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| The Cattle Range Weekly
Market Summary contains a fairly comprehensive comparison
of the past week's prices from around the country in comparison to the
previous week, month, 6 months ago, & 1 year ago. The data is
compiled from a variety of sources and is organized to give producers additional
insight in determining market movement and trends. "Click
Here" to Sign
Up A Friend or Associate to receive the Weekly Market Summary.
Last Week's Market Summary... "Click Here" to receive the current Weekly Market Summary via e-mail on Saturday mornings. |
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| Market Summary for the week ending March 12th: |
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| The Cattle Range 10-Day Market Trend: |
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| An indicator
of overall cattle market strength.
The angle indicates direction & velocity of the trend. |
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| The Trendline
is based on daily market factors for the past 10 days.
The daily factors are weighted calculations of the cumulative Gain/(Loss) of 10 major market factors compared to the previous trading day. |
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| National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary: |
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| RECEIPTS:
Auctions Direct Video/Internet
Total
This Week 327,700 82,600 16,000 426,300 Last Week 348,600 51,800 38,300 438,700 Last Year 254,500 44,700 9,800 309,000 |
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| Compared to
last week, feeder and stocker cattle sold steady to 3.00 higher as buyers
continue to raise the bar for feedlot replacements as well as grazing-type
cattle. Demand remains very good, but there was a noticeable absence
of the sharply higher instances noted for thinner-type stockers as these
types have now reached consistently high price levels across the country.
Several large volume auction markets reported opening sales not quite reaching
last week’s levels but seeing the market gain momentum through the day
and into the evening hours on heavy offerings. These are good demand
signs of a wide buying base being forced to push price levels late in the
sale to complete orders, long after the market should have been established
and order sources had been contacted several times.
This week there was a significant increase in the available supply of cattle in the weight class and condition for commercial feedlots as a huge movement of wheat cattle made their way off Southern Plains fields. Mid-March is frustrating for wheat backgrounders as they are forced off pastures just as the forage and the cattle are starting to recover from the long hard winter. West Texas and Oklahoma have enjoyed favorable weather patterns of late as country roads are now readily passable and sellers can move their cattle to market, with nearly 25,000 head this week just between the Oklahoma National Stockyards and OKC West in El Reno. Further north into the Northern Plains and the Midwest, snowstorms have given way to the rainy season and conditions are totally saturated as even the rocks are starting to turn soft. This mud bog has arrived just as the spring calving season is hitting full swing and cow/calf producers are struggling to save weak calves born to winter stressed cows. Fed cattle prices moved higher this week as feedyard managers showed their staying power by holding off until Friday afternoon for price levels that finally have most pens turning a profit. Direct fed cattle sales were 2.00-3.00 higher from 94.00-95.00 in the southern feedlot areas, while the northern lots traded from 91.00-93.00 with packers not wanting to pay for the mud the cattle carry with them to the scales. This week’s reported auction volume included 53 percent over 600 lbs and 44 percent heifers. |
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| Stocker Steers: |
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| Feeder Steers: |
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| A Rare Sighting: |
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| The sighting
of a rare and endangered species was identified this past week -- profitable
bovines in feedyards which bodes will for other sectors of the cattle industry.
In what has been the most prolonged period of losses in the history of
the industry, most cattle close-outs are finally showing black ink. In
the past three years, there may have the occasional pen or lot of cattle
reporting a profit, or a few groups of backgrounded cattle, but the preponderance
of cattle close-outs have been characterized by losses and some of those
large.
It is important to remember the return to profitability is not a permanent condition and profitability is fragile. The margins in cattle closing out this coming week are not large and for some may not be positive because of the storms and performance deficiencies. Moreover replacement cattle have jumped higher and cattle feeders may simply be raising their risk profile for the future breakevens. Packers will not be encouraged by the market action this week. Box prices barely moved while the sharp jump in live cost threatened already skinny margins. The fact packers were willing to jump into the market at sharply higher prices means a couple of things. One, they believe the price rise is here to stay. More importantly for the bulls, it means packers believe shorter supplies will follow. Texas was not current on sales. Light volumes of sales, in the past few weeks, have taken a toll. Storms have slowed performance and reduced outweights, but the numbers of cattle on offer is currently large -- NOW. Behind the abundant supplies of March will be shortened supplies in April. Markets anticipate and we are witnessing a forecast for shorter supplies in the weeks ahead. There also is emerging signs of improvement in the export markets. Improving economies in Asia and a historically weak dollar are adding demand to our beef export markets. With the exception of Mexico, stronger demand is occurring from all of our trade partners. Mexico, our largest buyer of beef, is still in retaliation over the disastrous COOL program. The follow through to this week's market action will need to be demonstrated at the meat counters of the nation's grocery stores. If consumers are willing to support beef purchases at higher prices and, if retailers are willing to sponsor beef features, the current rally can be sustainable. |
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| Photo of the Week: |
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| The Saga of Bart -- Trials & Tribulations of a Cattle Buyer |
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| A policeman
observed Bart stumble out of a bar and stagger down the street, obviously
inebriated because he was trying to walk with one foot on the curb and
the other in the street.
The policeman pulled up beside Bart and said, "Sir, I'm going to have to ask you to get into the car. There's an ordinance against public drunkenness, but more importantly, you pose a threat to yourself and the public." Leaning up against the police car, Bart asked, "Ossifer, are you sure I'm drunk?" "Yes sir, I'm positive," replied the officer after looking at the breathalyzer reading. "Thank Gawd," slobbered Bart. "I was afraid I'd become a cripple." |
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| USDA Readjusts Price Forecasts: |
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| Cattle and
pig prices this year will be higher than previously forecast as meat supplies
tighten, partly because harsh winter weather hampered animals’ weight gain,
the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report this week. Prices for
choice steers are expected to average $87 to $92 per hundred pounds in
2010, up from $85 to $91 in a prior forecast, according to the USDA’s monthly
World Agricultural Supply and Demand report. Hogs will average $47 to $50
per hundredweight, up from $46 to $49.
The USDA also reduced its 2010 forecasts for U.S. beef, pork and poultry production and trimmed the 2009 corn harvest by 20 million bushels, to a still-record 13.131 billion bushels. Estimated milk production was raised and prices were reduced. Snowstorms hit much of the central U.S. during January and February, slowing shipping and forcing animals to eat more to stay warm. “Winter weather has stressed cattle in many parts of the country, which is reflected in lighter carcass weights,” the USDA said. As with cattle, slaughter-ready hog weights were lighter than expected, the USDA said. Total beef production is projected at 25.747 billion pounds, down from a previous estimate of 25.752 billion pounds and down 1.2 percent from 25.065 million pounds in 2009, the USDA said. Pork production was reduced to 22.45 billion pounds from 22.54 billion pounds. The new 2010 forecast is down 2.4 percent from production of 23.01 billion pounds in 2009. Export forecasts for beef and pork were unchanged from last month, at 2.04 billion pounds and 4.5 billion pounds, respectively. Dairy producers culled thousands of cows last year in the wake of a milk price crash, but herd contraction appears to be waning, the USDA indicated. Additionally, export demand for some dairy products, such as skim solids, was weaker than expected early this year. “Cow slaughter is relatively low and January milk cow numbers were higher than expected,” the USDA said. The pace of herd reduction “slowed from last month.” A slide in corn prices in recent months has already provided a boost for livestock producers’ profit outlook, and they may see further benefit amid lower than expected overseas demand, USDA data showed. The USDA cut its forecast for U.S. corn exports during the 2009-10 marketing year, to 1.9 billion bushels from 2 billion bushels, and raised ending stocks, to 1.799 billion bushels from 1.719 billion bushels. Farm prices for corn are expected to average $3.45 to $3.75 per bushel in 2009-10, down from a previously-forecast range of $3.45 to $3.95, the USDA said. |
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| Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection: |
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| Total red meat production under Federal inspection for the week ending Saturday, March 13, 2010 was estimated at 915.8 million lbs. according to the U.S.Department of Agriculture's Marketing Service. This was 0.4 percent lower than a week ago and 2.5 percent lower than a year ago. Cumulative meat production for the year to date was 3.9 percent lower compared to the previous year. |
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| Cattle & Beef Markets Near Seasonal Peaks? |
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| Cattle and
beef markets may be near the seasonal peak that usually occurs at the end
of the first quarter. The fact that all cattle and wholesale beef prices
have increased seasonally this year is a good sign compared to the counter-seasonal
first quarter weakness in cattle and beef prices last year. While it is
difficult to credit much of the current strength in cattle and beef prices
to economic recovery with any certainty, the fact that markets are behaving
seasonally is an indication that the economy is not dragging markets down
as it did this time last year.
Choice boxed beef price is currently about ten percent higher than this same time one year ago, while fed and feeder cattle prices are nearly 15 percent higher. Boxed beef and fed cattle prices have no doubt been helped by winter weather that has contributed to lighter carcass weights and reduced beef production. Choice boxed beef price appears to have stalled out this last week, unable to crack the $150/cwt. level but the fact that it is holding steady is a good sign given the weather disruptions in major consumer areas. Seasonal pressure on boxed beef prices will build in the next two to four weeks and boxed beef prices may have peaked unless additional demand support materializes. Fed cattle prices may have peaked a bit early, helped by winter weather, and have limited potential to move slightly higher before facing seasonal pressure as we move through April. Fed prices are higher due to stronger boxed beef and by-products values roughly $3/cwt. higher (live basis) than last year. Feeder prices appear to be getting support on several fronts. Heavy feeder cattle prices are stronger on limited supplies and better feedlot demand as feedlots see some opportunity to price cattle against strong Live cattle futures. Stocker cattle prices could easily increase a bit more into April as generally good moisture conditions across much of the U.S. is contributing to robust summer grazing demand in several regions of the country. While feeder, fed and boxed beef prices will all face seasonal price pressure into the summer, the impact may be limited due to limited cattle numbers; continued slow but steady economic recovery; and favorable trade patterns. The greatest threat, especially for feeder cattle, will be evolving corn market conditions. While corn prices have moderated significantly for the time being, concerns are already in place about delayed field work and possible late planting. From this point on the corn market will likely be more volatile as we engage in the annual game of second guessing corn production from now until harvest. Source: Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist |
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| Bullish/Bearish Consensus: |
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The theory
behind the "Bullish/Bearish Consensus" indicator is when the public
reaches a consensus, they are usually wrong:
Conversely, when Public Opinion moves below the green dotted line, then the public is too pessimistic about the commodity's prospects for further gains compared to their opinion over the past year. Looking for absolute readings under 20% (or especially 10%) often indicates an upturn in the market. |
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| Bullish/Bearish
Consensus - Cattle
Last Updated: March 9th |
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| Bullish/Bearish
Consensus - Corn
Last Updated: March 9th |
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| National Economic News: |
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| Grazing Health: Grass Tetany In Beef Cattle |
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| Grass tetany
is a nutritional disorder resulting from inadequate blood levels of magnesium
(Mg). Conditions which increase the risk of this problem include lush,
rapidly growing grass pastures, prolonged cloudy weather, older cows in
early lactation that are heavy milkers, and soils that are low in Mg and
calcium (Ca) and high in available potassium (K).
Pasture fertility plays a role in this problem. Phosphorus fertilization of low P containing soils has been shown to increase Mg content of tall fescue forage. Research has also shown that pastures fertilized with high levels of K and nitrogen (N) can cause a disruption of Mg absorption in grazing livestock. A balanced pasture fertility program based on soil test recommendations should eliminate these issues. Grass tetany most often affects cattle in late gestation or early lactation, especially the heaviest milking cows. Older animals are more susceptible to grass tetany than younger animals because they cannot mobilize bone Mg as efficiently as younger animals when dietary supplies are inadequate. Additionally, older animals are generally harder to keep in good body condition which also contributes to this metabolic problem. You should give a little extra care to older, thinner animals this time of year in relation to preventing grass tetany. Prevention is the best treatment and is most easily accomplished by providing Mg in a free choice, loose mineral supplement. Dry cows should consume 10 grams of Mg per day, while cows nursing calves should consume 20 to 25 grams of Mg daily. Mg supplements are not very palatable and Mg is quickly cleared from the blood, so it is important that animals consume Mg daily. In order to provide this amount, a commercial mineral mix containing at least 10 percent Mg is recommended. Other mixes can be made on-farm using a variety of feed and mineral ingredients. Feeding hay containing red clover or alfalfa is also beneficial, because legumes contain about twice as much Mg as grasses. |
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| Looking Ahead: |
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| Representative Sales of Cow & Pairs - This Week: |
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| Representative Sales of Cow & Pairs - Last Week: |
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| Feedyard Closeouts: Profit/(Loss) |
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| Slaughter Cattle: |
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| Thus far for
today, negotiated cash trade was active on very good demand in the Texas
Panhandle. Compared to last week live sales traded 2.00 to 3.00 higher
from 94.00 to 95.00. In Kansas trade was active on good demand with the
bulk of live sales 2.00 higher at 94.00 and dressed sales 4.00 higher at
148.00. In Nebraska trade was moderate on good demand with live sales 2.00
to 2.50 higher from 91.50 to 93.00 and dressed sales 2.00 to 3.00 higher
at 147.00. In Colorado trade was moderate on good demand with live sales
mostly 3.00 higher at 93.00 with instances at 94.00. In the Western Cornbelt
trade was light on moderate demand. Compared to Thursday the bulk
of dressed sales traded from 1.00 to 3.00 higher at 147.00. Last week live
sales traded from 88.00 to 90.00.
The average live weight of cattle slaughtered in the Texas Panhandle for the week ending 03-06-2010 was 1214 lbs with 38 percent heifers compared to 1220 lbs and 40 percent heifers the previous week and 1265 lbs and 40 percent heifers the same week a year ago. |
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| Market Overview: |
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| Two unusual
and important occurrences, for market bulls, were observable when cattle
traded for $95 on Friday. First, the market jumped $3 surprising even sellers.
Weekly moves of this magnitude are unusual. Second, the packer appetite
at higher prices was voracious and the volumes were large in every region.
Live sales in Nebraska averaged $91.50 -- full $3.50 behind Texas. In the
beef sales in the north were mostly at $147 -- two to three dollars higher
than prior week.
Box prices leveled out. The benchmark choice box cut was quoted at $149.50 with select at $149. Carcass weights in the latest lagging indicator remain well below prior year, but pens are drying and cattle recovering from the storms in the south. Feeder cattle futures fell along with cash bids. Larger movements off wet wheat fields pushed offerings higher and some feedlots want to confirm better cash prices on fed cattle before committing to higher feeder prices. The remaining cattle will be offered for May delivery and will occupy graze-out acres. |
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| National Grain Summary: |
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| Grain and soybean
bids were lower with wheat trading higher. Wheat was the leader today
due fund buying and the lower dollar. Corn and soybeans were pressured
by fund selling. So far the month of March has been very wet and
the outlook calls for more moisture across the Midwest. Planting
season is not too far away and if moisture persist concerns of planting
delays will arise.
This week's USDA supply/demand report was considered bearish for wheat and corn with soybeans considered neutral. The U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 1.001 billion bushels which was the largest projection since 1987-1988. Exports were left the same at the lowest level since 1971. Soft red ending stocks were up by 4 million bushels to 207 million bushels. Global ending stocks were also up to 196.7 million tonnes from 195.8 million last month. Corn ending stocks were up to 1.799 billion bushels from 1.719 billion last month. Exports were lowered at 1.9 billion. The USDA also changed the 2009-2010 average corn yield down to 164.9 bushels per acre from 165.2 in February. Global ending stocks for 2009-2010 season came in at 140.15 million tonnes versus 134.04 million tonnes in February and 146.40 million tonnes last year. Global usage was changed slightly higher and world production went up to 803.69 million tonnes. On the USDA report soybeans ending stocks for 2009-2010 were lowered to 190 million bushels from 210 million bushels in last month. Exports were changed higher by 20 million bushels and crush was raised by 10 million. Soybean oil ending stocks were up sharply to 2.637 billion pounds from 2.227 million in February. Brazil production pegged at 67 million tonnes as compared to 66 million tonnes last month. Argentina was left unchanged at 53 million tonnes. Global soybean ending stocks for 2009-2010 were up to 60.67 million tonnes from 59.73 million tonnes last month. |
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| Although the information contained in this Market Summary is from sources believed to be accurate and timely, THE CATTLE RANGE EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY OF THE CONTENT PROVIDED, OR AS TO THE FITNESS OF THE INFORMATION FOR ANY PURPOSE. |
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