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Weekly Market Summary
For the week ending December 9, 2016
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The Cattle Range Market Trendlines:
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With cattle futures only slightly higher for the week, cash cattle and dressed beef lower, combined with increased cow slaughter, higher corn, and a strong dollar, the 10 day trendline drifted into negative territory for the first time since late October.
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  • 10 Day Market Trendline
  • Change from Previous Day: -0.70%
     Change from 10 Days Ago: -0.30%
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    The Trendlines are indicators of overall cattle/beef market strength and are based on daily market factors.  Each daily factor is the aggregate weighted total of the Gain/(Loss) for 12 market indicators compared to the previous trading day. The angle indicates direction & velocity of the trend.
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  • 30 Day Market Trendline
  • Change from 30 Days Ago: +8.43%
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    • Click Here.to receive the WMS on Saturday mornings or have it sent to friends & associates.
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    Regular Contents: 
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  • Weekly Market Overview.
  • National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary.
  • Stocker & Feeder Steers.
  • Stocker & Feeder Cattle Weekly Receipts.
  • 5 Year Moving Avg. - Stocker, Feeder, & Slaughter Steers.
  • Selected Auction Reports.
  • Direct Sales of Feeder & Stocker Cattle.
  • Representative Sales of Cow & Pairs.
  • Canadian Cattle.
  • USDA National Retail Beef Report.
  • Photo of the Week.
  • Shootin' the Bull Weekly Analysis.
  • U.S. Dollar - 6 Month Chart.
  • Choice Boxed Beef Cutout, Slaughter, & Feeder Steers.
  • Feeder Steers/Corn Correlation.
  • Slaughter Cows & Bulls.
  • Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection.
  • Weekly Hay Reports.
  • Weekly Feedstuffs Market Review.
  • Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Cattle & Corn.
  • Stock Markets & Economic News.
  • Weather Outlook.
  • Feedyard Closeouts: Profit/(Loss).
  • Slaughter Cattle.
  • National Grain Summary.
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    Of Possible Interest:
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    Weekly Market Overview:
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    On-Line Store
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    National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary:
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    RECEIPTS:  Auctions   Direct    Video/Internet     Total
    This Week      325,500     43,100         27,200           395,800 
    Last Week      275,900     40,100         22,400           338,400 
    Last Year        337,900     41,300         25,100           404,300 

    Compared to last week, the majority of the calf and yearling market calls this week were steady to 3.00 lower.  Additionally, steers and heifers were very uneven with some weight groups in individual markets trending steady to 5.00 higher and instances as much as 10.00 higher while others were called from 2.00 to 10.00 lower depending on geographic area after last week's higher post-Thanksgiving holiday week.  A low pressure system has spread through the Plains and has brought treacherous roads in the North this week hindering producer’s ability to get cattle to market.  Old man winter has shown up with a bang bringing a bone chilling wind throughout the overwhelming majority of the country.  It's so cold, that even Brownsville, TX (the southernmost tip of TX) had a wind chill this morning of 31 degrees. 

    Most everyone in the country has had to dig out the winter gear and calendar wise, the winter solstice is only 12 days away.  The recent cold weather has "hardened up" the fleshy calves that were commonplace in the market the past few weeks.  In addition, pathogens that were prevalent during the mild fall would now be gone and producers can wean calves and treat flu-like symptoms easier than just a month ago.  Buyers continue to pay up for quality reputation strings of cattle.  On Wednesday in Kearney, NE at Huss-Platte Valley Livestock Auction two and a half loads of steers weighing 887 sold at 141.10.  On Thursday at Ogallala Livestock Market, a load of 511 lb steers sold at 169.00 and in Mobridge, SD a load of replacement quality heifers weighing 535 lbs sold at 170.00.  Buyers still had confidence that their purchases would make a profit, however for the most part, they wanted to buy them cheaper in case the bulls at the CME reemerge. 

    Packers appeared to have been short bought the past few weeks as last week's 115.00 price was posted on Wednesday. Fed cattle trading so far this week has been isolated to Kansas live sales at 110.00 and Nebraska dressed sales at 170.00, both 5.00 lower.  Packers continue to push the envelope and slaughter over 610K again this week.Slaughter cow prices typically have a downtrend this time of year and this one is not different.  Market watchers are reporting a considerable amount of cows in the wings ready to go to market, however slaughter cow plants are running at full bore with auction markets having to hold cows at their facilities a longer period than normal.  Usually there is an uptick in cow prices between Christmas and New Year's Day, however with the holidays on Sunday this year many auctions will have sales.  Couple that with the boisterous amount of cows already in the pipeline, the historic price increase in cow prices may not happen this year.  Auction volume included 47 percent weighing over 600 lbs and 38 percent heifers.

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    Stocker Steers:
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    Feeder Steers:
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    Stocker & Feeder Cattle Weekly Receipts:
    Weekly sales of Stocker Calves & Feeder Cattle sold via auctions, direct country sales, and video/Internet sales as reported by the UDSA Market News
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    Five Year Moving Average - Stocker, Feeder, & Slaughter Steers:
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    Cattle Futures: Live and feeder cattle futures ended the day slightly to moderately lower. For the week, February live cattle posted a weekly gain of $1.65 and January feeders posted a weekly gain of $1.35. Bulls have a slight advantage heading into next week, but with nearby futures trading at a discount to this week's mostly $111 cash trade, it's apparent traders believe a near-term cash high has been posted. There could be one more demand push before Christmas to lift the market, but recent beef market action has not been impressive.
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    Selected Auction Reports:
    "Click" on individual.auction links.for complete report
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    Farmers & Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. - Salina KS
    Receipts:  2569    Last Week:  3960    Year Ago:  3925
    Compared to last week: Steers 700-1100 lbs steady to 2.00 higher; 700 lbs and under lower undertone noted. Heifers 750-1000 lbs steady; 750 lbs and under lower undertone noted.

    Tadlock Stockyards - Forest MS...
    Receipts     This week    1,005     Last Week    1,777
    Compared to last week slaughter cows trended 1.00 to 3.00 Lower. Slaughter bulls trended Steady. Feeder steers trended 1.00 to 5.00 Higher. Feeder heifers trended 1.00 to 5.00 Higher. Feeder consisted of 70 percent steers
    and 30 percent heifers.

    Athens Livestock Auction - Athens GA...
    Receipts:  627    Last Week:  794    Year Ago:  1302
    Compared to one week earlier, slaughter cows 1.00 to 5.00 higher, slaughter bulls steady to 1.00 higher, feeder steers and steer calves 2.00 to 5.00 higher,  feeder bulls and bull calves 3.00 to 6.00 higher, feeder heifers steady to 4.00 higher, heifer calves 3.00 to 5.00 higher, replacement cows steady to 3.00 higher.

    Green Forest Livestock Auction - Green Forest AR...
    Cattle Receipts:  1829          Last week:  2773             Last year:  1614
    Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 5.00 lower except the better 750-800lb yearlings 2.00 higher. Feeder heifer steady to 4.00 lower except the better 350-400lbs calves and 700-750lb yearlings 1.00-2.00 higher. Feeder bulls mostly 3.00-6.00 lower. Slaughter cows 2.00-5.00 lower. Slaughter bulls steady to 3.00 lower.

    Cattleman's Livestock Auction - Dalhart, TX
    Cattle and Calves: 1802      Week ago: 3429      Year Ago:  2487
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers and steer and heifer calves steady to 1.00 lower.  Supply included several offerings of value added kinds.  Slaughter cows and bulls weak to 2.00 lower.  Bulk of supply Medium and Large 1-2 350-925 lb feeder steers and heifers.

    Tulia Livestock Auction - Tulia TX
    Receipts:  2541    Last Week:  2257    Year Ago:  1544
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers sold mostly steady to 3.00 higher.  Calves sold with a weak undertone.  Trade was active on good demand despite the freezing temperatures.  Loads of attractive quality yearing steers and heifers available in the offering.

    El Reno Cattle Narrative - El Reno OK
    Receipts:  10,938    Week ago:    10,264    Year ago:  11,707
    Compared to last week, Feeder steers sold 2.00-5.00 lower. Feeder heifers steady to 4.00 lower.   Steer and heifer calves 5.00-8.00 lower.  The Noble Foundations annual Integrity Beef Producers Commingled Calf Sale and all these cattle were flagged Value Added.

    Clovis Livestock Auction - Clovis NM
    Receipts:  4294             Week Ago: 3474            Year Ago: 2227
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers under 500 lbs steady to 1.00 lower; over 500 lbs 1.00-2.00 higher on comparable quotes. Heifers under 600 lbs 3.00-4.00 lower; over 600 lbs 2.00-4.00 lower. Compared to last month, Holstein steers 8.00 higher on very limited receipts. Slaughter cows and bulls unevenly steady.  Trade active, demand moderate to good.  Bulk supply Medium and Large 1-2 300-800 lb feeder steers and heifers.

    Pratt Livestock Feeder Cattle Auction - Pratt, KS
    Receipts:   2388  Last Week: 3557  Year Ago: 4290
    Compared to last week: Feeder steers 700-850 lbs firm to 3.50 higher; 850-1000 lbs 2.00-3.00 lower. Feeder heifers not enough Medium and Large 1 for a true market test, however a lower undertone noted. Steers and heifer calves not enough Medium and Large 1 for a market test, a lower undertone noted. Trade moderate and demand light.

    Toppenish, WA Livestock Auction - Toppenish WA
    Receipts:  1500    Last Week:  1900    Year Ago:  1600
    Compared to last Thursday at the same market, stocker and feeder steers steady to 4.00 lower. Stocker and feeder heifers steady to 1.00 higher. Trade active with good demand from both local and internet buyers. Slaughter cows 3.00-4.00 lower. Slaughter bulls steady. Trade active with moderate demand.

    Tri-State Livestock Auction Market - McCook NE
    Receipts:  1850    Last Week:  1500    Year Ago:  3050
    Compared to last week, steers and heifers were steady – 4.00 higher. Demand was good on everything offered today. Steers accounted for 61 percent and heifers 39 percent of the offering today.

    Sioux Falls Regional Livestock - Worthing SD
    Receipts:  4052    Last Week:  2677    Year Ago:  3154
    Compared to last week:  Steer calves 500-550 lbs steady to 5.00 lower, 550-600 lbs sharply lower, 600-650 lbs 5.00 to 10.00 lower, 650-700 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 lower.  Yearling steers were of different weights than last week, with best comparison 750-800 lbs 3.00 to 4.00 lower.  Heifer calves 500-700 lbs mostly steady to 5.00 lower.  Yearling heifers lightly tested last week, best test 850-950 lbs steady to 2.00 higher.  Demand good for large offering of calves.  Good to very good demand for yearlings

    Mid-South Livestock - Unionville TN...
    Cattle Receipts: 1067       Last week: 1187        Last year: 1534
    Compared to last week, Feeder Steers/Bulls below 600 lbs. steady to 4.00 higher, over 600 lbs. 3.00-6.00 lower; Feeder Heifers below 600 Lbs. steady to 4.00 higher, over 600 lbs. 3.00-4.00 lower; Slaughter Cows mostly steady; Slaughter Bulls 2.00-3.00 lower.

    Florence Livestock Auction - Florence AL...
    Receipts:  713    Last Week:  1768    Year Ago:  1176
    Compared to a week ago: No trends available, market not reported last week. Slaughter cows 8 percent, bulls 1 percent, replacement cows and pairs 8 percent, and feeders 83 percent.

    Blue Grass South Livestock Market - Stanford KY...
    Receipts:  1400    Last Week:  1359    Year Ago:  901
    Compared to last Monday:Feeder steers and heifers steady to 2.00 lower,Moderate to good demand for feeder classes.Slaughter cows and bulls 2.00-4.00 lower,Moderate demand for slaughter classes.

    Oklahoma National Stockyards - Oklahoma City OK
    Actual Receipts:  8,797     Week ago:  7,946    Year ago:  11,852
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers were steady to 5.00 lower, feeder heifers 2.00-3.00 lower.  Steer calves sold steady to 3.00 lower with heifer calves selling 2.00-6.00 lower.  Quality mostly plain to average.  Demand moderate to light as a result of lower quality cattle compared to last week's offerings.

    Joplin Regional Stockyards - Carthage MO
    Receipts:  9,376     Week ago:   6,713    Year ago:  9,943
    ***CLOSE*** Compared to last week, steer calves under 500 lbs steady to 5.00 higher, over 500 lbs 2.00 to 5.00 lower, yearling steers 3.00 to 5.00 lower, except over 800 lbs steady,  heifer calves under 450 lbs steady, over 450 lbs and yearlings heifers 2.00 to 3.00 lower.

    Valentine Livestock Auction Market - Valentine NE
    Cattle Receipts:  2030 Last week: 3650 Last year: 0
    The Special Bred Female Sale consisted of black, bwf and red offerings bred to black and red bulls calving Feb to March.   a large crowd on hand with very cold weather in the area. Offerings of Video AI and bull bred heifers sold with delivery Dec 9-15th with average weights of 900 to 1075 lbs $1325.00-$1610.00.

    Huss Platte Valley Auction - Kearney NE
    Receipts:  4455    Last Week:  4951    Year Ago:  5500
    Compared to last week, steers sold unevenly and heifers sold 3.00 to 6.00 higher. Demand was good from start to finish with the sale getting a tick stronger at the close. Most offerings were longtime weaned with a few bawling calves in the mix.

    Mitchell Livestock Wtd Avg Report - Mitchell SD
    Receipts:  6611    Last Week:  5117    Year Ago:  6952
    Compared to last week:  Steers calves mostly steady to 5.00 lower, with istances to 7.00 lower on 550-600 lbs.  Yearling steers steady to 5.00 lower.  Heifer calves 500-550 lbs 3.00 to 6.00 higher, 550-600 and 650-700 lbs unevenly steady, 600-650 lbs 1.00 to 3.00 lower.
    Yearling heifers narrowly compared, steady to weak undertones noted.

    Winter Livestock - La Junta CO...
    Receipts:  7252    Last Week:  2909    Year Ago:  6085
    Compared with last Tuesday: steer calves under 600 lbs traded unevenly steady on comparable trades.  Steers over 600 pounds traded mostly steady with weights over 700 pounds trading 2.00 to 3.00 higher.  Heifer calves under 400 lbs traded sharply higher on a comparable trades.

    Cullman Stockyard - Cullman AL...
    Receipts:  1406    Last Week:  1169    Year Ago:  2100
    Compared to last week: Slaughter cows sold 2.00 to 3.00 lower, slaughter bulls sold 1.00 to 3.00 lower. Feeder bulls and steers sold steady. Feeder heifers sold 2.00 to 3.00 lower. Replacement cows and pairs sold mostly steady.

    Russell Wtd Avg Feeder Cattle Auction - Russell IA
    Receipts:  2229    Last Week:  3497    Year Ago:  2804
    Compared to the sale last week: Feeder strs under 500 lbs. mostly 4.00-6.00 higher, feeder strs over 500 lbs. mostly steady. Feeder hfrs mostly steady to 1.00-2.00 higher.

    Denison Wtd Avg Feeder Cattle Auction - Denison IA
    Receipts:  2219    Last Week:  1792
    Compared to last week's Preconditon sale Steers 550 to 800 lbs were 3 to 7 lower. Heifers 500 to 700 lbs were 3 to 5 lower. The receipts included 49 percent steers, 49 percent heifers and 2 percent bulls. Cattle weighing over 600 lbs was 55 percent.

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    Direct Sales of Feeder & Stocker Cattle:
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    WY, Western NE & Western Dakotas Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
    Receipts: 400     Week Ago:  962     Year Ago:  334 
    No comparable sales from last week for an adequate market comparison.

    AZ-CA-NV Weekly Feeder Cattle Review (Fri)
    Confirmed: 1762 
    Compared to, last week, Trade slow, demand light.  A few loads of 325 lb Holstein steers for April delivery traded.  Heifers totaled 0% of supply.

    Colorado Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
    Receipts: 2,642        Last Week 1,916        Last Year 446 
    Compared to last week:  Bulk of the cattle traded on a delivered basis, no trend available on an FOB basis

    IA-South MN Direct Feeder Cattle Weekly (Mon)
    Receipts:  345     Last Week:  345     Last Year:  145
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers not established Due to last week’s limited receipts.  Prices based on net weights FOB after a 3 percent shrink or equivalent and 5-10 cent slide on calves and 4-6 cent slide on yearlings from base weights.

    Kansas Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
    Receipts:  1385    Last Week:  2545    Year Ago:  3338
    Compared with last week: Feeder steers and heifers in a limited supply of Medium and Large 1 steady.  Sales confirmed on 1101 steers, 284 heifers and no calves for a total of 1385 head, compared with 2545 head last week and 3338 last year.

    Montana Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
    Receipts: 0      Last Week: 0           Last Year: 0 
    Compared to last week: Feeder cattle movement very slow this last month of the year.  No trends available for feeder steers and heifers.  Unless otherwise stated prices are FOB weigh point with a 2-3 percent shrink or equivalent and with a 8-12 cent slide on calves and 4-8 cent slide on yearlings from base weights.

    New Mexico Feeder Cattle Report (Mon)
    Receipts:  1200    Last Week:  3200    Year Ago:  2900
    Compared to last week:  Not enough comparable sales of feeder steers or heifers for a market trend.  Trade activity was light to moderate on moderate demand.  Supply consisted of 82 percent steers and 18 percent heifers.  Approximately 88 percent of the offering weighed over 600 lbs.

    Northwest Wtd Avg Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
    Receipts:  2050    Last Week:  2300    Year Ago:  2500
    Compared to last Friday, stocker and feeder cattle firm in a light test. Trade slow with good demand especially as local feedlots decided to own some inventory. The feeder supply included 49 percent steers and 51 percent heifers.

    Oklahoma Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
    Receipts: 5,657        Last Week 1,600        Last Year 969 
    Compared to last week:  No trend available for feeder steers and heifers due to limited Current FOB trades.  Wheat pasture looks pretty good in central Oklahoma and this has farmers actively looking for stocker cattle.

    Texas Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
    Confirmed: 27,500     Last Week: 22,600    Last Year: 4,000
    Compared to last week current FOB feeder steers and heifers, 1.00 to 6.00 higher on the post-holiday week as sales activity improved after Thanksgiving.  Recent increases in the finished cattle trade improved optimism, CME risk protection, and feeder cattle prices.

    Extensive U.S. & Canadian Auction Results are available on The Cattle Range

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    Representative Sales of Cow & Pairs:
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    Reported by.USDA Market News for the week ending December 9th
     
    • Video:
      • Bred Stock: Medium and Large 1 North Central Medium and Large 1 North Central Current delivery 1300 lbs 2nd trimester 1335.00-1350.00; South Central Medium and Large 1 Broken Mouth 1100 lbs 3rd trimester 875.00.
    • Oklahoma City, OK:
      • Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2  1-4 yr old 925-1400 lbs 4-7 months bred 1200.00-1575.00; 1-6 yr old 875-1400 lbs 2-7 months bred 800.00-1175.00; 7-10 yr old 1025-1450 lbs 2-7 months 650.00-1035.00. 
      • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2 pkg 2 yr old 1025 lb cow w/75 lb calf black 1675.00; 2-5 yr old 875-1300 lb cow w/75-200 lb calf 975.00-1350.00; 9 yr old 1125-1400 lb cow w/100-150 lb calf 850.00-1150.00.
    • Woodward, OK:
      • Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 pkg Heifers 1175 lbs 5-7 months bred black 1575.00; Heifers 825-900 lbs 4-6 months bred black 975.00-1160.00; 3-6 yr old 1150-1475 lbs 5-7 months bred black 1375.00-1600.00; 8-10+ yr old 1125-11375 lbs 2-7 months bred black 710.00-925.00; 10+ yr old 1150-1350 lbs 3-7 months bred 710.00-885.00.
    • El Reno, OK:
      • Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2  5-6 yr old 1275-1425 lbs 6-8 months bred black 1225.00-1300.00; 1-6 yr old 1150-1425 lbs 2-8 months bred 700.00-1200.00; 7-10 yr old 1100-1425 lbs 3-7 months bred 690.00-1100.00 per head. 
      • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  5-7 yr old 1275-1450 lb cow w/75-200 lb calf 1300.00-1550.00 per pair.
    • McAlester, OK:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  1-4 yr old 800-1200 lbs 4-6 months bred 900.00-1300.00; 5-6 yr old 1100-1525 lbs 4-6 months bred 1010.00-1320.00; 7-10 yr old 975-1325 lbs 6-8 months bred 875.00-1150.00. 
      • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  9-10 yr old 900-1200 lb cow w/85-275 lb calf 860.00-1075.00
    • Roswell, NM:
      • Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2:  Young 810-1500 lb cows 3-8 months bred 1000.00-1610.00, per head; middle aged 855-1364 lb cows 3-8 months bred 650.00-1500.00, per head; aged 995-1580 lb cows 3-8 months bred 650.00-1175.00, per head.  First Calf Heifers:  725-915 lb cows 3-8 months bred 825.00-1100.00, per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2:  Young 925-1320 lb cows w/100-300 lb calves 1185.00-1725.00, per pair; middle aged 925-1290 lb cows w/100-250 lb calves 900.00-1435.00, per pair; pkg aged 1225 lb cows w/200-250 lb calves 1125.00, per pair.
    • Springfield, MO:
      • Bred Cows: Medium and Large 1-2  2-6 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 1065-1370 lbs 960.00-1225.00, 1st stage 1145-1225 lbs 1000.00-1100.00, few 1 1/2 yrs 1st stage 855-915 lbs 885.00-950.00; 7 yrs to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1095-1365 lbs 600.00-900.00. Large 1-2  4-5 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 1460-1575 lbs 1100.00-1325.00; 7 yrs to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1385-1885 lbs 700.00-960.00. Medium and Large 2  4-6 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 1040-1165 lbs 710.00-875.00. Medium 1-2  2-6 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 875-1065 lbs 775.00-900.00; 7 yrs to aged most 2nd few 3rd stage 895-1030 lbs 560.00-650.00 per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-5 yrs 1140-1320 lb cows w/babies to 395 lb calves 1200.00-1400.00; short and solid mouth to aged 1170-1325 lb cows w/155-320 lb calves 985.00-1050.00. Large 1-2  4-6 yrs pkg. 1410 lb cows w/170-300 lb calves 1475.00; short and solid mouth 1395 lb cow w/145 lb calf 950.00. Medium and Large 2  2 yrs to short and solid mouth 1030-1200 lb cows w/babies to 320 lb calves 800.00-1000.00 per pair.
    • West Plains, MO:
      • Bred Cows: Medium and Large 1-2  2-7 yr old 940-1595 lb cows in the 2nd-3rd stage 1000.00-1300.00 per head, 1st stage 975.00-1100.00 per head; Short-solid to broken mouth 1310-1480 lb cows in the 2nd-3rd stage 825.00-1000.00 per head.  Medium and Large 2  2-7 yr old 740-1465 lb cows in the 2nd-3rd stage 650.00-1050.00 per head; Short-solid to broken mouth 940-1505 lb cows in the 2nd-3rd stage 625.00-875.00 per head.  Medium 2  2 yr to short-solid mouth 655-1135 lb cows in the 2nd-3rd stage 400.00-800.00 per head. 
      • Cow-Calf Pairs:  Few Medium and Large 1-2  4-7 yr old 1035-1340 lb cows with 100-300 lb calves 1200.000-1600.00 per pair; Short-solid to broken mouth 985-1415 lb cows with 150-300 lb calves 1000.00-1300.00 per pair.  Medium and Large 2  4-7 yr old 780-1255 lb cows with 100-200 lb calves 875.00-1175.00 per pair.  Medium 2  Short-solid to broken mouth 705-1015 lb cows with 100-125 lb calves 650.00-950.00 per pair. 
    • Joplin, MO:
      • Bred Cows: Medium and Large 1-2  2 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 975-1365 lbs 1000.00-1350.00, 1st stage 925-1200 lbs 885.00-1025.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1075-1360 lbs 590.00-950.00. Large 1-2  2-7 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 1375-1510 lbs 1110.00-1375.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd stage 1390-1560 lbs 695.00-895.00. Medium and Large 2  2-5 yrs 3rd stage couple pkgs. 1000-1070 lbs 975.00; broken mouth 3rd stage 1100 lb indiv. 630.00. Medium 1-2  2-7 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 770-1040 lbs 750.00-1075.00, 1st stage 780-925 lbs 850.00-885.00; broken mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 965-1040 lbs 530.00-675.00 per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1  4-6 yrs pkg. 1270 lb cows w/150-160 lb calves 1750.00. Medium and Large 1-2  2 yrs to short and solid mouth 1065-1250 lb cows w/babies to 165 lb calves 1200.00-1550.00. Medium 1-2  3 yr 1060 lb cow w/165 lb calf 975.00 per pair.
    • Valentine, NE:
      • Spring Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2 AI’d Heifers 926-990 lbs $1475.00-$1575.00, 1000-1065 lbs $1500.00-$1880.00, 1106-1145 lbs $1750.00-$2020.00.  Bull Bred Heifers: 883 lbs $1275.00, 944-997 lbs $1400.00-$1510.00, 1008-1076 lbs $1350.00-$1750.00, 1167 lbs $1570.00 per head. Young Dispersions:  1030-1053 lbs $1550.00-$1750.00, 1125-1171 lbs $1575.00-$1820.00, 1235-1278 lbs $1500.00-$1610.00 Young: 1148-1247 lbs $1260.00-$1385.00 per head.  Solid Mouth Dispersions: 1233-1255 lbs $1425.00-$1550.00, 1302-1384 lbs $1375.00-$1550, 1416-1429 lbs $1500.00-$1510.00 per head.  Solid Mouth:  1391-1392 lbs $1150.00-$1200.00, 1416-1485 lbs $1300.00-$1460.00, 1515 lbs $1510.00 per head.  Short Solid:  1246-1476 lbs $940.00-$1175.00, 1575-1585 lbs $1100.00-$1400 per head.  Broken Mouth:  1201-1482 lbs $840.00-$1075.00, 1524-1552 lbs $1100.00-$1280.00 per head.  Late Bred (Mix Aged) 1491-1500 lbs $1150.00-$1350.00, 1858 lbs $975.00 per head. 
    • Billings, MT:
      • Bred cows: 3-4 yrs old Medium and large 1 calving after May 15th pkg 1093 lbs 1,150.00 per head.  3-6 yrs old Medium and large 1 calving before May 15th few 1200-1260 lbs 1,300.00, calving after May 15th few 1105-1220 lbs 1,100.00-1,175.00.  Middle age (Solid mouth) Medium and large 1 calving before May 15th few 1290-1360 lbs 860.00-1,125.00 per head.  Aged (Broken mouth) Medium and large 1 calving before May 15th few 1210-1380 lbs 750.00-825.00 per head. 
    • Arkansas:
      • Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2  2-7 year old 850-1250 lbs second & third stage bred 100.00-110.00/1025.00-1125.00/hd; first stage/open 70.00-80.00; 7-10 year old second & third stage bred 67.00-77.00/800.00-900.00/hd. 
      • Cow-Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2  3-7 year old 800-1200 cow w/100-200 lb calf 1175.00-1275.00/pair, few to 1650.00/pair; 7-10 year old cow w/100-200 lb calf 975.00-1075.00/pair. 
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    Canadian Cattle:
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    Alberta Beef Producers: Alberta direct cattle sales so far this week have seen light trade develop. Dressed sales have been reported from 252.00-254.00 delivered. Initial sales are steady to 2.00 higher than the previous week. Live sales have been reported on either side of 150.00. Fed prices are on track to establish new second half highs this week.
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    Canadian Cattle Prices:
    Prices have been converted to U.S. $/CWT. Grades changed to approximate U.S. equivalents
    Exchange Rate: Canadian dollar equivalent to $0.7468 U.S. dollars
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    Prices for the week ending December 2nd:
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    Tire-Changing Ramp for Trailers
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    This week, America Lost a True Hero...
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    "Godspeed, John Glenn"
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    Cattle Markets Wrap Up for 2016
    Derrell S. Peel -- Oklahoma State University Extension 
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    The transition to bigger beef supplies (and psychologically to the idea of bigger supplies) that began impacting cattle markets in 2015 continued in 2016.  Markets adjusted down, including a brutal, fear-driven crash in markets in the third quarter, followed by a significant rally in the fourth quarter.  Fed cattle prices have recovered 12 to 15 percent since mid-October while feeder cattle are up 10 to 12 percent.  Calf prices have increased about 25 percent since the October lows. 

    Feedlots have marketed cattle very aggressively since February resulting in higher than expected slaughter rates.  Steer slaughter has not pulled back so far in the fourth quarter, as expected, and is up 7.2 percent for the year to date compared to last year. Steers on feed in feedlots as of October 1 was down 1.4 percent from one year ago, indicating that feedlots have pulled cattle, especially steers, ahead; thereby tightening future supplies.  As expected, heifer slaughter is up 3.5 percent year over year so far this year with sharply higher heifer slaughter rates in the second half of the year more than offsetting decreased year over year heifer slaughter early in 2016.  Beef cow slaughter is also up as expected this year, with the year to date total up 13.4 percent.  Despite this sharp increase in year over year beef cow slaughter, the 2016 net herd culling rate is projected at less than 8.5 percent, less than average and consistent with modest herd growth for the year.

    Beef production increased more than expected in 2016.  Higher than expected cattle slaughter in 2016 has resulted in projections of annual beef production revised upwards several times during the year to the current estimate of 5.8 percent more beef than 2015.  Average cattle carcass weights have been down year over year since May.  Steer and heifer carcass weights, though down from last year’s record levels, have remained higher than expected this fall due to excellent feeding weather into mid-November.  Carcass weights should fall seasonally in the remaining weeks of the year, particularly as some colder weather impacts are reflected in the data.

    Beef imports are down in 2016 while beef exports are up.  This helps moderate the large increase in beef production this year reducing the supply pressure on the domestic market.  Nevertheless, per capita U.S. beef consumption is increasing in 2016, the first sizeable year over year increase in more than a decade.  Per capita beef consumption is projected at 55.5 pounds in 2016, up 2.6 percent from one year ago. Pork and poultry production and consumption are up as well in 2016, adding to the total meat supply pressure in beef markets.  Retail beef prices in October were 7.5-8 percent below year earlier levels while retail pork prices were down nearly 6 percent and broiler prices were down nearly 4 percent year over year.  Record cold storage inventories in October are indicative of the supply challenges for beef markets but, in general, it appears that the unexpectedly large beef supplies in 2016 have moved through retail grocery, HRI (hotel, restaurant and institution), and export market channels fairly smoothly this year. Additional beef production is expected in 2017 but with a smaller increase than in 2016. Growing cattle inventories and beef supplies resulted in more cattle and beef market transition and a fair amount of heartburn along the way but most of the transition appears to be complete as 2016 wraps up.

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    Quick Service Restaurant Visits Declined for the First Time in Five Years
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    A confluence of squeezed consumer wallets, the rising cost of dining out, and changing needs and wants has brought the U.S. restaurant industry traffic growth to a halt in the first two quarters of 2016 and into the negative in the third quarter, reports The NPD Group, the leading global information company.  Total foodservice visits declined by 1 percent in the third quarter compared to same quarter last year, and quick service restaurant traffic, which represents 80 percent of total industry visits, dropped for the first time in five years, according to NPD’s ongoing foodservice market research.

    “The term growing your business in a ‘one percent world’ has become a popular mantra for the restaurant industry after six consecutive years of annual traffic gains of just one percent,” says Bonnie Riggs, restaurant industry analyst at NPD. “However, over the past six months restaurant industry traffic growth has come to a standstill and quick service restaurants, which have been the traffic growth drivers, are now experiencing a slowdown in visits.” 

    Riggs, who recently authored a report entitled, Losing Our Appetites for Restaurants, points out that there are multiple reasons why consumers have pulled back on visiting restaurants and chief among them is cost.  She states in her report that rising healthcare costs and/or student debt have reduced the amount of disposable income consumers have in their wallets.  According to a survey of the longitudinal panelists participating in NPD’s receipt mining service, Checkout Trackingsm, 75 percent of the respondents who have decreased their visits to restaurants say they watch how they spend their money on most or all purchases, and a high percentage of these respondents think that restaurant prices are too high. The fact is the cost of the average restaurant meal has risen 21 percent over the last decade  and with lower grocery prices the price gap between eating at home and dining out is widening. Eighty-two percent of all meals are now consumed in-home. 

    “The marketplace is changing and despite improving economic indicators, the consumer landscape is fundamentally reshaped,” says Riggs.  “What hasn’t changed and won’t change is the consumer’s need for foodservice; it saves them time and provides them with an experience.  Restaurant operators will need to look for ways to differentiate themselves from the competition.  They will need to find the means to stay relevant in consumers’ minds – innovative products, unique promotions, competitive pricing, stating the benefits of eating at restaurants compared to home – while delivering an enjoyable experience.”

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    USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates
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    WASDE: More Meat, Despite Less Pork

    The 2016 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher forecast beef production offsets lower poultry and pork production.

    • Beef production is raised on the current pace of slaughter.
    • Pork production is lowered due to counter-seasonally lighter-than-expected carcass weights this quarter.
    • Broiler and turkey production is forecast lower, largely reflecting the slower pace of slaughter in the fourth quarter.
    For 2017, pork and broiler production forecasts are unchanged from the previous month, but beef and turkey production forecasts are lowered.

    USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on December 23 which will provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions into the first part of 2017.

    Beef production is forecast lower, reflecting lower expectations for cattle placements in late 2016. However, the ensuing decline in fed cattle slaughter will be slightly offset by higher expected cow slaughter.

    The turkey production forecast is lowered from the previous month as a slower pace of slaughter is expected in the second half of the year. Egg production is forecast higher for both 2016 and early 2017.

    The beef import forecast is raised for 2016 based on the recent pace of trade, but is unchanged for 2017. Beef exports are raised for 2016, reflecting stronger export demand, but are unchanged for 2017.

    Pork imports are lowered for 2016 and 2017 on recent trade data and the expected impact of forecast growth in production on import demand. Forecast pork exports for 2017 are unchanged.

    Broiler and turkey export forecasts are unchanged for 2016 and 2017.

    Cattle prices are forecast higher for the remainder of 2016 and through the first half of 2017 as demand has improved and is expected to carry into early 2017.

    Hog prices are unchanged. Broiler prices are raised for 2016 and 2017 on recent price strength.

    Turkey prices are lowered in 2016 and 2017 on weaker-than-expected demand. For 2016, egg prices are lowered reflecting current price data, but the price forecast for 2017 is unchanged.

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    USDA National Retail Beef Report:
    Advertised Prices for Beef at Major Retail Supermarket Outlets
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    This week in beef retail, comparted to last week the Feature Rate saw a 15.2 percent decrease, the Special Rate posted a 2.2 percent decrease, and the Activity Index charted 12.8 percent decrease. This week there is an significant increase in Tenderloins as retailers are catering to consumers planning for the upcoming holidays. Cuts from the Rib and Loin saw more ad space while cuts from the Chuck, Round, and Brisket saw less. The cattle slaughter under federal inspection saw a .8 percent decrease when compared to last week.
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    October Meat Trade
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    U.S. meat trade volumes in international markets during October came in close to expectations. In the case of all primary meats (beef, pork, chicken and turkey) produced in the U.S. , percentage gains in exports for the most recent reported month exceeded year-to-date percentage gains. The accelerating pace in exports provides encouragement for additional gains in 2017.

    Beef imports were down 5% from a year ago during October, one of the smaller declines of the year. Shipments from Australia continue to be off sharply (-52%) in October. In just three months, from July to October, 90% lean trimmings prices from Australia went from a three cent discount to US 90% lean trim to a 20 cent premium per pound due to the lack of supply from this source. Some of the decline in beef from Australia is being offset by increases from other countries, such as Canada and Mexico. Shipments from Canada were up 15 million pounds and Mexico shipments were up 19 million pounds. This compares with a 46 million pound decline from Australia. Brazil, which was recently authorized to send fresh beef to the US upped shipments by three million pounds from
    October 2015.

    Pork exports are on track to hit an annual forecast of a 2% gain from last year. The 9% increase registered in October will be difficult to duplicate or exceed in November or December as exports were trending higher in those months in 2015 relative to October. Holding pork exports steady at 450 million pounds in November and December would put the annual pork export tally close to the current forecast of 5.079 billion pounds. The bulk of the gain in pork exports this year will be accounted for by China, as they are on course to take more than 200 million more pounds of pork than a year ago, and the highest volume since 2013. In percentage terms, exports to China should be up more than 90% this year. This will help to offset declining exports to Japan and South Korea.

    Chicken export trends are following a similar path to pork, with increases compared to a year ago skewed to the second half of the year. An 8% increase in shipments from a year ago during October was highlighted by an 85% jump in product moving to Angola and a 97% jump in exports to Iraq. Both of these markets have been developing nicely for the US chicken industry in recent years, but sales had been disappointing so far this year, prior to October. Mexico, which is the biggest foreign destination for US chicken continues to be a problem, with October shipments of US chicken down 18% from last year. At the current sales pace, shipments of chicken to Mexico will be down 5% this year compared to 2015.

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    Photo of the Week:
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  • 425 Angus Bred Heifers... TX Panhandle*.
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    Shootin' the Bull Weekly Analysis:
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    In my opinion, this week's action in the cattle market was perceived as the packers pulling out all the stops in an attempt to slow the price advance, while emboldened producers attempted to thwart the packers intentions.  The subtle changes appear recognized by most. However, there remains analyst looking for new contract lows.  While I have no way to discredit their analysis, mine suggests that the inventory on feed, reduction of overweight animals, and winter coming on does not make for a very bearish picture.  Technical indicators topped with the price.  What is anticipated now is another rally to a new high, but not a new high in the technical indicators. This divergence, if materializes, will be the first clue that the rally is running out of steam.  Until then, my analysis suggests to anticipate the February contract moving north towards the $117.50 target.  The live cattle contract has grown significantly in open interest the past several weeks.  The new found interest at the higher price remains encouraging as it is thought that a great deal of the selling is due to lender pressure and not anticipation of a lower trade.  The increase in open interest is perceived fund buying and potentially a hidden grub stake some may have had for an emergency.  Either way, it appears that the battle lines drawn are much more equal than they have been in the past.  If packers begin losing more margin, it is possible they switch from attempting to brow beat the market, to playing catch up using futures.

    Feeder cattle are perceived coat tailing the fats.  They are anticipated to continue to ride along as there is nothing bullish about feeder cattle.  I've remained overly cautious about being long feeders and instead chose to use the current strength to begin laying off risk.  If you recall, I recommended laying off 1/3 of inventory if the September 22nd high was met per respective contract month in the spring contracts.  Last week, the spring months met the first target.  The next price of interest will be around the $130.00 level for the spring months.  If that objective is met, then the remaining 1/3 of inventory will be speculated on, or potentially a cash forward will be made available to complete this springs sales.  Because there is not much bullish about the feeders, and spring inventory anticipated heavy, this is about the only way I know of to approach sales.  Averaging up may or may not be beneficial, but I am all ears for any better approach. 

    Corn continues to wallow with intermittent periods of meandering.  Beans however continue to frolic higher.  Even with the known size of this years crop, beans, and the products, continue to push higher.  This week, bean oil set a new contract high.  I could not find any other commodity near a contract high.  Bean meal is anticipated to continue to be in demand due to the continual increases in livestock production world wide.  Seemingly when a country is having difficulty in production, another country is right there to take up the slack.  So, for the time being, I continue to anticipate corn to wallow and beans/products move higher.

    While I may be completely off base, it appears that producers have an opportunity at hand.  My analysis suggests that the decline from August to contract low was mechanical and methodical to rectify a growing situation.  That situation was too heavy cattle.  Through the year, packers have continued with elevated kills from what was anticipated at the start of the year.  Prices continued to move lower, but not too badly considering the basis was so wide already that no specific futures month had nearly as much action as did the cash market.  Up to August, it appeared that the work done was paying off.  When recognition of growing heavier animals was upon us, traders punished the market.   Now that the heavy numbers are moving out, and sheer numbers set through the remainder of winter, producers are perceived to have an opportunity at hand. That opportunity is the reduction of kill weights.  I have no idea how to go about this, but if there were some guidelines established to keep the weight off cattle, whether retained ownership, farmer/feeder, or commercial yards, the reduction in total beef production would be anticipated to fetch a higher price. Now, I fully understand that pounds are dollars.  However, we have seen that when there is too much product, those pounds are worth cents and not dollars. 

    A good visual of the beef industry is an hour glass.  The top bell is production from birth to slaughter.  The neck line is the packing industry and bottom bell is wholesale and retail product.  As best I can figure, packers are not slated to increase the width of the neck to allow more cattle to flow down to the consumer anytime soon.  Maybe even years.  With growing numbers, it appears that the only leverage the producer has is going to be a reduction in kill weight or an increase in consumer demand.  With consumer demand perceived as good at present, a small weight reduction could go along way. The growing divide between eating at home and at a restaurant could make for some interesting trading as well.  With restaurants losing market share, their promotions are anticipated to increase.  As beef remains the number one menu item, this could help.  As hog prices are now showing some strength, the narrowing spread between cattle and hogs would be anticipated to be beneficial towards beef at the grocer's meat counter.  Expansion has been side tracked some now with heavier heifer placements and the drought in the southeast.  While these factors may only slow expansion, these subtle changes appear to be making a difference.  These are just my opinions, but I think you should ask yourself, how does your operation plan on benefiting the industry as a whole? 

    Christopher B. Swift is a commodity broker and consultant with Swift Trading Company in Nashville, TN. Mr. Swift authors the daily commentaries "mid day cattle comment" and "Shootin' the Bull" commentary found on his website @ www.shootinthebull.com

    An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits.  You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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    Meat Supplies & the Holidays
    CME Group
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    With Thanksgiving behind us and Christmas just a few weeks from now, retailers and food service operators have a bevy of proteins to pick from and feature into the holidays.  Robust export demand, a much improved employment picture and the end of a contentious election season so far appear to have positively contributed to demand for most proteins. 

    If we make some conservative estimates about production numbers for poultry last week, combined protein supplies last week were over 1.9 billion pounds,  93 million pounds  (+5.1%) higher than a year ago.  And last week was not an aberration.  For the last six weeks, weekly red meat and poultry production has averaged 1.865 billion pounds, +5.3% higher than last year.  All proteins have contributed to the surge in supplies but beef has by far provided the largest growth in total pounds. 

    Beef production in the last six weeks has averaged 508 million pounds/week, 49 million pounds (+11%) more than a year ago.  Beef production has been constrained for so many years and retailers have been forced to raise prices in order to ration out demand.  The increase in supply has provided opportunities to once again feature beef but the challenge is that demand is not distributed evenly. 

    Going into the holiday demand for beef ribs has been excellent  and some other cuts also have performed quite well, allowing packers to run slaughter quite aggressively, matching the levels we saw in 2013 (see steer/heifer slaughter chart).  But some of the round cuts have not fared quite as well, in part because they have to compete not just with regular holiday items but also very inexpensive pork and chicken.  Fat beef trimmings received a bit of a boost from pre-holiday party manufacturer buys and some food service promos but have slumped in recent days given the sheer amount of product not just in the fresh market but also sitting in freezers. 

    For now, holidays have offered much needed support  to clean up  the beef market but we  think some product continue  to flow into refrigerated storage.  And this could limit demand going into Q1, especially as consumers tend to become a bit more frugal in their spending after  the  holiday splurge.   Fed cattle futures reflected some of this uneasiness on Friday, selling off quite aggressively and breaking through some key support levels. 

    Chicken and pork production also have bolstered the total supply of protein, but the growth rate has been a bit more modest than beef.  Pork production in the last six reported weeks has averaged 514 million pounds/wk, 19 million pounds (+4%) more than a year ago.  Last week pork production was an all time  record  537 million pounds,  3.5% more than a year ago.  As with beef, some items have performed better than others.  Hams have benefited from both holiday demand and exports, with prices up 20% despite the surge in supply. 

    What happens with the ham market two weeks from now is certainly a source of worry for packers and producers.  Seasonally hog slaughter drifts lower into the spring but traditionally hog numbers remain large through January and it appears there will be a lot of competition for inexpensive protein in the retail meat counter.  Total chicken production in the last six weeks has averaged 733 million pounds, 21 million pounds (+3%).  Leg quarters are up 40% from last year on robust exports and wings are the perennial favorite at this time of year.  Breast meat is languishing. 

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    U.S. Dollar - 6 Month Chart:
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    Over the last 5 years, an average of around 10% of U.S. beef production has been exported, making exports an extremely important factor affecting beef and cattle prices.  A strong dollar depresses export demand.
  • U.S. Dollar Index
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    Choice Boxed Beef Cutout, Slaughter, & Feeder Steers:
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    The average value of hide and offal for the five days ending Fri, Dec 09, 2016   was estimated at 11.71 per cwt., down 0.06 from last week and  up 0.74 from last year.
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    British Farmer Whose Cows Trampled Man to Death Gets Suspended Sentence
    The Guardian
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    Mike Porter was killed while out walking dogs on a public footpath through one of Brian Godwin’s fields in Wiltshire, England.

    A farmer who was warned repeatedly over the course of more than a decade to improve safety on his land has been spared jail after a retired university professor was trampled to death by cows at the farm.

    Mike Porter died after being trampled by the herd while he and his brother John walked their two dogs on a public footpath through one of Brian Godwin’s fields. John Porter was also injured but survived.

    After previous incidents in which people were injured by cattle on his farm, health officials had told Godwin to put in segregating fencing or signs saying “cows with calves” to let people know the protective animals were dangerous, a court heard.

    But sentencing him on Monday after Godwin admitted at a previous hearing to breaching his general duty to control his livestock, the judge said he had “quite blatantly failed to ensure the safety of people who came on your land”.

    Tim Mousley QC, sitting at Swindon crown court, said: “You could have prevented his [Mike Porter’s] untimely death.” He handed Godwin a 12-month prison sentence, suspended for two years. The judge said Godwin would have to pay £30,000, which would be covered by insurance.

    In May 2013 the Porter brothers had been rambling with their dogs, who were leashed, through a field on Godwin’s 400-acre farm near Bradford on Avon in Wiltshire.

    About 30 “highly excited, jostling” continental beef cattle surrounded them and repeatedly trampled on Mike Porter, who curled up in a ball to protect himself. John Porter told an inquest into his brother’s death that the herd knocked them down repeatedly and seemed to deliberately trample on them “as if it was something they really wanted to do”.

    Mike Porter, who was a father of two, managed to scramble out of the field but collapsed later and was airlifted to hospital. He later died from internal bleeding.

    On Monday the judge told Godwin: “I’m quite satisfied that the way you managed your livestock created an obvious risk to people on public footpaths and a risk of serious injury. That was a risk that you failed to take reasonable steps to rectify and led to the terrible death of one man and serious injuries to another.

    “There was an incident in 2004, two incidents in 2008 after which the health and safety executive required you to make some changes. Two further incidents in 2011 after which the health and safety executive required you to make further changes.

    “It must have been clear at that stage, the warning signs were obvious. By May 2013, you were aware of all the previous incidents. You had made some improvements to farming practice. But what you did obviously was not enough. I’m satisfied you could have done more and you say you now realise that you could.

    “Simply the expedient of installing a fence that would not have provided 100% safety but certainly would have reduced the risk. Mike Porter, by everyone’s account, was a devoted family man. He knew the importance of his family and their loss is immeasurable.”

    In a statement issued after the hearing, Mike Porter’s family said they hoped lessons would be learned to help make the countryside safer for walkers.

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    Feeder Steers/Corn Correlation:
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    Over the years, the value of 25 bushels of corn has been approximately equal to the price per cwt. for feeder steers.
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    Slaughter Cows & Bulls:
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    Slaughter cows and bulls steady to 4.00 higher, except Alabama 1.00 to 3.00 higher. 

    Cutter Cow Carcass Cut-Out Value Friday was 153.82 -- Down 0.22 from last Friday. 

                       Weight         Colorado         Oklahoma        Alabama 
    Breakers  1100-1600   58.00-58.50    54.00-57.00     47.00-51.00
    Boners      1000-1450   58.00-62.00    55.00-58.00    51.00-56.00
    Lean         1000-1300    56.00-59.00    54.00-59.00    45.00-50.00
    Bulls          1300-2500   70.00-76.50    73.00-77.00     65.00-70.00

                         # Head  Week Ago  Year Ago      YTD       Year Ago
    National        7,991       9,664         8,862        41,993      42,816
    S Central      2,307       2,419         2,182        12,054      10,575
    N Central         389          592          1,320          3,108        4,599
    East              2,100       2,568          1,985        10,388        9,930
    West             1,513       2,035           2,007         7,242        9,864
    Midwest        1,682       2,050         1,368          9,201        7,848


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    Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection:
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    Total red meat production under Federal inspection for the week ending Saturday, December 10, 2016 was estimated at 1035.4 million lbs. according to the U.S.Department of Agriculture's Marketing Service. This was 2.1 percent lower than a week ago and 2.5 percent higher than a year ago.  Cumulative meat production for the year to date was 3.3 percent higher compared to the previous year.
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    Weekly Hay Reports: "Click" on links for detailed report
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    Weekly Feedstuffs Market Review:
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    The USDA Market News Service reports feed ingredient prices for the week ending December 06, 2016 were mixed. 
    • Soybean Meal was mostly steady to 3.80 lower. Cottonseed Meal was mixed, 15.00 lower to 10.00 higher.   Canola Meal was steady to 5.20 higher. Linseed Meal was steady to 10.00 lower. Sunflower Meal was steady to 5.00 higher. 
    • Whole Cottonseed was stead to 5.00 higher.
    • Crude Soybean Oil was 120 to 176 points higher. Crude Corn Oil was 80 points higher. 
    • Ruminant Meat and Bone Meal was mixed 35.00 lower to 20.00 higher. Ruminant Blood Meal was mixed, 35.00 lower to 25.00 higher. Feather Meal was 10.00 lower to 15.00 higher, mostly steady to 15.00 higher. Menhaden Fishmeal was steady. 
    • Corn Hominy was steady to 5.00 higher. Gluten Feed was mixed 1.00 lower to 10.00 higher. Corn Gluten Meal was steady to30.00 higher. 
    • Distillers Dried Grain was mixed 5.00 lower to 10.00 higher, mostly steady to 5.00 lower. 
    • Wheat Middling's were steady to 17.00 higher. Wheat millrun was steady to 5.00 lower.
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    Overview of U.S. Cattle Imports From Canada
    Livestock Marketing Information Center
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    To follow up on the previous monitor article, we will review live cattle imports from Canada. Preliminary weekly data are used which are collected by USDA-APHIS and published by USDA-AMS.

    Starting with feeder cattle, year-to-date (through mid-November) the U.S. had imported almost 176,000 head. This is 108,000 fewer head (a 40% decrease) compared to the same time frame in 2015. In 2015, a total of almost 290,000 head of feeder cattle were imported from Canada.  For the last few weeks of 2016, imports are expected to be above a year ago; still the annual total will be down dramatically year-over-year. Those animals eventually are placed into U.S. feedlots.  The Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) forecasts imports will increase in 2017, largely due to the closure of the largest cattle feeding operation in Canada this year as a result of poor returns. 

    The U.S. also imports slaughter steers and heifers from Canada (note that these animals are not included in the marketing number on our monthly Cattle on Feed report as they did not go through a U.S. feed yard). So far in 2016, we have imported just over 280,000 head, up almost 50% from the year ago level.  In 2015 the U.S. imported over 215,000 slaughter steers and heifers from Canada.  Still, imports have been much smaller than a few years ago, largely because the Canadian herd has shrunk. LMIC is expecting imports in 2017 to be similar to 2016’s.

    Additionally, the U.S. imports slaughter cows and bulls from Canada. Year-to-date, through mid-November, a total of almost 221,000 slaughter cows and bulls have been imported, this is down 10% from the year ago total. In 2015, annual slaughter cow and bull imports totaled just over 290,000 head. 

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    Bullish/Bearish Consensus:
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    The theory behind the "Bullish/Bearish Consensus" indicator is when the public reaches a consensus, they are usually wrong:
    • They get too bullish after prices have risen, and too bearish after they have already fallen.
    Because of this tendency, there are often extremes in opinion right before major changes in trend:
    • When the public reaches a bullish extreme, i.e., a great majority thinks prices will keep rising, then prices often decline instead. 
    • And when they become too bearish, then prices tend to rise.
    So when Public Opinion moves above the red dotted line in the chart, it means that compared to other readings over the past year, you're seeing excessive optimism. You also want to look at the absolute level of Opinion, too - if it's at 90%, then there's no question we're seeing an historic level of bullish opinion.  Watch for readings above 80% (or especially 90%) to spot those dangerous times when the public is overly enthusiastic about a commodity.

    Conversely, when Public Opinion moves below the green dotted line, then the public is excessively pessimistic about the commodity's prospects for further gains compared to their opinion over the past year.  Looking for absolute readings under 20% (or especially 10%) often indicates an upturn in the market.

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    Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Cattle
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    Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Corn
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    Stock Markets & Economic News:
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    The post-election rally regained strength in the week, helping to bring all of the major benchmarks to a series of record highs. “Trump trade” continued for much of the week, favoring small-caps over large-caps and lower-priced (relative to earnings) value stocks over faster-growing companies. This pattern was reflected in the strong gain of the small-cap Russell 2000 Index, which ended the week as the best-performing index for the year to date. Remarkably, the Russell 2000 Index, the Nasdaq Composite Index, and the Standard & Poor’s MidCap 400 Index ended the week having more than quadrupled off the lows they set in early 2009.

    Optimism about the incoming administration's plans for fiscal stimulus through reduced taxes and increased infrastructure spending, along with deregulation, seemed to continue to drive sentiment during the week. Technical factors also seemed to be at work, however, as investors who had taken short positions in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index were forced to cover their positions as the benchmark crossed an important threshold (2,225) at midweek.  Conversely, the Italian referendum over the previous weekend and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday -- both of which were expected to have an impact on U.S. markets -- seemed to have been met with a shrug.

    The week’s economic data were generally supportive of sentiment, with positive readings on service sector activity, factory orders, and mortgage applications. The number of job openings fell a bit in October, but this backward look at the labor market was offset somewhat by a drop in the number of jobless claims during the previous week. The number of people seeking unemployment benefits remained at lows not seen since the early 1970s, when the overall labor force was much smaller.

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    Bankers Toughen Loan Terms
    Successful Farming
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    Amid “a growing sense of risk in the farm sector,” bankers across the U.S. are demanding farm real estate as collateral on short-term operating loans, says the Ag Finance Databook compiled by the Kansas City Fed. Real estate provided one third of the collateral on loans of $250,000 or more issued during the summer vs. 10% a year earlier. It was an abrupt reversal of the five-year decline that began during the ag boom.

    Interest on non-real estate loans is shifting higher. Some 85% of loans carry a floating rate, for only the second time since 1977. The average maturity period for loans, for only the third time since 1997, exceeds 14 months. Together, those actions indicate modest adjustments in loan terms in response to additional risk created by weaker profit margins and reduced cash flow. Repayment rates are slipping, as more producers ask for loan extensions or renewals.

    The quarterly Databook notes the challenge to bankers – and farmers – posed by forecasts of weak profit margins, continued declines in land values, and a slump in loan repayment rates. 

    “If expectations hold, a slow but steady increase in farm financial stress appears likely to continue,” says the Kansas City Fed in a separate report. MetLife Agricultural Finance forecasts a “moderate repricing” downward of farmland values through 2018.

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    "Click Here" to view a Slide Show of Drought Monitor maps for the last 12 weeks
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    Looking Ahead:
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    During the next 5 days (December 8-12), moderate precipitation (0.5-1.5 inches) is anticipated from Tennessee through the Great Lakes region, which will at least help preclude additional deterioration for the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. For most other areas east of the Rockies, precipitation amounts are expected to be less than a half-inch. Locally heavy amounts of precipitation (liquid equivalent of 2-4 inches) are predicted for the higher elevations of the Rockies. Most of the expected precipitation for the Pacific Coast states is forecast to fall in areas that are not currently in drought, with the exception of the Sierras where up to 7 inches (liquid equivalent) is anticipated.

    For the ensuing 5-day period (December 13-17), odds favor above-median precipitation across approximately the northern and eastern halves of the contiguous U.S., while odds favor below-median precipitation from Arizona eastward to the southern Great Plains, and Alaska.

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    How Current Are The Feedyards?
    Ag Center Cattle Report
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    Cattle feeders have enjoyed several consecutive weeks of improving prices and some are expecting the rally to continue but late week futures trading cast doubts on the price direction in year end trading. Futures prices are guesses and they can be wrong just as individual traders can err in their forecast. There are many complex forces at work on the market and little science to be applied to price forecasting.

    Carcass weights is important in evaluating both currentness of fed offerings and supplies of beef on the market. The last report from November 19th showed average weights for steers 5# under prior year but that is expected to change and weights will likely exceed last year in the next couple weeks. This is not so much related to the current nature of offerings as to excellent feeding weather. There remains and will continue to be more heifers in the slaughter mix tending to reduce total average carcass weights.

    The quality grade on cattle this year is 1-2% higher grade than last year. This continues a long string of years in which the quality grade has improved each year. This is in part genetics, part heavier cattle placed on feed, and part cattle fed longer. With larger supplies of cattle on hand, and corn prices low, the inclination of feeders is to lower the breakeven by feeding cattle longer.

    Show list numbers continue to run well above prior year but those numbers are driven by larger monthly placements, year on year, except for the most recent October number. Show lists tend to be noise when taken in isolation. There is little question that the cash trade has been larger for the past few weeks but that does not necessarily mean we are digging into future supplies leaving a gap in the upcoming weeks.

    Regardless of the current nature of fed offerings, the demand side of the business will determine the future of prices for cattle. Beef features by retailers between now and Christmas will set the stage for beef movement and consumer demand at the stores. There is support for the notion that retailers with generous margins on beef will sponsor specials in the coming weeks and those specials will find good reception among consumers. Winter may not be prime time for beef but a respite from turkey is always welcome.

    Not to be excluded from the mix is the important but often overlooked factor of the dollar index. Subsequent to Trump's election, the dollar has been in major rally mode as interest rates have posted the largest short term advance in years. An advance in the value of the dollar makes our exports more expensive and our imports cheaper -- not good for beef. It is too early to assess the new administration's trade policy but an isolationist policy would not be good for beef exports.

    In the final analysis the current nature of fed cattle is assisted and encouraged by a heavily discounted futures board. The need to market cattle now for fear of lower prices in the future is the number one adversary of overfed cattle. Stubbornness and fighting the market also is illogical when the option is to replace with another set of cattle with a still lower breakeven.

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    Feedyard Closeouts: Profit/(Loss)
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    Slaughter Cattle:
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    Negotiated Prices - Slaughter Steers & Heifers:
    Live Basis                Steers                                         Heifers
    Over 80% Choice     106.50 - 110.00 avg 108.94     106.00 - 110.00 avg 109.86
    65 - 80% Choice       109.00 - 110.00 avg 109.96     107.00 - 110.50 avg 109.71
    35 - 65% Choice       110.00 - 110.50 avg 110.12     110.00 - 110.50 avg 110.04
    0 - 35% Choice                       -                                                      -
    Total all Grades         106.50 - 110.50 avg 109.77     106.00 - 110.50 avg 109.82

    Dressed Basis
    Over 80% Choice     168.00 - 174.00 avg 168.94     168.00 - 170.00 avg 169.28
    65 - 80% Choice                    -                                       170.00 - 170.00 avg 170.00
    35 - 65% Choice                    -                                                      -
    0 - 35% Choice                      -                                                      -
    Total all Grades       168.00 - 174.00 avg 168.94       168.00 - 170.00 avg 169.88

    Livestock Slaughter under Federal Inspection:
                                   CATTLE     CALVES   HOGS            SHEEP
    Friday  (est)            113,000       2,000         437,000          7,000
    Week ago (est)      113,000        2,000         426,000          7,000
    Year ago (act)        113,000        2,000         435,000          8,000
    Week to date (est) 576,000     10,000      2,184,000        40,000
    Last Week (est)      575,000     10,000      2,178,000        41,000
    Last Year (act)        560,000       9,000      2,194,000        43,000

    Saturday (est)            35,000         0               259,000              0
    Week ago (est)         41,000         0               357,000               0
    Year ago (act)            20,000         0               235,000              0
    Week to date (est)  611,000     10,000       2,443,000        40,000
    Last Week (est)      616,000      10,000      2,535,000         41,000
    Last Year* (act)       580,000     10,000       2,430,000         43,000
    2016 YTD           28,421,000   444,000   110,621,000  1,885,000
    2015 *YTD          26,906,000   418,000   108,742,000   1,885,000
    Percent change       5.6%            6.3%             1.7%              0.0%

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    National Grain Summary:
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    Compared to last week, grain and soybean bids traded mixed.  South America found itself at the center of attention again, with unfavorable weather conditions in Argentina raising concerns on how it may affect crop yields.  In contrast, Brazil’s optimal growing weather has played its part and been weighing on the market in return.  Weekly export sales and shipments for wheat totaled 18.5 and 20.4 mb, respectively.  This is bullish news for wheat.  Weekly exports for corn totaled 58.9 mb, with shipments at 53.8 mb.  Both of these may be viewed as bullish for corn.  Export sales and shipments for soybeans totaled 53.7 and 68.7, respectively, which also may be viewed as bullish news for soybeans.  Wheat was 17 cents lower to 13 cents higher.  Corn was mostly 6 to 16 cents higher with Kansas City No 2 truck Yellow Corn 34 to 38 cents higher.  Sorghum was 18 to 37 cents higher.  Soybeans were 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher.
    Corn futures ended the day 5 1/4 to 6 cents higher through the December 2017 contract, which was high-range for the day. For the week, March corn posted a gain of 11 1/2 cents. The ability of the corn market to rally in the face of a strong dollar is impressive and provides hope that large speculative traders will continue to build a long position. But key for the corn market next week will be how the soybean and wheat markets perform. 

    Soybean futures closed 10 1/2 to 12 cents higher through the November contract. January futures closed 10 cents higher for the week. Soybean futures are likely to move higher next week as technical indicators remain positive. Export news remains favorable, and prices will remain supported as long as hefty export news flows. 30-day outlook: Traders will begin to turn their attention to South America where a record harvest is expected in Brazil. 

    Wheat futures traded in a narrow, choppy range for much of the morning. But the market enjoyed a late surge in buying that helped winter wheat to settled roughly 8 to 9 cents higher for the day. HRS wheat posted gains of roughly 4 to 6 cents. The SRW wheat market posted modest gains for the week. The performance of the dollar will be in focus next week as the greenback has a major impact on ag commodity trade. 

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    Five Year Moving Average - Corn & Wheat:
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    Your Suggestions:
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