    Cattle Futures Summary: Live cattle futures settled Friday with most contracts 62.5 cents to $1. Feeder cattle futures were 52.5 cents to $1.375. The CME feeder cattle index was $1.97 lower than the previous day at $145.96. Wholesale beef prices were lower in the Friday afternoon report, with choice down $1.03 at $199.60 and select boxes 7 cents lower at $196.12. The CH/SE spreads has now narrowed to $3.48. This is the first time Choice has been reported below $200 since February 24. Weekly FI cattle slaughter is estimated at 641,000 head through Saturday, 7,000 more than last week and 62,000 larger than the same week last year. Cash trade was mostly $115-116 this week. As of Tuesday, managed money continued to show a slow liquidation of their net long position, as it fell 7,758 contracts to a net position of +94,768 contracts in live cattle futures and options. 
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    Mexican Feeder Cattle Weekly Import Summary
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    Receipts EST: 9,000    Week ago Act: 7,872   Year ago Act: 6,268

    Compared to last week steer calves and yearlings 5.00-8.00 lower. Heifers 5.00 lower.  Trade moderate to active, demand moderate to good.  Supply consisted of steers and spayed heifers weighing 300-600 lbs. 

    Feeder steers: Medium and large 1&2, 300-400 lbs 170.00-190.00; 400-500 lbs 150.00-170.00; 500-600 lbs 130.00-150.00; Medium and large 2&3, 300-400 lbs 155.00-175.00; 400-500 lbs 135.00-155.00; 500-600 lbs 115.00-135.00.

    Feeder heifers: Medium and large 1&2, 300-400 lbs 145.00-155.00; 400-500 lbs 135.00-145.00; 500-600 lbs 125.00-135.00. 

    ****slide 20 cents on steers and 10 cents on heifers based at 300 lbs.****

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    Selected Auction Reports:
    "Click" on individual.auction links.for complete report
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    Green Forest Livestock Auction - Green Forest AR
    Receipts:  984    Last Week:  756    Year Ago:  984
    Compared to one week earlier, slaughter cows mostly steady, slaughter bulls steady to 2.00 higher, feeder steers mostly steady, steer calves 1.00 to 4.00 lower, feeder bulls and heifers steady to 3.00 lower, heifer calves 2.00 to 5.00 lower,

    El Reno Cattle Narrative - El Reno OK
                                  Receipts         Week Ago       Year Ago
    Total Receipts:       6,887               5,835                  0
    Feeder Cattle:   6,887(100%)   5,835(100%)      0(0%)
    ***Final Report*** Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers traded 3.00 to mostly 6.00 lower.  Steer and heifer calves traded firm to 4.00 higher where comparable sales were noted.

    Tulia Livestock Auction - Tulia TX
    Receipts:  1437    Last Week:  1278    Year Ago:  1520
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers sold 5.00 to 7.00 lower.  Trade activity and demand was moderate.  Thunderstorms across the area has benefitted local pastures but left for muddy conditions for getting cattle to auction.

    Cullman Stockyard - Cullman AL
    Receipts:  1201    Last Week:  900    Year Ago:  1167
    Compared to last week: Slaughter cows sold 1.00 to 2.00 lower, slaughter bulls sold steady. Feeder bulls and steers sold 3.00 to 4.00 lower. Feeder heifers sold 4.00 to 6.00 lower. Replacement cows and pairs sold mostly steady.

    Pratt Livestock Feeder Cattle Auction - Pratt, KS
    Receipts:  4042    Last Week:  2653     Year Ago:  4736
    Compared to last week: Feeder steers 800-1000 lbs 5.00-10.00 lower; Feeder heifers 700-850 lbs 4.00-8.00 lower, 850-1000 lbs 3.00-5.00 lower on a light test of Medium and Large 1. Steer and heifer calves steady to lower undertone noted on a light supply.

    Oklahoma National Stockyards - Oklahoma City OK
                                    Receipts        Week Ago        Year Ago
    Total Receipts:        5,059               2,782              5,789
    Feeder Cattle:   5,059(100%)  2,782(100%)    5,789(100%)
    ***Close*** Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers steady to 2.00 higher, 600-700 lb steers up to 4.00 higher.  Steer calves steady to 4.00 higher.  Heifer calves mostly steady.

    Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg - Carthage MO
                                  Receipts           Week Ago        Year Ago
    Total Receipts:       4,167                3,523                3,842
    Feeder Cattle:   4,167(100%)   3,523(100%)     3,842(100%)
    ***CLOSE****   Compared to last week, steers and heifers under 700 lbs steady to 4.00 higher, over 700 lbs steady.  Demand moderate to good, supply moderate. Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures closed sharply lower, but Buyers remain active through the sale.

    Blue Grass South Livestock Market - Stanford KY
    Receipts:  783    Last Week:  521    Year Ago:  756
    Compared to last Monday:Feeder steers under 600 lbs 2.00-3.00 lower,over 600 lbs steady,Feeder heifers steady,Moderate demand for fleshy unweaned calves,Good demand for weaned or yearling feeders. Slaughter cows 2.00-3.00 higher,

    Clovis Livestock Auction - Clovis NM
    Receipts:  1579            Week Ago: 1387           Year Ago: 1657
    Compared to a week ago:  Feeder steers mostly 2.00-4.00 lower.  Heifers 2.00 to instances 6.00 lower on 600-700 lbs.  Slaughter cows steady to 1.00 higher, bulls steady.

    Cattleman's Livestock Auction - Dalhart, TX
    Cattle and Calves: 1116      Week ago: 1215      Year Ago:  1323
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers steady in a very light test.  Several planned consignments were cancelled due to significant rainfall over the trade area for the past week with some areas receiving as much as six to seven inches.

    Sioux Falls Regional Livestock wtd Avg Report - Worthing SD
    Receipts:  1809    Last Week:  475    Year Ago:  1116
    Compared to two weeks ago:  Feeder steers 650-700 lbs 3.00 to 4.00 higher in a narrow comparison, 800-850 lbs 8.00 higher in a very light test, 1000-1050 lbs unevenly steady; all other weights not well compared.

    Farmers & Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. - Salina KS
    Receipts:  3359    Last Week:  3978    Year Ago:  4418
    Compared with last week: Steers 550-1000 lbs 7.00-10.00 lower; few 1000-1050 lbs 4.00 lower. Heifers 600-900 lbs 5.00-9.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves steady in a limited supply.

    Tri-State Livestock Auction Market - McCook NE
    Receipts:  950    Last Week:  1000    Year Ago:  0
    Not enough to show a comparison to last week. Demand was good On all feeders offered. Steers accounted for 54 percent and heifers 46 percent of the offering today. Weights over 600 lbs 84 percent Of the offering.

    Mitchell Livestock Wtd Avg Report - Mitchell SD
    Receipts:  1004    Last Week:  5014    Year Ago:  5201
    Compared to last week:  Very light offering of feeder cattle today.  Feeder steers and heifers sold with weaker undertones compared to last week's much larger offering.

    Huss Platte Valley Auction - Kearney NE
    Receipts:  2150    Two Weeks Ago:  2502    Year Ago:  1992
    Compared to two weeks ago, steers between 750 and 950 lbs sold 3.00 to 4.00 lower. Not enough heifers for an adequate market trend. Demand was good despite sharply lower CME cattle boards in early week trading.

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    Direct Sales of Feeder & Stocker Cattle:
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    WY, Western NE & Western Dakotas Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
    Receipts: 3,050    Week Ago: 795       Year Ago: 13,207
    No comparable sales this week for a market comparison. Demand was moderate for direct feeder cattle. Most prospective buyers were glued to their TV, computer screen or attended the Western Video sale on Monday and Tuesday to purchase top quality calves and feeder cattle.

    AZ-CA-NV Weekly Feeder Cattle Review (Fri)
    Confirmed: 275 
    Compared to last week, not enough compareble sales to compare to.  Trade slow, demand light.  Bulk of supply consisted of medium and large 1&2 steers weighing 875 for current delivery.  Cattle weighing over 600 lbs totaled 100 percent.

    IA-South MN Direct Feeder Cattle Weekly (Mon)
    Receipts:  0    Last Week:  259     Last Year: 0
    Compared to the last week:  Feeder steers and heifers not established due to last week's limited test.  Prices based on net weights FOB after a 3 percent shrink or equivalent and 5-10 cent slide on calves and 4-6 cent slide on yearlings from base weights.

    Colorado Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
    Receipts: 4,435        Last Week 1,343        Last Year 17,281 
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers not tested on a Current FOB basis.  Demand moderate.  Supply consisted of 100 percent over 600 lbs; 50 percent heifers.

    Kansas Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
    Receipts:  1969    Last Week:  2620    Year Ago:  8052
    Compared with last week: Feeder steers firm to 2.00 higher, mostly traded over last weekend. No heifers sales confirmed. This weeks feeder cattle auction had a 
    major decline.

    Montana Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
    Receipts: 400          Last Week 260          Last Year 3,415 
    Compared to last week:  No trend available for feeder steers and heifers due to lack of Current FOB trades.  Supply included 100 percent over 600 lbs; 23 percent heifers.

    New Mexico Feeder Cattle Report (Mon)
    Receipts:  740    Last Week:  860    Year Ago:  1800
    Compared to last week:  No Current FOB sales this week reported for a market trend.  Trade was slow on light demand as the CME cattle futures took some hard hits.  Supply consisted of 100 percent heifers and 100 percent weighed over 600 lbs.

    Northwest Wtd Avg Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
    Receipts:  1,050    Last Week:  3,050    Year Ago:  5,950
    Compared to last week:  Not enough comparable trades for a market test, but a lower undertone is noted.  Feedlots remain cautious as cattle futures sold off sharply this week.  The feeder supply included 62 percent steers and 38 percent heifers.

    Oklahoma Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
    Receipts: 2,296        Last Week 1,819        Last Year 5,152 
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers lightly tested last week on a Current FOB basis so no trend was available.  Weather has turned much cooler than recent weeks.

    Texas Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
    Receipts:  14,000    Last Week:  16,500    Year Ago:  38,300
    Compared to last week:  Current FOB feeder cattle sales traded mostly 1.00 to 2.00 lower on limited comparable sales.  Trade activity was slow to moderate on moderate demand following the CME future board declining throughout the week. 
     

  • Extensive U.S. & Canadian Auction Results are available on The Cattle Range
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    Representative Sales of Cows & Pairs:
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    Reported by.USDA Market News for the week ending August 11th
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    • McAlester, OK:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  1-6 yr old 1000-1350 lbs 6-8 months bred 1085.00-1350.00; 1-4 yr old 900-1050 lbs 4-6 months bred 870.00-1075.00; 5-6 yr old 4-6 months bred 1075-1300 lbs 985.00-1285.00; 9-10 yrs 1000-1375 lbs 4-8 months bred 900.00-1100.00 per head. 
      • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2 pkg 1-4 yr old 1200 lb cow/w 85 lb calf 1160.00; 7-10 yr old 1050-1125 lb cow w/100-225 lb calf 950.00-1100.00 per pair. 
    • El Reno, OK:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  1-4 yr old 800-1275 lbs 2-8 months bred 800.00-1250.00; 2-4 yr old 950-1150 lbs 5-6 months bred 1200.00-1275.00; 6-10 yr old 1225-1375 lbs 5-7 months bred 950.00-1185.00 per head. 
      • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  1-5 yr old 800-1000 lb cow w/125-275 lb calf 1025.00-1375.00 per pair. 
    • Oklahoma City, OK:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-6 yr old 1000-1375 lbs 2-7 months bred 850.00-1125.00; 5-6 yr old 1100-1400 lbs 4-7 months bred 1175.00-1285.00; 8-10 yr old 950-1200 lbs 4-5 months bred 885.00 per head. 
    • Woodard, OK:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-6 yr old 1000-1375 lbs 2-7 months bred 850.00-1125.00; 5-6 yr old 1100-1400 lbs 4-7 months bred 1175.00-1285.00; 8-10 yr old 950-1200 lbs 4-5 months bred 885.00 per head. 
    • Clovis, NM:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 850-1170 lb cows 1-8 months bred 810.00-1060.00, per head; aged 1145-1325 lb cows 6-8 months bred 900.00-990.00, per head.  First Calf Heifers: Indiv 930 lb cow 3-6 months bred 800.00, per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 900-1150 lb cow w/125-300 lb calves 1125.00-1700.00, per pair; middle aged short solid mouth 1150-1175 lb cows w/150-250 lb calves 1225.00-1350.00, per pair.
    • Roswell, NM:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 735-1115 lb cows 3-6 months bred 800.00-1010.00, per head; middle aged 810-1100 lb cows 3-6 months bred 875.00-1050.00, per head.  First Calf Heifers: 855-995 lb cows 3-6 months bred 935.00-1000.00, per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 815-1430 lb cow w/150-300 lb calves 1025.00-1410.00, per pair; middle aged 850-1145 lb cows w/275-300 lb calves 1000.00-1085.00, per pair; aged 850-975 lb cow w/150-200 lb calves 825.00-950.00, per pair.
    • Joplin, MO:
      • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 900-1365 lbs 1100.00-1450.00, 1st stage 940-1340 lbs 1050.00-1300.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1150-1365 lbs 835.00-1085.00. Large 1-2  4-6 yrs 3rd stage 1475-1810 lbs 1125.00-1350.00; 7 yrs to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1435-1585 lbs 975.00-1250.00. Medium and Large 2  4-7 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 1000-1175 lbs 775.00-850.00, 1st stage 1075 lb indiv. 900.00. Medium 1-2  4-7 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 875-1050 lbs 875.00-1050.00, 1st stage 850-1000 lbs 715.00-875.00; short and solid mouth 3rd stage 880 lb indiv. 685.00 per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-7 yrs 1000-1360 lb cows w/babies to 350 lb calves and a few rebred 1325.00-1560.00. Medium 1-2  3-7 yrs 990-1040 lb cow w/babies to 340 lb calves and a few rebred 1100.00-1275.00per pair.
    • Springfield, MO:
      • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-7 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 1175-1330 lbs 1100.00-1335.00, 1st stage 2 yr 935 lb indiv. 1110.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1095-1345 lbs 815.00-975.00. Large 1-2  3 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 1455-1765 lbs 1225.00-1370.00; short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 1450-1565 lbs 1095.00-1175.00. Medium and Large 2  3-7 yrs 2nd stage 1145-1155 lbs 750.00-950.00, 1st stage 900 lb indiv. 925.00. Medium 1-2  3-7 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 980-1048 lbs 875.00-1075.00, 1st stage 795-995 lbs 975.00-1010.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1035-1075 lbs 700.00-800.00, 1st stage 900-1015 lbs 650.00-735.00 per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  2 yrs pkg. 960 lb cows w/185-250 lb calves 1400.00; 5 yrs to short and solid mouth couple pkgs. 1100-1110 lb cows w/babies to 300 lb calves 1175.00-1250.00; broken mouth 1200 lb cow w/newborn calf 900.00. Medium 1-2  2 yrs to short and solid mouth 780-960 lb cows 140-300 lb calves and a few rebred 1060.00-1185.00; broken mouth 900 lb cow w/baby calf 700.00 per pair.
    • West Plains, MO:
      • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-6 yr old 920-1550 lb cows in the 2nd to 3rd stage 1250.00-1700.00 per head, 1st stage 1125.00-1250.00; few 7 yr to short-solid mouth 1258-1419 lb cows in the 3rd stage 1075.00-1100.00 per head.  Medium and Large 2  2-7 yr old 890-1230 lb cows in the 2nd to 3rd stage 950.00-1150.00 per head, 1st stage 800.00-950.00; Short-solid mouth 715-928 lb cows in the 1st to 2nd stage 825.00-975.00 per head. 
      • Cow-Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-6 yr old 1065-1211 lb cows with 125-200 lb calves 1400.00-1750.00 per pair; Short-solid to broken mouth 1085-1242 lb cows with 125-300 lb calves 1125.00-1375.00 per pair.  3-n-1 pkgs 3-6 yr old 1348-1448 lb cows in the 1st or 2nd stage with 150-300 lb calves 1600.00-1850.00 per pair; 7 yr to short-solid mouth 1055-1215 lb cows in the 1st stage with 150-300 lb calves 1050.00-1250.00 per pair.  Medium and Large 2  2-7 yr old 650-1135 lb cows with 100-300 lb calves 1100.00-1275.00 per pair.
    • Arkansas:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-7 year old 850-1250 lbs second & third stage 92.00-102.00/1050.00-1150.00, first stage open 88.00-98.00, 7-10 year old second & third stage 71.00-81.00/900.00-1000.00 per head. 
      • Cow-Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-7 yr old 800-1200 lb cow w/100-200 lb calf 1250.00-1350.00, few to 1650.00, w/200-300 lb calf 1325.00-1425.00, w/100-200 lb calf 1125.00-1225.00 per pair.  Small 1 and Medium 2  7+ yr old 750-900 lb cow w/100-200 lb calf 975.00-1075.00 per pair.
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    Canadian Cattle:
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    Alberta Beef Producers: Alberta direct cattle sales so far this week have seen light trade develop with bids easing from Wednesday to Thursday. Live sales on Thursday were reported on either side of 140.00 and are sitting 2.00 lower than last week's weighted average price. The way things are shaping up fed cattle prices are on track to establish new annual lows this week.

    Cattle market information below is from Canfax, a division of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association. More market information, analysis and statistics are available by becoming a Canfax subscriber by calling 403-275-5110 or at www.canfax.ca.

    Fed price stabilizes
    The Canfax weighted average steer price was $143.01 per hundredweight, up 54 cents from the previous week. There was no heifer average.

    The price was $4 lower than the same time last year and down $2.50 from the five-year average.

    There were no sales to U.S. buyers, and one Alberta packer bought the lion’s share of the cash cattle.

    Dressed sales were $238-$241 delivered.

    Cattle were mostly scheduled for delivery in the week of Aug. 14, but by the end of the week the delivery point was pushed back to Aug. 21.

    The Alberta-to-Nebraska cash basis was about -$4.75. It would be the second strongest August basis in 12 years.

    Weekly western Canadian slaughter to July 29 was 47,500 head, the most for a week since July 2010.

    Packers are drawing on their contracted cattle, and by the second half of the month that supply should mostly be delivered.

    In 20 of the past 30 years prices rose into August. The average for those 20 years was two percent.

    If that held, prices in August would average $146.

    In the United States, cash live sales in the south were at US$117-$118 by the end of the week. Dressed sales in the north were $186-$189, similar to the previous week.

    Japanese tariff

    Because of a rapid rise in its beef imports, Japan has triggered an increase in its tariff on frozen beef, which will rise to 50 percent from 38.5 percent.

    Overall, these tariffs are not likely to have a noticeable market impact, given the many dimensions to the Canadian market, but it does point to the importance of having free trade agreements that provide more consistent market access. If the Trans-Pacific Partnership had been implemented, tariff rates would likely be going down rather than up.

    Cows fall

    D1, D2 cows ranged C$92-$106 to average $99.38 per cwt., down $2.63.

    D3 cows ranged $80-$96 to average $88.21.

    Rail grade cows ranged $187-$192 per cwt.

    Bulls averaged $116.60, down $3.46.

    The large number of fed cattle available has reduced demand for non-fed animals, but nevertheless, slaughter last week at 5,166 was up 1,000 from the previous week. Also, the stronger Canadian dollar is weighing on the price. However, the market here still has a premium over the U.S.

    Feeder market mixed

    Calves were under pressure while heavier feeders edged higher on light volumes.

    There was a wide price range on lighter animals because fresh calves have started to come to market.

    Steer calves 550 pounds have fallen $40 from their highs but are still up $9 over last year at this time.

    Heavier feeders rose because supply is fairly light and feedlots are looking for replacements.

    Western feedlots did most of the buying.

    Forward delivery yearlings were in short supply and prices were steady with the cash market.

    Feeders at electronic sales saw short lift times, likely because of poor pasture conditions.

    Some electronic sales saw dry lot heifers sell at a $4-$6 discount to heifers off grass.

    Auction volume was light as it usually is this time of year. It is dry in some areas, but there has not been a flush of early marketings.

    Feedlots are generally profitable on the cattle they are marketing, and the feeder market should be mostly steady near term.

    Cow-calf pairs were $1,700-$2,500.

    US beef mixed

    The U.S. Choice cutout fell US$1.27 to $205.16 while Select rose $1.12 to $197.78. The amount of U.S. beef grading Prime and Choice is much higher than usual, and yet Choice premiums over Select have been strong, indicating strong consumer demand.

    Canadian cutouts were not available.

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    Canadian Cattle Prices:
    Prices have been converted to U.S. $/CWT. Grades changed to approximate U.S. equivalents
    Exchange Rate: Canadian dollar equivalent to $0.7944 U.S. dollars
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    Prices for the week ending August 4th:
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    The "Nord Fork"

    Replaces Flankers at Branding
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    U.S. Beef Exports Up Over 11%
    U.S. Meat Export Federation
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    US beef exports continued to trend above year-ago levels in June, capping a very strong first half of the year.

    According to statistics released by USDA and compiled by USMEF, exports also achieved higher values on a per-head-slaughtered basis and accounted for a steady-to-higher percentage of total production.

    June beef exports were the largest of 2017, reaching 109,554 metric tons (mt) – up 11 per cent year-over-year and the largest June total since 2011. Export value increased 10 per cent to $602.5 million. For January through June, beef exports were up 12 per cent in volume (606,876 mt) and 15 per cent in value ($3.35 billion) compared to the first half of last year.

    Exports accounted for nearly 13 per cent of total US beef production in June and 10 per cent for muscle cuts only – each about even with a year ago. The ratios were the same for January through June, which was also steady with the first half of last year. Export value per head of fed slaughter averaged $264.51 in June, up 6 per cent from a year ago. Through June, per-head export value was up 8 per cent to $269.21.

    "In this time of large red meat production, the upward trend in per-head export value and in the percentage of production exported is especially critical to the industry," said USMEF President and CEO Philip Seng.

    "These metrics confirm that we’re not simply exporting more red meat because more is available – those exports are also generating excellent returns. It was also gratifying to see that the US trade deficit narrowed in June due to an expansion of exports, knowing that the red meat industry made another solid contribution toward that effort."

    Chilled beef to Asia drives first-half growth, but exports increased to most destinations

    Beef exports to leading market Japan continued to gain momentum in June, with volume up 7 per cent to 27,521 mt and value up 13 per cent to $174.4 million (the highest since 2000). First-half exports to Japan exceeded last year’s pace by 23 per cent in volume (150,812 mt) and 28 per cent in value ($905.8 million). This included a 40 per cent increase in chilled beef exports to 70,807 mt, valued at $511 million (up 38 per cent), as the US captured more than 50 per cent of the chilled beef market. While demand for US beef is very strong in Japan’s retail and foodservice sectors, frozen exports to Japan face a higher tariff rate through March 2018.
    See more details on this issue.

    June exports to South Korea were the largest since January at 14,701 mt, up 14 per cent from a year ago, valued at $92.4 million (up 20 per cent and the highest of 2017). First-half exports to Korea were up 13 per cent in volume (83,357 mt) and 21 per cent in value ($527.7 million). The US also captured more than 50 per cent of Korea’s chilled beef market as chilled exports totaled 18,816 mt (up 83 per cent year-over-year) valued at $166 million (up 86 per cent).

    Other first-half highlights for US beef exports included:

    • Exports to Taiwan totaled 20,376 mt (up 19 per cent from a year ago) valued at $179 million (up 26 per cent). This included chilled beef exports of 8,178 mt (up 19 per cent) valued at $93.5 million (up 22 per cent) as the US captured more than 70 per cent of Taiwan’s chilled beef market.
    • After a slow start to the year, exports to Hong Kong rebounded to post double-digit first-half gains in both volume (56,846, up 11 per cent) and value ($357.4 million, up 17 per cent).
    • Exports to Mexico increased 3 per cent in volume (114,923 mt) while slipping 3 per cent in value ($459.7 million). But muscle cut exports to Mexico – mainly shoulder clods, rounds and other end cuts – fared better, increasing 9 per cent in volume (61,782 mt) and 2 per cent in value ($353.8 million).
    • Led by a doubling of exports to Viet Nam and Indonesia and strong demand in the Philippines, exports to the ASEAN region increased 85 per cent in volume (20,532) and 61 per cent in value to $99 million.
    • Fueled by strong growth in Chile, Guatemala and Colombia, exports to Central and South America increased 11 per cent in volume (19,137 mt) and 5 per cent in value ($83.8 million). Exports to Brazil, which began in late April, totaled 412 mt of muscle cuts and 651 mt of variety meat at a combined value of $2.6 million.
    • After reopening in 2016, South Africa quickly emerged as the fourth-largest destination for US beef variety meat, with first-half exports (mainly livers) reaching 7,849 mt – an increase of nearly 500 per cent from a year ago – valued at $6 million.
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    USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates
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    LIVESTOCK &POULTRY: The forecast for total meat production in 2017 is raised from last month, as increases in commercial beef and broiler production more than offset declines in pork and turkey production. The increase in beef production reflects r elatively large cattle placements in the second quarter which will likely impact fourth quarter cattle slaughter. Second quarter broiler production is raised slightly based on June production data, but no change is made to the outlying quarters. Pork production is reduced on lower expected slaughter in the third quarter. Forecast turkey production is reduced on a slower-than-expected recovery in demand and relatively poor returns to producers. Egg production is increased modestly on recent hatchery data. For 2018, the beef production forecast is raised from the previous month, as expected higher placements in late 2017 and early 2018 result in higher steer and heifer slaughter. Pork, poultry, and egg production forecasts for 2018 are unchanged from the previous month. 

    For 2017, beef imports are raised, as higher-than-expected shipments of lean processing beef from Oceania in June are expected to carry into the third quarter. The beef export forecast is lowered from last month on recent trade data and an expected slowdown in global demand for the remainder of 2017. Pork imports are raised slightly on recent trade data. The second quarter pork export forecast is adjusted for June data, but the forecast for the remainder of the year is unchanged. The broiler export forecast is reduced on weak foreign demand. Turkey exports are adjusted to reflect June data. For 2018, the beef import forecast is unchanged from the previous month while exports are lowered slightly. Pork, poultry, and egg trade forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. 

    Fed cattle prices are reduced in 2017 and 2018 as current prices have weakened and larger expected supplies of fed cattle are expected to pressure prices. Hog price forecasts are raised for 2017 and 2018 on continued strength in demand. The annual broiler price forecast for 2017 is raised, but the price forecast for 2018 is unchanged. The turkey price forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are lowered on slow recovery in demand. The egg price forecast for 2017 is raised, but no changes are made to the 2018 price forecast. 

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    Comprehensive Beef Cutout Values
    CME Group
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    USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service Market News Division (AMS) constructs a weekly set of cutout (wholesale carcass equivalent values) and underlying primal values for all transactions covered under Livestock Mandatory Reporting legislation.

    That report is weekly and "comprehensive" in that all transaction types are included (e.g. cash and formula priced). Today, we highlight three graphics constructed on a monthly basis from that report and focus on the five sale categories. Those categories are: 1) Prime grade (summary of the highest USDA Quality Grade); 2) Branded beef (includes Certified Angus and other differentiated/branded items); 3) Choice grade (USDA grade); 4) Select grade (the lowest USDA Quality Grade summarized); and 5) Ungraded.

    A cutout value is an aggregation of primal components of a carcass. The primal value is a summation of beef cut prices that make-up the primal. Primal components of the beef carcass are Rib, Chuck, Round, Loin, Brisket, Short Plate, and flank. The first graphic shows the AMS comprehensive cutout values for recent months. Note that the values are highest for Prime and lowest for Ungraded. The second graphic shows the cutout values for last month (July) and the breakout in value by primal. As shown in the second graph, in July at over $54.00 per cwt., the value of Prime above Choice was the largest since March 2012. In just a few months, that premium can move dramatically, largely because rather small amounts are produced, and users are mostly "white tablecloth" restaurants. The premium of Branded over Choice has remained relatively stable. A significant within-year pattern (seasonal) occurs for Choice over Select, it also has a longterm range about $20.00 per cwt.

    Premiums are associated with only two primals, the Rib and the Loin. Both of those primals are made-up of cuts that are referred to a “middle meats” and are steaks, Prime Rib, etc. Quality grade is important regarding carcass value, but not for all the primals, as clearly depicted in the final graphic (data for July 2017).

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    USDA National Retail Beef Report:
    Advertised Prices for Beef at Major Retail Supermarket Outlets
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    This week in the Beef Retail Feature Rate, Special Rate and Activity Index were lower compared to last week. Most Beef items had less ad space and features when compared to last week and even last year. however, Top Round Steak, Chuck Roast and Chuck steak had more ad space than the previous week. Cuts with sharpley less ad space were Sirloin Tip Roast, Brisket, Flat Iron Steak and Ground Sirloin. In the 4 Week Comparison Index Rib, Chuck, Round were stronger this week when compared to the prior week. Loin, Brisket and Ground Beef were lower compared to last week.
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    Cattle Slaughter Up But Increasing Slower Than Last Year
    Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension
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    Total cattle slaughter is up 5.9 percent year over year for the year to date.  This follows a 6.4 percent year over year increase in 2016.  However, steer slaughter (which makes up more than half of cattle slaughter) is growing more slowly in 2017 and is up 3.5 percent so far this year compared to 2016.  The year to date increase is declining as weekly steer slaughter has averaged just 1.1 percent year over year increases since late April. Steer slaughter peaked seasonally in June and will trend lower week to week for the remainder of the year. On July 1, the number of steers in feedlots was 1.4 percent above last year and is projected to keep steer slaughter growth relatively low for the remainder of the year.  Total annual steer slaughter may be limited to less than a two percent year over year increase in 2017.

    Heifer slaughter is up 10.5 percent so far in 2017.  This compares to a 4.7 percent year over year increase in 2016.  The July 1 heifer on feed inventory was 10.6 percent higher than one year earlier.  Heifer slaughter is likely to remain elevated for the rest of 2017.  Increased heifer slaughter and heifer on-feed inventories likely indicate a slower pace of heifer retention in 2017.  However, average steer to heifer slaughter ratios are still very large compared to historical averages.  It will be some months before heifer slaughter increases to typical levels compared to steer slaughter.  Seasonally, heifer slaughter decreases from a spring peak to lower summer levels before increasing slightly through the third quarter. 

    So far in 2017, beef cow slaughter is running 10.4 percent above 2016 levels.  This follows a 13.7 percent year over year increase in 2016.  Although increased beef cow slaughter is consistent with slower herd growth, it does not indicate herd liquidation or even zero herd growth.  If beef cow slaughter continues at the current pace (as projected) through the end of the year, net culling for the beef herd will still be under nine percent and less than the long term average culling rate.  The sharp increase in beef cow slaughter in 2016 and 2017 is mostly the result of very low culling during herd expansion since 2014.  More cows in the herd plus previously delayed culling means that a substantial increase in beef cow slaughter is inevitable.  By 2018, herd culling rates may return to typical levels.  Beef cow slaughter typically increases sharply in the fourth quarter to a seasonal peak but is projected to maintain the current year over year levels for the remainder of the year.  Dairy cow slaughter has increased recently bringing the current year to date level up to 3.0 percent above last year.  This follows a 1.0 percent year over year decrease in 2016.

    Total cattle slaughter in 2017 is projected to increase 4.5 to 5.0 percent year over year.  Cattle slaughter will likely increase another 3.5 to 4.0 percent in 2018 with larger feeder supplies; less heifer retention; and increased cow culling all pushing slaughter higher through 2018.

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    Photo of the Week:
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  • 125 Angus Bred Heifers... N. Central OK*^-FD
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    "Shootin' the Bull" Weekly Analysis:
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    In my opinion, clearly I was blindsided by this weeks lower trade.  I take no solace in that it appears most were as well.  It has led to some lengthy discussions around the office as to how and why.  Conspiracy theories are abundant, but no way to prove.  Thoughts that commercial yards some how knew of the coming lower cash trade, smelled it or conceived it in some way by not even remotely taking a stance for an even or just a dollar lower trade, but $3.00 lower all at one time with seeming ease.  From others read, it appeared the packer needed inventory and found it easier than thought to buy cattle cheaper.  Of one thing I don’t think, I don’t think this had much to do at all with the recent North Korean issues.  No other market acted in any form that suggested such and for the cattle market to be the leading indicator of impending disaster or a nuclear holocaust is a little far fetched. Nonetheless, we were dealt this hand and it is what we have to work with. 

    Putting this week’s inconsistencies to the side, my analysis has changed on the wave count.  The current major wave 4 in the works has taken too much time to be considered a wave 4.  Therefore, I am changing the wave count to reflect the rally from the October ’16 inception to the May high as a major wave 1 rally.   This makes the current correction a major wave 2 with anticipation of a major wave 3 rally.  The sideways trading, overlapping of waves, a 50% retracement from low to high, and the unexplainable shenanigans pulled this week all leads me to anticipate further movement higher.  The price movement this week did produce some finite price points to watch for.  First would be a reversal were this move from July 19th to present only be a 3 wave move.  A trade above the July 31st low per respective contract month will lead me to perceive this move as complete and I want to be a buyer of the February and April fats.  Were the market to trade sideways for a day or two and then make a new low, I will look to be a buyer.  No doubt I was at a loss most of this week, but having reconfigured the wave count, and taking this weeks seemingly unorthodox trade into consideration, I do not want to be short this market.

    The feeders remain in even better shape now than the fats.  The fats led the rally the 1st half of the year and I anticipate the feeders to lead the way out of this correction.  The difference between fats and feeders is stark.  The feeders remain dollars above their June lows with the back months significantly off the June lows.  A trade above $140.92 will have me being a buyer in the January feeder cattle.  Were there to be one to two days of sideways trading, then a new low, I will look to be a buyer.  When I felt the worst yesterday, a client reminded me that moving cattle was a good thing and this years hard pull in the first half will make for significant marketing gaps sooner, rather than later.

    I was terribly wrong on corn.  I think it hard to see under $3.50.  More likely than not, tremendous trading for weeks in the current price range. 

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    Christopher B. Swift is a commodity broker and consultant with Swift Trading Company in Nashville, TN. Mr. Swift authors the daily commentaries "mid day cattle comment" and "Shootin' the Bull" commentary found on his website @ www.shootinthebull.com

    An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits.  You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. 
    PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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    U.S. Dollar - 6 Month Chart:
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    Over the last 5 years, an average of around 10% of U.S. beef production has been exported, making exports an extremely important factor affecting beef and cattle prices.  A strong dollar depresses export demand.
  • U.S. Dollar Index
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    Choice Boxed Beef Cutout, Slaughter, & Feeder Steers:
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    Boxed beef cutout values lower on Choice and steady on Select on light to moderate demand and offerings. Select and Choice rib, chuck, and round cuts steady to weak.  Choice loin cuts weak while Select firm. Beef trimmings not fully established.

    Compared to Last Week:  Trading activity on imports was slow. Prices were mostly moderately to sharply lower, instances weak to lower. Import supplies remained tight but weaker demand and heavy domestic supplies continued to pressure the import market.

    The average value of hide and offal for the five days ending Fri, Aug 11, 2017   was estimated at 11.00 per cwt., down 0.37 from last week and down 0.24 from last year.

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    A Weaned Calf Is Always a Weaned Calf or Is It?
    Ag Center Cattle Report
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    Important changes to the offerings of calves over the past few years are noteworthy. Breeders are listening to their customers and responding to problems and special needs especially when rewarded with improved pricing. Some of the value added gets confusing. The various vaccination regimes receive special names and are sometimes confusing. Special handling and treatment resulting in "all natural" are available to buyers. Probably the most important and long lasting change is the weaning programs provided on many ranches across all regional areas of the country.

    Sales of calves 5 years ago were mostly unweaned offerings and provided health challenges for buyers. Breeders have quickly learned and are profiting from weaning calves on site before they are offered for sale. These weaned offerings are bringing large premiums and properly rewarding the breeder. Calves weaned on the breeding site rarely expose the operators to the type health events and challenges well known to all buyers of unweaned calves. This trend toward weaning is expected to continue and the offerings in the future will tend to be all weaned calves.

    Buyers of weaned calves are also learning the hard way that all weaned calves are not the same. Offerings of some calves disclose no weaning date, other offerings represent weaning dates of from 30-90 days and buyers have found a large difference between weaning dates prior to the delivery date. Calves with 30-60 weaning days sometimes falls short of the necessary time to properly wean the calves and prevent future health outbreaks. More safety is found with calves weaned a full 90 days but sometimes the logistics is difficult and demanding of the rancher's operation.

    Supporting the decision to wean on site is the reduced use of antibiotics. The cattle industry has overused antibiotics for years and is now paying the price with treatments failing to achieve the necessary response from animals. Big Phama has helped aggravate the problem by creating unworkable withdrawal standards on legacy products that have become generic and lost patent protection. Those drugs can be purchased for a few cents a dose but once taken off the market, Big Phama has a replacement selling for $10-15 a dose ready to sell to producers. The new drugs are allowed a tolerance after withdrawal. Pressure will be on the industry to work more in the area of developing the immune system rather than drug treatments.

    Buying calves requires data points charting historic performance results by buyers to maintain each buyers level of interest in particular calf crops. Those calves not weaned properly or with sufficient time before delivery will find future buyers wary of their representations. It also is true that calves from some environments can wean for shorter periods and delivery the representations hoped for by the buyers.

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    ABC Settles the "Pink Slime" Lawsuit
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    (Reuters) - The U.S. ABC television network, owned by Walt Disney Co (DIS.N), has settled its closely watched defamation lawsuit with Beef Products Inc over news reports on a processed beef product that critics dubbed "pink slime," both companies said on Wednesday.

    Walt Disney Co., parent of ABC News, is likely funding $177 million of its settlement with Beef Products Inc. in the processor’s libel and defamation suit against the network, while Disney’s insurers cover the remainder of the cost, according to a a BPI attorney.

    South Dakota-based BPI sued ABC for $1.9 billion over its 2012 coverage of lean finely textured beef, including its use of the term “pink slime” to describe the product. Under South Dakota law, such a claim may be trebled. Terms of the settlement, reached in June, were not announced.

    In a quarterly financial filing on Tuesday, Disney disclosed a charge of $177 million, “net of committed insurance recoveries,” incurred in connection with the settlement of litigation.

    "As Disney disclosed, $177 million is not the total settlement amount. Based on Disney's disclosure, it appears that Disney is funding $177 million of the settlement and its insurers are paying the rest," Dan Webb of Winston & Strawn, who headed up the litigation for BPI in the case against ABC.

    Privately-held BPI had claimed that the American Broadcasting Company (ABC) and Avila defamed the company by calling its processed beef product “pink slime” and making errors and omissions in a series of 2012 reports. BPI calls the product "lean finely textured beef."

    BPI attorney Dan Webb told Reuters the settlement came together "quickly this week," but declined to provide details, citing a confidentiality agreement signed by both parties.

    The settlement came 3-1/2 weeks after the trial in the case got under way in Elk Point, South Dakota, around 25 miles (40 km) northwest of Sioux City, Iowa. BPI is based in nearby Dakota Dunes, South Dakota.

    ABC said in a statement that it stood by its reporting. Avila said after the case was settled that the company was not retracting his stories or apologizing, and his 2012 "pink slime" reports remained on the ABC News website.

    BPI's signature product, commonly mixed into ground beef, is made from beef chunks, including trimmings, and exposed to bursts of ammonium hydroxide to kill E. coli and other contaminants. A former microbiologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture is credited with having coined the term "pink slime."

    "While this has not been an easy road to travel, it was necessary to begin rectifying the harm we suffered as a result of what we believed to be biased and baseless reporting in 2012," BPI said in a statement.

    "Through this process, we have again established what we all know to be true about Lean Finely Textured Beef: it is beef, and is safe, wholesome, and nutritious."

    ABC maintains its reports were correct and has said its reporting deserved protection under the U.S. Constitution's First Amendment, which guarantees freedom of speech and the press.

    "Throughout this case, we have maintained that our reports accurately presented the facts and views of knowledgeable people about this product," ABC said in a statement, saying that it agreed to the settlement because "continued litigation of this case is not in the company's interests."

    Dane Butswinkas, an attorney for ABC and Avila, did not immediately respond to request for comment.

    "We're not retracting anything. We're not apologizing for anything," Avila told reporters outside of the Union County Courthouse where the trial was being held, in a report posted on the website of the local NBC affiliate.

    The trial had been expected to last eight weeks.

    BPI had claimed up to $1.9 billion in damages, which could have been tripled to $5.7 billion under South Dakota's Agricultural Food Products Disparagement Act.

    During its reports, ABC used the term "pink slime" more than 350 times across six different media platforms including TV and online, Webb said during opening statements on June 5.

    In the aftermath of ABC's broadcasts, BPI closed three of its four processing plants and said its revenue dropped 80 percent to $130 million. The company had around 1,300 employees before the reports. Some 700 were let go shortly after, Erik Connolly, a BPI attorney, told Reuters on Wednesday.

    "If inaccurate information is being put out there by a news organization, particularly one with a powerful reach, it can cause tremendous damage," he said. "There are real consequences to that for real people."

    Attorneys for ABC countered in opening arguments that the term was commonly used before ABC's reports and said that BPI's business was already suffering.

    Sonja West, a professor of First Amendment law at the University of Georgia School of Law, said the case did not set a precedent because it ended in a settlement. 

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    Feeder Steers/Corn Correlation:
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    Historically, the value of 25 bushels of corn has been approximately equal to the price per cwt. for feeder steers.
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    Slaughter Cows & Bulls:
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    Slaughter cows and bulls sold mostly steady to 2.00 higher where noted. 

    Cutter Cow Carcass Cut-Out Value Friday was 181.69 -- Up 0.97 from last Friday. 

                      Weight          Montana         Oklahoma        Alabama 
    Breakers  1100-1600   69.00-73.50   72.00-75.75    64.00-69.00
    Boners     1000-1450   71.00-76.50    70.50-76.00    66.00-71.00
    Lean         1000-1300   70.00-74.50    68.00-72.55    61.00-66.00
    Bulls          1300-2500   85.00-94.25   91.00-96.00    92.00-95.00

                  Confirmed  Week Ago  Year Ago  YTD     Year Ago
    National    7,213          6,715          7,971   36,860     38,505
    S Central  2,202          2,457          2,348   10,263     10,496
    N Central     766              723          1,008     3,341       3,398
    East          1,752           1,596          2,213     9,466     10,462
    West            893              777          1,024      5,772       6,234
    Midwest    1,600          1,162          1,378      8,018       7,915


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    Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection:
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    Total red meat production under Federal inspection for the week ending Saturday, August 12, 2017 was estimated at 991.6 million lbs. according to the U.S.Department of Agriculture's Marketing Service. This was 1.0 percent higher than a week ago and 4.8 percent higher than a year ago.  Cumulative meat production for the year to date was 3.2 percent higher compared to the previous year.
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    Weekly Hay Reports: "Click" on links for detailed report
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    Weekly Feedstuffs Market Review:
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    The USDA Market News Service reports feed ingredient prices for the week ending August 08, 2017 were mixed. 
    • Soybean Meal was mixed, 5.00 lower to 2.20 higher, mostly 0.80 lower. Cottonseed Meal was mixed, 30.00 lower to 10.00 higher.  Canola Meal was 0.80 to 12.50 lower. Linseed Meal was 10.00 to 30.00 lower. Sunflower Meal was steady to 5.00 lower. 
    • Whole Cottonseed was mixed, 18.00 lower to 12.00 higher.
    • Crude Soybean Oil was 10 points lower. Crude Corn Oil was 25 points lower. 
    • Ruminant Meat and Bone Meal was mixed, 30.00 lower to 5.00 higher, mostly steady to 25.00 lower. Ruminant Blood Meal was mixed, 125.00 lower to 40.00 higher, mostly 50.00 to 125.00 lower. Feather Meal was steady to 40.00 higher. Menhaden Fishmeal was steady. 
    • Corn Hominy was steady to 10.00 lower. Corn Gluten Feed was mixed, 5.00 lower to 22.00 higher, mostly steady to 3.00 higher. Corn Gluten Meal was steady to 20.00 lower. 
    • Distillers Dried Grain was mostly mixed, 5.00 lower to 5.00 higher, mostly steady to 5.00 lower. 
    • Wheat Middlings were mixed, 15.00 lower to 12.00 higher, mostly steady to 5.00 lower. Wheat millrun was steady to 3.00 lower.
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    5 Year Bullish/Bearish Consensus Charts:
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    The theory behind the "Bullish/Bearish Consensus" indicator is when the public reaches a consensus, they are usually wrong:
    • They get too bullish after prices have risen and too bearish after they have already fallen.
    Because of this tendency, there are often extremes in opinion right before major changes in trend:
    • When the public reaches a bullish extreme, i.e., a great majority thinks prices will keep rising, then prices often decline instead. 
    • And when they become too bearish, then prices tend to rise.
    So when Public Opinion moves above the red dotted linein the chart, it means that compared to other readings over the past year, you're seeing excessive optimism. You also want to look at the absolute level of Opinion, too - if it's at 90%, then there's no question we're seeing an historic level of bullish opinion.  Watch for readings above 80% (or especially 90%) to spot those dangerous times when the public is overly enthusiastic about a commodity.

    Conversely, when Public Opinion moves below the green dotted line, then the public is excessively pessimistic about the commodity's prospects for further gains compared to their opinion over the past year.  Looking for absolute readings under 20% (or especially 10%) often indicates an upturn in the market.

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    Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Cattle
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    Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Corn
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    Stock Markets & Economic News:
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    Growing concerns about the risk of conflict on the Korean Peninsula and some disappointing corporate earnings reports sent the major U.S. equity benchmarks lower for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s streak of nine record-setting high closes ended Tuesday as rhetoric between the U.S. and North Korea escalated, with President Donald Trump saying that North Korean aggression would be met by “fire and fury.” More substantial losses followed on Thursday -- for the day, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 2.13%, the broader S&P 500 Index declined 1.45%, and the blue chip Dow was off nearly 1%.

    Thursday’s sell-off ended a period of record-low volatility during which the S&P 500 Index had gone 15 days without moving more than 0.30%. Equities recovered somewhat on Friday. Despite the down week, U.S. large-cap stocks and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite still have substantial year-to-date gains, while small- and mid-cap shares are holding on to smaller gains.

    According to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index rose 0.1% in July, less than consensus expectations. Over the past 12 months, prices have increased 1.7%, which is less than the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. Motor vehicle prices continued to fall, as dealers work through new car inventories and deal with a glut of used cars coming from rental car companies, among other factors. Besides vehicles, core goods (which exclude the food and energy sectors) posted a small increase, likely showing some impact from recent dollar weakness, said Levenson.

    In separate reports, job openings reached a record high in June, while new jobless claims remained near historic lows, although they ticked up from the previous week.

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    U.S. Stocks:
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    "Click Here" to view a Slide Show of Drought Monitor maps for the last 12 weeks
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    Looking Ahead:
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    Since the Tuesday morning cutoff for this week’s map, rain has continued to fall on the central and southern High Plains and over a swath from south central Texas to the mid-Atlantic. 

    For August 9-15, the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center forecasts more rain across the drought-stricken regions of the upper Midwest and Great Plains. The upper Midwest and northern Plains can expect to see about an inch of rain while locations in the southern Plains and Mid-Atlantic may see amounts approaching 3 inches. Rainfall should keep temperatures in these regions near or below normal. Conditions in the Pacific Northwest are not expected to show considerable improvement over the coming week with the forecast of minimal rainfall amounts and continued warm temperatures.

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    Slaughter Cattle Make New Lows for the Year
    Cassie Fish -- cassandrafish.com
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    Cattle feeders aggressively sold cattle this week at new lows for the year, many determined to capture shrinking profits and stay current on marketings. Trade on Wednesday occurred from $114-115.50 and $185 dressed. The last time fed cattle prices were this low was December 2016, which is also the last time spot live cattle futures were this low.

    Cheaper cattle costs ought to keep kills big and big kills require aggressive pricing to move through the system. This week kill expectations are 638-645k. This August is shaping up as one of the very few that may see no cutout rally at all, as moving what may well be the largest beef production of the year this month as well as the largest August beef production in 5-6 years is more important than price. The production surge is due to peak available supplies of cattle not carcass weight, a saving grace.

    Instead of seasonal strength, the cutout may sag sub-$200- not seen since February 2017. Last year this week, the cutout was $200.54 and going back to the years of similar beef production like 2013, the cutout was in the $180s-190s for August. When examined from this perspective, it’s a reminder that excellent domestic and export beef demand in 2017 has resulted in robust prices.

    Another saving grace are the aggressive retail beef features this week, choice ribeyes for $6.77 per pound and ground chuck from $1.99 to $2.48 per pound. Though August is a month involving lots of travel and is not known as a stellar beef month, at least the retailer is keeping attractive beef prices in front of the consumer that compete well against pork and poultry.

    This week’s darkly bearish cash market tone has pushed CME cattle futures lower, but not limit down. Live cattle futures lost another 6.1k of open interest yesterday as the orderly liquidation continues. Futures are $5 lower on the week while cash will probably average close to $3 lower. Today at least, is a ‘cash weaker than futures’ day, as futures retreat to levels seen in April and Aug, Oct and Dec LC below the trading range carved out over the past few months.

    Feeder cattle futures are finally losing to fats again, down $7 on the week, but many contracts are still above their June low. There are many who need to buy cash feeders and for those who haven’t paid the higher feeder prices the last few weeks, lower cash feeders would be a welcome by-product of this bearish downturn.

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    Feedyard Closeouts: Profit/(Loss)
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    Slaughter Cattle:
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    Slaughter Cattle: Friday trading in the Southern Plains has been at a standstill. In the Northern Plains and Western Cornbelt trading has been inactive on very light demand. Not enough trades for a full market trend in any feeding region. The last reported market was on Wednesday. In the Southern Plains and Colorado live trades were at 115.00. In Nebraska live and dressed trades were at 116.00 and 185.00, respectively. In the Western Cornbelt live and dressed trades were from 114.00-116.00 and mostly 183.00, respectively.

    Negotiated Sales: Confirmed: 711     Week Ago: 9,140      Year Ago: 13,591

    Formula Purchases: Net - Dressed
    Head count priced today: 15,900
    Weighted avg weight:             878
    Weighted avg net price:   186.08

    The FCE On-Line Auction offered1,659 head total on Wednesday with 518 head sold @ weighted average price of $115.04 per cwt.

    • 1-9 Day Delivery: 856 head total, 397 head sold, weighted average price $ 115.28
    • 1-17 Day Delivery: 562 head total, 48 head sold, weighted average price $ 114.50
    • 17-30 Day Delivery: 241 head total, 73 head sold, weighted average price $ 114.00
    Livestock Slaughter under Federal Inspection: 
                                     CATTLE    CALVES   HOGS        SHEEP
    Friday  (est)            114,000      2,000        426,000        7,000
    Week ago (est)       117,000     2,000        422,000         7,000
    Year ago (act)         112,000     2,000        409,000         6,000
    Week to date (est) 583,000      9,000     2,139,000      36,000
    Last Week (est)      582,000     9,000     2,174,000       38,000
    Last Year (act)        561,000      9,000     2,150,000      37,000

    Saturday  (est)           58,000         0             133,000         0
    Week ago (est)         52,000         0                76,000         0
    Year ago (act)           18,000          0               95,000         0
    Week to date (est)  641,000       9,000     2,272,000       36,000
    Last Week (est)      634,000       9,000     2,250,000       38,000
    Last Year* (act)       579,000       9,000     2,246,000       37,000
    2017 YTD           19,286,000   301,000  72,003,000  1,175,000
    2016 *YTD          18,187,000   273,000  70,102,000  1,228,000
    Percent change         6.0%          10.2%        2.7%           -4.3%

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    USDA Crop Production Report Sends Grain Lower
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    Corn Production Down 7 Percent from 2016
    Soybean Production Up 2 Percent from 2016
    Cotton Production Up 20 Percent from 2016
    Winter Wheat Production Up 1 Percent from July Forecast
    • Corn production is forecast at 14.2 billion bushels, down 7 percent from last year. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 169.5 bushels per acre, down 5.1 bushels from 2016. If realized, this will be the thirdhighest yield and production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.5 million acres, unchanged from the June forecast but down 4 percent from 2016.
    • Soybean production is forecast at 4.38 billion bushels, up 2 percent from last year. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 49.4 bushels per acre, down 2.7 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at a record high 88.7 million acres, unchanged from the June forecast but up 7 percent from 2016. Planted area for the Nation is estimated at a record high 89.5 million acres, also unchanged from June.
    • All cotton production is forecast at 20.5 million 480-pound bales, up 20 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 892 pounds per harvested acre, up 25 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 19.8 million 480-pound bales, up 19 percent from 2016. Pima cotton production is forecast at 770,000 bales, up 35 percent from last year.
    • All wheat production, at 1.74 billion bushels, is down 1 percent from the July forecast and down 25 percent from 2016. Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 45.6 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushel from last month and down 7 bushels from last year.
    Buoyant US crop supply hopes send corn, soy, wheat prices lower

    Corn, soybean and wheat futures tumbled after US officials, in a much-anticipated briefing, pegged domestic supplies of all three crops above market expectations – with world wheat supplies supported too by a huge upgrade to Russia's harvest.

    Corn futures for December tumbled 2.6% to $3.76 ¼ a bushel in Chicago, where soybean futures for November stood down 2.3% at $9.51 a bushel.

    Wheat futures for September dropped 2.0% to $4.50 ¼ a bushel in Chicago, and by 2.6% to $7.15 ¼ a bushel in the Minneapolis exchange, which trades the spring wheat which has been particularly closely watched by investors thanks to dryness in major growing regions in the US and Canada.

    The declines followed crop estimates in the US Department of Agriculture's monthly Wasde report on world crop supplies and demand which reversed ideas of a drop in world soybean supplies in 2017-18, and lifted expectations for the rise in wheat inventories.

    In corn, the estimate for US stocks at the close of 2017-18 was reduced, but by far less than investors had expected.

    Corn resilience

    Indeed, rather than cutting its estimate for the US corn yield by 2.5 bushels per acre, as investors had expected after a dry July for much of the Midwest, the USDA downgraded the forecast by a modest 1.2m bushels per acre, to 169.5 bushels per acre.

    While South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois "are forecast to have yields below a year ago… the projected yield for Indiana is unchanged relative to last year, while Nebraska and Ohio are forecast higher", the USDA said.

    While the yield reduction translated into a harvest downgrade of some 100m bushels, the cut was offset in part by a drop in expectations for corn exports and for domestic feed use of the grain.

    Although the US corn inventory forecast for the close of 2017-18 was downgraded by 50m bushels to 2.27bn bushels, that was well above the 2.00bn-bushel figure the market had expected.

    Surprise upgrade

    For soybeans, the USDA actually increased its domestic yield estimate, by 1.4 bushels per acre to 49.4 bushels per acre, rather than cutting it to 47.5 bushels per acre as traders had forecast.

    While some of the extra soybeans were seen being used up by increased export prospects, thanks to "lower prices", the upgrade translated into a 15m-bushel increase to 475m bushels in the estimate for US soybean inventories at the close of 2017-18.

    That was 50m bushels more than investors had expected.

    The upgrade fuelled a 4.3m-tonne hike to 97.8m tonnes in the estimate for world soybean inventories at the close of 2017-18, well ahead of market forecasts.

    'Outstanding conditions'

    For wheat, meanwhile, although the estimate for US output in 2017-18 was cut by 21m bushels, that was less than 50m-bushel downgrade that the market had expected.

    Figures for both winter and spring wheat came in ahead of investors' forecasts.

    And global supply prospects received a mammoth boost from an 8.6m-tonne hike to a record 77.5m tonnes in the forecast for Russian wheat output this year.

    The USDA flagged official Russian reports of "high winter wheat yields in the Southern, North Caucasus, and Central Districts of Russia.

    "In addition, satellite imagery indicates outstanding conditions and high potential yields in the country's spring wheat zone, including the Siberian, Ural, and Volga Districts."

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    Weekly Corn Crop Condition Report:
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    National Grain Summary:
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    Compared to last week, grain bids were lower with wheat trading mixed.  Corn and soybeans saw pressure early in the week from rain last weekend in parts of Kansas and Missouri.  The market saw more pressure later in the week as the WASDE report was released Thursday with corn yield estimates higher than expected at 169.5 bushels per acre, also increasing the expected ending corn stocks to 2.273 billion bushels.  Similar trends were given to soybean and wheat estimations as well.  Soybean yield estimates were at 49.4 bushels per acre, 1.4 bushels higher than pre WASDE report estimates.  Estimates for world wheat production were also higher than previously anticipated, putting bearish pressure on the wheat market.  Last week export sales totaled 2 million bushels of corn, 1.7 million bushels of soybeans, and 17.1 million bushels of wheat.  Wheat was 17 cents lower to 35 cents higher.  Corn was mostly 4-12 cents lower.  Sorghum was 10-11 cents lower.  Soybeans were 10-23 cents lower.

    Corn futures finished the day with 3 1/2 to 4 3/4 cent gains, as Sep was 1.57% lower on the week. The CFTC Commitment of traders report on Friday showed spec funds backing off their net long position by 17,571 contracts as of Tuesday with a net position of +67,073 contracts in corn futures and options. On Thursday afternoon, the FSA released data that shows 950,344 acres of corn was reported as prevented plantings as of August 1. That is a five year low and down 8.55% compared to 1.039 million acres in August 2016. In Thursday’s WASDE report, exports for new crop were lowered 25 mbu to 1.85 bbu, with the feed and residual number also being lowered to 5.45 bbu. South Korea tendered for 70,000 MT of corn, with results of the tender coming as late as Monday. 

    Wheat futures saw fractional to 1 3/4 cent losses in most CBT contracts on Friday, as KC was 5 to 7 cents lower in most contracts. MPLS was the biggest loser, as it was down 22 to 29 1/4 cents in nearby contracts. Spec traders flipped their net position from long to sh ort as of Tuesday in CBT futures and options. The net change was -26,291 contracts, as they now have an net short position of -14,101 contracts. Wheat prevented plant acres as of August 1, according to FSA data were down 65.52% from last year at 613,884 acres. Total spring wheat prevent plant acres for the 6 states were 237% larger than in August 2016 at 196,790 acres, but in a drought year the main issue is abandonment. The USDA lowered 17/18 US wheat yield 0.6 bpa to 45.6 bpa. Taiwan is seeking 98,850 MT of US wheat, with the tender to close on August 16. Russia’s IKAR analyst group updated their Russian wheat production number to 77-80 MMT from 74-77MMT, a day after the USDA increased their estimate to 77.5 MMT. In addition, SovEcon increased their estimate 5 MMT to 77.9 MMT. 

    USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates

    WHEAT: Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat supplies are decreased this month on lower production, down 21 million bushels to 1,739 million. The August NASS production forecasts for durum and other spring wheat indicated a significant decline compared to last year, primarily due to continued severe drought conditions affecting the Northern Plains. Partially offsetting this decrease is higher winter wheat production, on increased yields, with most of the production increase for white wheat. Food use estimates for both 2016/17 and 2017/18 are reduced, based primarily on the August 1, NASS Flour Milling Products report. The other wheat usage categories for 2017/18 are unchanged this month. Projected 2017/18 ending stocks are decreased 5 million bushels to 933 million. The 2017/18 season-average farm price is unchanged at the midpoint of $4.80 per bushel and the projected range remains at $4.40 to $5.20.

    Global 2017/18 wheat supplies increased significantly, primarily on an 8.6-million-ton production increase in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Russian production is a record 77.5 million tons, surpassing last year’s record by 5.0 million. Winter wheat yields are forecast higher for both Russia and Ukraine, based mainly on harvest results to date. Additionally, spring wheat conditions have remained very favorable for both Russia and Kazakhstan, resulting in higher production forecasts. Canadian wheat production is reduced 1.9 million tons to 26.5 million on the increasing intensification of drought conditions in major production areas of the Prairie Provinces. The increased FSU production more than offsets reduced production forecasts in Canada, EU, and U.S., raising 2017/18 global production by more than 5.0 million tons to 743.2 million.

    Foreign 2017/18 trade is increased on higher exports for Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan more than offsetting reductions in Canada and EU. Projected imports are raised for several countries, led by Indonesia and Nigeria. Total world consumption is projected higher, primarily on greater usage by Russia, Indonesia, and Nigeria. Projected global ending stocks are 4.1 million tons higher this month at 264.7 million, which is a new record.

    COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use and exports, and a decline in ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.2 billion bushels, down 102 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 169.5 bushels per acre, is 1.2 bushels lower than last month’s trend-based projection. This month’s Crop Production report indicates that South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois are forecast to have yields below a year ago. The projected yield for Indiana is unchanged relative to last year, while Nebraska and Ohio are forecast higher. Sorghum production is forecast 13 million bushels higher with the forecast yield 2.6 bushels per acre above last month’s projection. 

    Projected feed and residual use for 2017/18 is lowered 25 million bushels on a smaller crop. Exports are forecast down 25 million bushels, reflecting the increased competitiveness of supplies in Argentina and Brazil and the low level of new-crop outstanding sales. With supplies falling faster than use, ending stocks are reduced 52 million bushels. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $2.90 to $3.70 per bushel.

    This month’s 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for virtually unchanged production, lower trade, and greater stocks relative to last month. EU corn and barley production are reduced. Canada corn production is down on lower projected harvested area. Corn and barley production forecasts are raised for Russia based on higher corn area and favorable growing conditions for barley. Ukraine corn production is unchanged as a reduction in projected yield is offset by increased area. For 2016/17, corn production is increased for Brazil based on second crop corn harvest results to date.

    Major global corn grain trade changes for 2017/18 include corn export reductions for the EU, Serbia, and Canada. More than offsetting are increases for Ukraine and Russia. Brazil’s corn exports are raised for 2016/17 based on record-high shipments observed for the local marketing year beginning in March 2017. Corn imports for 2017/18 are raised, mostly reflecting increases for the EU and Iran. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised from last month. Historical revisions are made to corn stock estimates for Ukraine to better reflect statistics published by the government.

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    Five Year Moving Average - Corn & Wheat:
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