The Cattle Range Home Page
The Cattle Range Home Page
www.cattlerange.com
.

.
The Cattle Range Weekly Market Summary provides market data for the informed cattleman. Current industry news & commentary as well as a comprehensive comparison of the past week's prices from around the country in comparison to the previous week, month, 6 months ago, 1 year ago, & 5 year average.  The data is compiled from a variety of sources and is organized to provide insight in determining market movement and trends.
.

On-Line Store
.

.

.
---
SAMPLE... Market Summary for the week ending October 10th:
.
  • Bullish: After several weeks of stagnant or lower prices, both fed cattle and dressed beef traded higher this week.
  • Bearish: International economic data has negatively affected most markets, including cattle.
.

.
The Cattle Range 10-Day Market Trend:
.
An indicator of overall cattle/beef market strength. The angle indicates direction & velocity of the trend.
.
.
The Trendline is based on daily market factors for the last 10 days.
Each daily factor is the aggregate weighted total of the Gain/(Loss) for 10 major market indicators compared to the previous trading day.
.

.
National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary:
.
RECEIPTS:  Auctions    Direct    Video/Internet   Total
This Week     231,600     21,800        11,000        264,400 
Last Week     204,600     35,000        26,200        265,800 
Last Year         N/A           N/A            N/A             N/A
.
Compared to last week, feeder and stocker cattle markets continued to show considerable strength for the start of October which is annually the month with the most pressure from spring-born calf sales.  This week yearlings sold mostly 3.00-7.00 higher with instances 10.00 higher.   While arrivals of mostly new crop calves sold 5.00-10.00 higher with spots as much as 15.00 higher on the lighter weight calves under 500 lbs.  Featherweight calves in many areas under 400 lbs easily saw the full advance with a string of 142 head of value added (NHTC) steer calves weighing 368 lbs sold for 419.50 at the Hub City Livestock Market in Aberdeen, SD on Wednesday. 

Both calf and yearling markets noted the full advance on steers, while heifer sales (mostly calves) represented the lower ends of this week’s advance.  The feeder cattle market keeps moving along at a very brisk pace.  Anyone who has been at the auctions for any extended period will tell you feeders are too high however feeder cattle keep advancing at such a rapid pace that the thought of a market top is only short lived and replaced with a new one the next day or certainly the next week.  Order buyers continue to flex their muscle in pursuing all classes of feeder cattle in the face of historical high prices.  Stocker and feeder calf buyers are a long way from filling their needs as Corn Belt cattlemen have huge mounds of silage, hay and corn ready to feed.  This has livestock producers on the offensive while the grain producer is just the opposite; on the defensive. 

Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle Futures continue to show good strength for the week, with most Feeder Cattle contracts continue to make all-time highs.  Then on Thursday the Stock Market had its worst day of the year falling 334 points lower on slowing global economies as Live and Feeder cattle futures then fell off their triple-digit gains to close lower.  Stay tuned this could be a bumpy ride as cattle futures remain very volatile with sharp losses posted on Friday to end the week. 

Last Friday packers reentered the market to cover needs as fat cattle traded at mostly 162.00 live which was 3.00-4.00 higher than the previous week.  On Thursday afternoon fat cattle in Kansas and Nebraska traded 2.00-3.00 higher from 163.00-164.00, with dressed sales 5.00-6.00 higher from 257.00-258.00 and live sales in Nebraska on Friday trading up to 165.00.  Boxed beef found its footing on Monday to start the week gaining 3.00 and continued to climb higher over the next five sessions gaining near 9.00 dollars with Choice closing Friday at 247.67.  Corn futures so far this week have made a modest recovery mostly due to weather conditions as fall rains have slowed harvest across the Corn Belt and grain traders positioning themselves ahead of Friday’s USDA Supply and Demand Report that estimated the largest average yield of 174.2 bushels per acre.  Any way you look at it corn supplies are going to be very abundant.  This week’s auction volume included 40 percent over 600 lbs and 38 percent heifers. 

.
Stocker Steers:
.
Feeder Steers:
.
.
Five Year Moving Average - Stocker Steers, Feeder Steers, & Slaughter Steers:
.
.
.

.
Selected Auction Reports:
"Click" on individual auction links for complete report
Oklahoma National Stockyards - Oklahoma City OK...
Actual Receipts:  8428   Last Monday:  6517   Year Ago Monday: 8986
Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers traded 5.00 to 7.00 higher, with instances of up to 12.00 higher on 700-750 lb steers.  Steer calves mostly 7.00 to 15.00 higher.  Heifer calves mostly steady to 2.00 higher.

El Reno Cattle Narrative - El Reno OK
Receipts:  5708    Last Week:  5226    Year Ago:  N/A
Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers 4.00 to 7.00 higher.  Steer calves sold sharply higher with very good demand.  Heifer calves sold steady to firm.

Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg - Carthage MO
Receipts:  3900    Week Ago:  4405    Year Ago:  4386
Compared to last week, steer calves 5.00 to 7.00 higher, yearling steers steady to 3.00 higher and heifer calves 4.00 to 9.00 higher, yearling heifers 3.00 to 6.00 higher.

Tri-State Livestock Auction Market - McCook NE
Receipts:  1500    Last Week:  1900    Year Ago:  2300
Compared to last week steers and heifers were 2.00 – 13.00 Higher, on weights under 700 lbs. No comparison over 700 lbs.

Huss Platte Valley Auction - Kearney NE
Receipts:  2370    Two Weeks Ago:  2800    Year Ago:  0
Compared to two weeks ago steers and heifers sold steady to 15.00 higher.

Tulia Livestock Auction - Tulia TX
Receipts:  1841    Last Week:  2977    Last Year:  N/A
Compared to last week:  Yearling and calf steers and heifers sold steady.  Slaughter cows and bulls were not well tested.

Cattleman's Livestock Auction - Dalhart, TX
Cattle and Calves:  1710      Week Ago:  1156        Year Ago:  1710
Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers under 600 lbs firm to5.00 higher with instances on 300-400 lb heifers 10.00 higher.  Steers over 600 lbs fully firm; heifers over 600 lbs not well tested due to limitednumbers last week but much higher undertone noted.  Offerings were mostlyattractive with a few plain.  Slaughter cows and bulls mostly steady.

Clovis Livestock Auction - Clovis NM
Receipts:  2727              Week Ago: 2421              Year Ago: 2121
Compared to last week: Stocker and feeder steers and heifers under 600 lbs steady, over 600 lbs 3.00-6.00 higher.  Slaughter cows and bulls steady to 1.00 higher on limited comparable sales due to last week's limited test.

Toppenish, WA Livestock Auction - Toppenish WA
Receipts:  2400    Last Week:  2055    Year Ago:  N/A
Compared to last Thursday at same sale, stocker steers less than 600 lbs. steady to 8.00 lower. Feeder steers and heifers firm to 8.00 higher. Trade active with moderate to good demand. Slaughter cows steady. Slaughter bulls steady to weak.

Farmers & Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. - Salina KS
Receipts:  2338    Last Week:  2456    Year Ago:  3062
Compared to last week: Steers 800-950 lbs steady to 2.00 higher, 800 lbs and under higher undertones noted in a limited supply. Heifers 300-900 lbs overall steady undertones noted in a very limited supply.

Sioux Falls Regional Livestock wtd Avg Report - Worthing SD
Receipts:  2039    Last Week:  2377    Year Ago:  NA
Compared to last week:  Feeder steer calves 10.00 to 20.00 higher,yearlings 700-850 lbs steady with instances to 3.00 lower, 900-950 lbs 2.00 to 3.00 higher.  Feeder heifers 400-500 lbs 15.00 to 20.00 higher, 650-700 lbs steady to firm, other weights had no comparable sales.

Mitchell Livestock Wtd Avg Report - Mitchell SD
Receipts:  2403    Last Week:  3565    Year Ago:  NA
Compared to last week:  Feeder steer calves sold firm to 10.00 higher, yearlings had few comparable sales but sold on steady to firm undertones.  Feeder heifer calves 400-450 higher sold sharply higher, 550-650 lbs steady to 3.00 higher, yearlings 700-750 lbs steady to 4.00 higher, 850-900 lbs 2.00 to 6.00 higher, other weights too lightly tested to compare.

Weekly Auction Summaries:
"Click" on individual links for complete report
Tennessee Weekly Auction Summary
Receipts on 12 TN Auctions 10,880 11 Last Week 9,700 10 Last Year 8,300
Trends:  According to the Federal-State Market News Service, comparedto the same sales one week ago, slaughter cows 1.00 to 3.00 lower.Slaughter bulls 2.00 to 3.00 lower. Steers/bulls steady to 6.00 higher.Heifers steady to 2.00 higher.

Kentucky Weekly Livestock Summary
Receipts                This Week 24,532            Last Week 22,829         Last Year 22,739
Compared to last week Steer Calves sold mostly steady with instances to 5.00 higher. Demand was very good.  Heifer calves sold steady to 5.00 higher with most advance in the 400-600 lbs weight range.    Yearling Steers andHeifers sold 2.00 higher with good demand.  Slaughter Cows sold 1.00 to 2.00 higher and Slaughter Bulls 2.00 higher with good demand.

Mississippi Weekly Livestock Summary
Cattle Receipts:    8,459       Last Week:     9,299       Last Year:    0
Compared to last week, slaughter cows sold 4.00 to 6.00 lower and bulls sold mixed. Feeder steers and heifers sold steady to 10.00 higher.

Alabama Auctions Weekly Summary
Total estimated receipts this week 16,463, last week 16,935 and 16,386 last year.
Compared to one week ago: Slaughter cows and bulls sold 2.00 to 4.00 lower. Replacement cows and pairs sold mostly steady. All feeder classes sold 5.00 higher.

Georgia Cattle Auctions Weekly Review
Cattle receipts at 25 markets 10,038 compared to 11,118 last week and N/A year ago.
Compared to one week earlier, slaughter cows 1.00 to 3.00 lower, bulls steady to 1.00 lower, feeder steers 2.00 to 4.00 higher, bulls 1.00 to 4.00 higher, heifers 2.00 to 4.00 higher, steer calves steady to 4.00 higher, bull calves 2.00 to 5.00 higher, heifer calves 2.00 to 4.00 higher, replacement cows mostly steady.

Colorado Auction Feeder Cattle Summary
Receipts: 1377       Last Week: 1220       Last Year:  N/A
Compared to last week: No comparable sales on feeder steers or heifers, but a higher undertone was noted.

Direct Sales of Feeder & Stocker Cattle:
"Click" on individual links for complete report
AZ-CA-NV Weekly Feeder Cattle Review (Fri)
Confirmed: 7,850 
Compared to last week, Trade and demand moderate.  Holstein steers for February delivery traded mostly steady. 

Colorado Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
Receipts: 1220       Last Week: 717       Last Year:  N/A
Compared to last week: No comparable sales on feeder steers or heifers. 

Eastern Cornbelt Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
Reported sales this week: 57    Last Week: 0    Last year: N/A
Compared to last week: No trend available for feeder steers andheifers due to limited comparable sales.  Farmers are busy getting ready to harvest corn and beans. 

Georgia Direct Cattle Summary (Fri)
Confirmed sales on 2132 head.

IA-South MN Direct Feeder Cattle Weekly (Mon)
Receipts:  0    Last Week:  195    Year Ago:  na

Kansas Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
Receipts:  2333    Last Week:  3036       Last Year: NA
Compared with last week: Steers 2-3 higher, not enough current heifers for a market test; country sales did not reflect the major advances in prices as the auctions markets. Sales confirmed on 1422 steers, 911 heifers and no calves for a total of 2333 head compared with 3036 last week.

Montana Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
Receipts:  183    Last Week: 0    Year Ago:  N/A
Compared to last week:  No trades reported on feeder steers or heifers. 

New Mexico Feeder Cattle Report (Mon)
Receipts:  800    Last Week:  1300    Last Year:  N/A
Compared to last week:  Not enough steer or heifer sales for an adequate market trend; however, a higher undertone was noted.

Oklahoma Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
Receipts:  2739        Last Week:  1585        Last Year:  N/A
Compared to last week:  All classes of feeder cattle sold sharply higher on limited comparable sales due to last week's light supply.

Northwest Wtd Avg Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
Receipts 5,600        Last Week 5,500        Last Year N/A 
Compared to last week, feeder cattle steady to firm.

South Dakota Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
Receipts: 547         Last Week: 0          Last Year: N/A 
Compared to last week:  No price trend available, due to no comparable sales last week. 

Texas Weekly Direct Feeder Cattle Summary
Confirmed:  13,500      Last Week: 10,600       Last Year: 0 
Compared to last week’s light test of current FOB feeder steers and heifers the market was mostly 2.00-6.00 higher but instances up to 10.00 higher with a much better test of Current FOB steers this week.  In fact, last week we only had one load of 700-849 lbs Med and Large 1 Current FOB steers and this week we had over 2200 hd. 

WY, Western NE & Western Dakotas Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
Receipts:  1,038    Week Ago: 767   Year Ago: NA 
Compared to last week, feeder steers sold fully steady. Demand was good with several buyers participating. Cold, rainy, light snow and wind across the reporting regions this week has slowed harvest.

.
.

.
Cattle Futures:
.
Cash strength seemed to offer little help to bulls Friday morning. CME traders have been expecting fresh cash gains in the wake of the early-week jump in beef prices. Those expectations, along with recent stock market weakness, probably explain the poor reaction posted by CME futures. December live cattle futures declined 0.075 cents to 165.80 cents/pound Friday, while April futures dove 1.05 to 165.35. Meanwhile, November feeder futures plunged 2.425 cents to 239.10 cents/pound and January feeders plummeted 2.425 to 232.870.
.

.
Representative Sales of Cow & Pairs:
.
  • Woodward, OK
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and large 1  2-7 yrs 950-1500 lbs 2-7 months 2300.00-2750.00, lot 3 yrs 1125 lbs 4-5 months 3075.00; 8-10 yrs 1350-1475 lbs 4-8 months 2000.00-2025.00.  Medium and Large 1-2  2-7 yrs 950-1450 lbs 2-7 months 1750.00-2150.00, 7-10 yrs 1100-1450 lbs 3-7 months 1650.00-1950.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-8 yrs 850-11150 lbs w/125-375 lb calves 2100.00-2900.00; 3-5 yrs 1050 lb w/375 lb calves 3300.00. 
  • El Reno, OK
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1  2-7 yrs 900-1500 lbs 2-7 months 2000.00-2550.00.  Medium and Large 1-2  2-8 yrs 850-1500 lbs 3-7 months 1685.00-1990.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium amd Large 1-2  2-8 yrs 1000-1200 lbs w/125-200 lb calves 2000.00-2200.00; 2-5 yrs 1200 lbs w/200 lb calves 2725.00-3085.00. 
  • Oklahoma City, OK
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-6 yrs 1135-1550 lbs 3-8 months 2050.00-2350.00.  Medium and Large 1-2  3-10 yrs 1000-1450 lbs 3-7 months 1325.00-1775.00, few 1975.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and large 1-2  2-5 yrs 850-1275 lbs w/50-200 lb calves 2150.00-2950.00. 
  • Joplin, MO
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-6 yrs 950-1350 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 2100.00-2500.00, few 1700.00-1900.00, 1st stage 1020-1350 lbs 1750.00-2025.00; short solid mouth 2nd stage 1175-1250 lbs 1600.00-1700.00; brokenmouth to aged 2nd-3rd stage 1100-1335 lbs 1280.00-1520.00.  Large 1-2  4-6yrs 3rd stage 1450-1550 lbs 2450.00-2475.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium Large 1-2  4-6 yrs 1175-1300 lbs w/160-300 lb calves 2650.00-3100.00.  Medium 1-2  4 yrs to short solid mouth 950-1050 lbs w/155-265 lb calves 2300.00-2700.00.
  • Springfield, MO
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-6 yrs 1150-1200 lbs 2nd-stage 1800.00-2000.00; 7 yrs to short solid mouth 2nd-3rd stage 1070-1250 lbs 1485.00-1775.00.  Large 1-2  6 yrs to short solid mouth 3rd stage 1385-1495 lbs 1600.00-1750.00.  Medium and Large 2  4-7 yrs 2nd stage 875-1245 lbs 1450.00-1550.00.  Medium 1-2  3 yrs to short solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 835-1035 lbs 1375.00-1550.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  5 yrs to short solid mouth 1175-1225 lbs w/150-160 lb calves 2200.00-2400.00.  Medium 1-2  short solid mouth to aged 900-945 lbs w/baby to 300 lb calves 1875.00-1975.00. 
  • West Plains, MO
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and large 1-2  2-7 yrs 900-1550 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 2050.00-2450.00, pkg 12 hd 3 yrs 1065 lbs blk-whf 2nd to 3rd stage 2800.00; short-solid mouth 1118-1540 lbs 2nd to 3rd stage 1800.00-2075.00.  Medium and Large 2  2-6 yrs 860-1525 lbs 1st to 3rd stage 1550.00-2000.00; 7 yrs to broken mouth 745-1610 lbs 1st to 2nd stage 1450.00-1750.00.  Medium 2  3 yrs to broken-mouth 765-1025 lbs 1st to 3rd stage 850.00-1400.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-6 yrs 890-1180 lbs w/150-250 lb calves 2100.00-2550.00; short-solid mouth 920-961 lbs w/200 lb calves 2050.00-2300.00.  Medium and Large 2  2-7 yrs 740-1128 lbs w/150-250 lb calves 1700.00-2050.00; short-solid to broken mouth 855-1060 lbs w/100-200 lb calves 1650.00-1800.00. 
  • Riverton, WY
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2 heifers 815-1000 lbs 2200.00-2500.00, few 1750.00-1800.00; Young lot 1213 lbs 2725.00, several 2000.00-2475.00; Middle Aged (Short Solids) 1180-1475 lbs 1700.00-2150.00; Aged (Short Term) 1225-1565 lbs 1675.00-1775.00, couple 1375.00. 
    • Pairs: Medium-Large 1 Young few 1185-1275 lb cows w/150 lb calves 2900.00-3000.00, couple 840 lbs w/275 lb calves 1350.00. 
  • Roswell, NM
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  Young 935-1070 lbs 3-6 months 1625.00-1775.00; middle aged 1035-1425 lbs 1-8 months 1250.00-1700.00.  First Calf Heifers: 840-1125 lbs 1-6 months 1600.00-2000.00. 
    • Pairs: Young 800-1150 lbs w/250-300 lb calves 1700.00-2425.00; middle aged 1000-1315 lbs w/130-400 lb calves 2100.00-2450.00. 
  • Arkansas
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-7 yrs 850-1250 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 140.00-150.00 cwt; 1725.00-1825.00; first stage/open 125.00-135.00 cwt; 7-10 yrs 800-1200 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 112.00-122.00 cwt; 1500.00-1600.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-7 yrs 800-1200 lbs w/100-200 lb calves 2025.00-2125.00; few to 2500.00.  Small-Medium Frame 1-2  7+ yrs 750-900 lbs w/100-200 lb calves 1650.00-1750.00. 
.

.
Bred Cows & Heifers in 2nd & 3rd Stages of Pregnancy:
.
.
The average prices above are from USDA market reports which seldom reference breed or quality.
.

.
Canadian Cattle:
.
Alberta Beef Producers:  Alberta direct cattle sales Thursday saw light scattered trade develop with dressed sales roughly 3.00 higher than the previous week. In general the relationship between bids and asking prices remain quite distant. Cash leverage has been limited and given weaker basis levels producers have been reluctant to market cattle.
.
Canadian Weekly Cattle Report:

Fed cattle strong

  • The cash trade shrivelled up as sellers opted for attractive contracts.
  • The few cattle offered on the cash market were priced well above packer bids, and a trade standoff de-veloped.
  • Chicago live cattle futures posted new record highs and the loonie weakened, which meant feedlot asking prices were well supported. However, packers have negative processing margins, making them unwilling to bid higher.
  • A few live sales were reported Sept. 1 with prices $4-$6 per hundredweight higher than the previous week.
  • However, total trade volumes were too light to establish a reliable weekly price trend.
  • The Alberta fed cattle show list lacks the critical cash volume necessary to sustain current cash prices.
  • Uncertain retail demand and negative processing margins will encourage disciplined packer bids and further limit cash trade.
  • The cash-to-futures basis was not fully established but was -$16 to -$20, which should start to attract U.S. buyer interest.
  • Weekly western Canadian fed slaughter to Sept. 27 fell six percent to 34,551 head.
  • Weekly fed exports to Sept. 20 fell 32 percent to 4,903 head.
  • A marked increase in feeder and non-fed traffic heading south pressured the limited number of trucks available for hauling.
  • Market-ready fed supply is expected to tighten by mid-fourth quarter. Packers are trying to manage this by extending the pick-up time for the cattle they own.
Cows stronger
  • Western Canadian cow slaughter rose to a strong 6,145 head last week.
  • Slaughter has been 450 to 1,000 head below the 2013 pace over the past three weeks.
  • D1, D2 cows ranged $116-$135 to average $124.70, which was up about $1 over the previous week.
  • D3s ranged $102-$118 to average $111.25.
  • Butcher cow prices are $40-$45 higher than the same week last year, but they are trading at a $4-$6 discount to U.S. utility prices.
  • The North American lean trim market has been counter-seasonal.
  • To give an idea where the beef complex is maximizing value, U.S. 90 percent trim prices are 50 percent higher than what they were last year while Choice ribs are up only 10 percent.
Feeders soar
  • Live and feeder futures posted new record highs, supporting cash and forward delivered prices.
  • Calf prices have broken away from historical trends.
  • In 80 percent of the years from 1990 to 2009, 650 lb. steer average prices declined from September to October.
  • However, in three of the past four years, monthly steer prices have strengthened in that period.
  • The average increase was 3.2 percent in the three years when prices rose. The increase will likely be even more this year.
  • Supply is so tight that the few pre-conditioned calves on the cash market are fetching little premium over fresh-weaned calves.
  • However, load lots of pre-conditioned calves for late fall delivery are seeing premiums of about $5 per cwt.
  • Weekly feeder exports to Sept. 20 rose 37 percent to 12,581 head.
  • The weaker Canadian dollar will continue to boost export demand.
Beef price steadies
  • U.S. boxed beef prices were mixed with Choice down 66 cents at US$238.45 per cwt. Oct. 2 and Select up $1.99 at $227.33.
  • Weekly Canadian cutout to Sept. 20 saw AAA steady at C$262.68 and AA down $3.53 at $249.57.
  • Beef production is up two percent in Canada this year and down 6.1 percent in the United States.
  • The AAA/Choice spread has averaged -$15.47 in the first three quarters, significantly wider than last year’s -$4.57.
  • Canadian beef production is expected to tighten in the fourth quarter, reflecting the lower cattle feedlot placement in the summer.
This cattle market information is selected from the weekly report from CanFax, a division of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association.
.

.
Canadian Cattle Prices:
Prices have been converted to U.S. $/CWT.  Grades changed to approximate U.S. equivalents
Exchange Rate: Canadian dollar equivalent to $0.8994 U.S dollars
.
Prices for the week ending October 3rd:
.
.
.
.

.
Cattle Prices: How High is High -- Revisited?:
.
“Feeder and fed cattle prices are at or near all time highs and are poised to keep moving higher. Both Feeder and Live cattle futures suggest that higher prices are yet to come. In several recent meetings and conversations with producers, I am seeing a couple of reactions to the current situation. There seems to be an overall feeling of disbelief or a sense that there is another shoe to fall. The basic question seems to be one of “Is this for real?”. Given everything we have been through in recent years and the amount of volatility in most input and output markets, such hesitancy is understandable. It is easy to remember corn and wheat markets in 2008 which soared to astronomical heights for a brief period of time. Are cattle markets in the same situation: set for a wild but short-lived ride into the stratosphere?”

The preceding paragraph was taken from an article that I wrote in January of 2011. I stumbled across it recently and realized that it applies to an even greater extent today with a market situation that is significantly different than when the original article was written. Feeder cattle prices today are nearly double (up over 90 percent) the level when the question was posed in 2011. Fed cattle prices are up over 50 percent from early 2011. No one knew in January, 2011 that the beef industry would suffer tremendously with drought impacts into 2014 that would take an already tight supply situation to extreme levels and provoke the current unimaginable production and market situation.

It appeared in early 2011 that the beef cattle industry was poised for herd expansion with cattle inventories already lower than intended by the industry. Instead, we find ourselves in 2014 with the beef cow herd down another 6 percent from the 2011 level. Though herd expansion has likely started in 2014, it will take another three years to recover the 1.87 million head of beef cows lost since 2011. Additional expansion beyond that level is likely but will depend on domestic and international market conditions towards the end of the decade. The prospects for herd expansion for much of the rest of the decade suggest that cattle prices are likely to grind higher yet from current record levels before peaking and working lower towards the end of the decade. I’m hearing many producers and others repeating the adage that “high prices cure high prices” and they do; but in the case of the beef industry it will likely take most of the rest of the decade for that to happen. The beef industry does not work like crop production in which major production adjustments can occur in a matter of one crop year. Heifer retention will make tight cattle supplies tighter for a couple of years before any resulting production increase hits the market. The current situation pretty much ensures a four to six year recovery process with supply driven price strength for much of that process.

Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension

.

.
Bearish or Bullish: Listen to the Spot:
.
CME Cattle Futures posted a huge reversal yesterday, bringing closeted bears out in force and scaring late-comer bulls to the sidelines. Once again traders ask themselves if this reversal is THE reversal. Rotten performances by global equity markets and the lowest prices in many commodity markets in years, grains and crude come quickly to mind, were held up as rationale for the sell-off, as traders ask, why the cattle complex, overbought technically, should be immune.

Reality Lurks

But despite a limit down move in Oct and Dec LC after scoring all-time highs, or maybe because of it, packers got to work, paying fully steady to mostly higher for cash cattle, $256-259 in Nebraska, $164 in Kansas and $165 in Iowa to a regional. In Nebraska this morning, $258 is still bid by a major packer.

A secondary market continues to develop, a premium basis market out 30 to 120 days, as packers vie to control as many cattle as possible during a time period that promises to see some of the smallest beef production in history. Reminiscent of the childhood game musical chairs, packers are acutely aware there simply won’t be enough cattle to go around this winter.

There has even been mention this week that packers may become more involved in buying cattle, weighing them up and putting them back on feed than ever before, as they again focus on ownership of limited inventory.

Big, Big Cattle

Yesterday’s USDA actual weight data told us what we already know, cattle are being fed to heavier weights, steers weighing 30 pounds more than the 5 year average and 26 pounds more than a year ago. And only if Mother Nature interferes with an ugly winter, this trend is here to stay.

Lots of Red but Bull Spreads Bullish

From the Dow to grains, feeders to gold much of the quote screen today is red and most every contract month will likely close lower on the week except Oct LC. It was true for Jun LC and for Aug LC, big moves in the spreads during spot. The Jun/Aug moved over $3, the Aug/Oct over $8. Oct/Dec is picking up over $1 today and has moved almost $3 this month.

Perhaps sucking premium out of the deferred LC futures is anything but bearish from a longer term perspective. As packers try to match supply to demand over the next several months, the game of pushing and pulling cattle 2 to 3 weeks one way or another has never been more pronounced, nor possibly with more money at stake.

The Beef

.

.
Photo of the Week:
.
  • Red Angus Bred Heifers... Central NE*
  • .

    .
    Shootin' the Bull:
    .
    In my opinion, I perceive there to be a great many conversations this weekend about what the future now holds for the cattle industry. The break in the futures market couldn't have been unexpected by too many. There have appeared a few signs this week that were perceived as topping action. A "Shooting Star" pattern emerged early this week and the rallies continued to contract. On Thursday, a key outside reversal materialized and Friday saw follow through selling. Supply is quickly being increased through anticipated increases in placements, imports, and heavier carcass weights. Consumer demand may be able to stay about the same if nothing spooks them. The plummeting gasoline prices are a huge help to consumers. However, the declining energy market is not a very good sign of economic recovery. Two of the largest factors in a growing economy is the demand for energy and money. Both are in severe bear markets. Interest rates continue to move lower as the demand for money has not increased at all. With all but one or two commodity markets in a tail spin lower, the slight increase in supply of beef has the potential to send it reeling. 

    I've stated more than once that I have perceived there to not be as much of a shortage of cattle as there was a shortage of people wanting to sell cattle. Recipts at many sale barns and video sales continue to be over last years. While there are hundreds of "if" scenario's out there, if this is the top for some time to come, I would anticipate there to be cattle found everywhere. All previous recommendations to own put option price protection has been thwarted by the sharp increases in price. I fully understand how difficult it has been to keep price protection under the market and watch it depreciate to nothing. However, the current amount of working capital at risk is such that I do not recommend ignoring what potentially may be to come in cattle pricing. While it was difficult putting positions on when prices were rising, I anticipate it to be exceptionally difficult as prices fall. 

    Corn has created a small range from contract low to Friday's high. I anticipate corn to trade in this range for several weeks. I perceive that intrinsic value has been found for corn and I would urge you to not anticipate the futures to trade down to the lows that some areas are currently trading. 

    Christopher B. Swift is a commodity broker and consultant with Swift Trading Company in Nashville, TN. Mr. Swift authors the daily commentaries "mid day cattle comment" and "Shootin' the Bull" commentary found on his website @ www.shootinthebull.com

    An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits.  You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

    .

    .
    The Saga of Bart -- Trials & Tribulations of a Cattle Buyer
    .
    At 1:30 AM, Bart was headed home from one of his patented "business meetings" and was stopped by a policeman for failing to signal a lane change.

    The officer said, "Sir, I'm going to let you off with a warning.  By the way -- Where are you going at this time of the night?"

    Bart said, “I am going to attend a lecture about alcohol abuse and consorting with wild women and the detrimental effects they have on marriages”.

    The officer asked, “Really? Who's giving that lecture this late?” 

    Matter of factly, Bart replied, “My wife.”

    .

    .
    Submit a "Bart Joke"  If we use it, you'll receive a $25.00 Gift Certificate to The Cattle Range Mercantile.
    .

    .
    NCBA to Fight USDA Plan to Create 2nd Beef Checkoff Program:
    .
    The largest contractor of the Beef Checkoff Program, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), said today that U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack’s idea to reform the checkoff by creating another beef checkoff fund is dead on arrival with the grassroots organization.

    NCBA President and Texas cattleman Bob McCan said a big majority of producers support the current checkoff structure and that creating a second checkoff is not only duplicative but also potentially risks the future of the Beef Checkoff Program.

    “We have a big majority of support for our checkoff that we have now and very good return on investment – it’s been very successful,” McCan says. “The majority of producers in this country feel that way. It’s our obligation at NCBA as a grassroots organization to vocalize that opinion as much as we can.”

    Established by the 1985 Farm Bill, the Beef Checkoff Program was created to fund projects related to promotion, research, consumer education and international marketing. Of the $1 per head assessment, which is the same amount as it was in 1985, half is allocated to state beef councils and half goes to the Cattlemen’s Beef Promotion and Research Board (CBB) to administer the national checkoff program according to USDA rules and oversight.

    According to the 1985 Act, CBB, in coordination with the Beef Promotion Operating Committee, contracts with established national, non-profit, industry organizations to implement checkoff programs.

    For three years, a checkoff enhancement working group comprised of the industry stakeholders has met to discuss potential reform of the beef checkoff in order for it to meet the needs of today’s diverse cattle industry and make it more effective and efficient. Since that time, the group has not been able to reach a consensus.

    Calling the process a “waste of time and money” and claiming “there is no willingness from key players within the group to allow real reforms to take place,” the National Farmers Union voted to leave the working group. At the same time, NFU passed a resolution calling for a series of changes to the 1985 Act, which would require congressional approval and a change to the 1985 Act.

    The final recommendation called for USDA to place the beef checkoff under the Commodity Promotion, Research and Information Act of 1996 (1996 Act). Unlike the previous recommendations, the final action item proposed by NFU would simply require an act of Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, as the 1996 Act allows the Secretary of Agriculture to write a rule for a new commodity checkoff program.

    .

    .
    Weekly Beef Sales Data:
    .
    Net sales of 14,100 MT for 2014 were up 18 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
    • Increases were reported for Canada (3,500 MT), South Korea (3,000 MT), Japan (2,500 MT), Hong Kong (2,000 MT), and Mexico (1,200 MT). Net sales of 3,200 MT for 2015 were reported for Japan (2,900 MT) and Canada (300 MT). Exports of 14,000 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (4,300 MT), Hong Kong (2,700 MT), South Korea (2,200 MT), Mexico (2,200 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT).
    .

    .
    Margin between the Choice Boxed Beef Cutout & Feeder Steers:
    .
    5 Year Average: $45.35 --- This Week: $12.02
    .

    .
    Out of Kilter:
    .
    A good way to determine if something is, “going on” in a market is by noticing when market relationships are out of kilter. Cattle and grains typically have a positive correlation. They tend to move in tandem. Moderately increase the price of corn and the cattle will follow suit. The opposite is also true as the cost of feed declines, so does the cost of production. However, when this relationship breaks down, its because one market can't keep pace or pass on the costs of the other. 

    That is what occurred in the spring of 2012 with cattle and corn. The price of feed exceeded the livestock market's ability to pass on the costs.  Over the 2013 summer months, the gap was erased and corn went "Out of Kilter" last fall.  A correction started in January but ran out of steam in view of surging cattle prices and plummeting corn prices.

    Normally, the value of 25 bushels of corn is approximately equal to the price per cwt. for feeder steers.

    .
    5 Year Moving Average:
    .
    .

    .
    Crude/Cattle Correlation:
    .
    The chart below shows a fairly consistent correlation between the price for a barrel of crude oil and the per cwt. price for slaughter cattle.  Since it is unlikely the price of cattle affects the price of oil on the world market, it might be assumed the price of crude oil affects the price of cattle, but that is unlikely as well.  It is more likely that economic factors affecting demand for crude oil have a similar effect on demand for beef.

    Accordingly, in the absence of geo/political events disrupting or distorting oil supply, since price trends occur slightly sooner in the crude oil market, crude oil has been a good indicator of the direction of near term cattle prices. However, with increased supplies of crude oil and decreased supplies of slaughter cattle, an "Out of Kilter" situation between the two commodities has developed.

    .
    5 Year Moving Average:
    .
    .

    .
    October 10th USDA Crop Production Report:
    .
    Corn Production Up Less Than 1 Percent from September Forecast
    Soybean Production Up Slightly
    Cotton Production Down 2 Percent
    • Corn production is forecast at 14.5 billion bushels, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and up 4 percent from 2013. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 174.2 bushels per acre, up 2.5 bushels from the September forecast and 15.4 bushels above the 2013 average. If realized, this will be the highest yield and production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.1 million acres, down 1 percent from the September forecast and down 5 percent from 2013. Acreage updates were made in several States following a thorough review of all available data.
    • Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.93 billion bushels, up slightly from September and up 17 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record high 47.1 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from last month and up 3.1 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at a record 83.4 million acres, down less than 1 percent from September but up 9 percent from last year. Acreage updates were made in several States based on a thorough review of all available data.
    .

    .
    Slaughter Cows & Bulls:
    .
    Slaughter cows steady to 3.00 lower. Slaughter bulls steady firm. 

    USDA's Cutter cow carcass cut-out value Friday morning was 232.61 -- Up 1.37 from last Friday.

                   %Lean    Weight       Colorado          Oklahoma       Alabama 
    Breakers  75-80%   1100-1600  113.00-118.00  115.50-120.50  106.00-111.00
    Boners     80-85%   1000-1450  112.00-117.00  114.00-120.50  107.00-112.00
    Lean        85-90%   1000-1300  109.00-111.00  104.50-110.50   98.00-103.00
    Bulls        88-92%   1300-2500  136.00-139.00  135.00-142.50  128.00-132.00

    Negotiated Sale of Packer Cows & Bulls: 

                       Confirmed    Week Ago  Year Ago  Week to Date   Week Ago  Year Ago
    NATIONAL         7,282        5,839         NA            35,197           30,587       NA
    S CENTRAL       1,549        1,392         NA             8,155            7,350       NA
    N CENTRAL         469           391          NA             1,695            1,841        NA
    EAST                2,413        1,876          NA            11,321           9,886        NA
    WEST               1,845        1,097          NA             8,296            6,147        NA
    MIDWEST         1,006        1,083          NA             5,730             5,363       NA

    .

    .
    Weekly Hay Reports:"Click" on links for detailed report
    .
    .
    Weekly Feedstuffs Market Review:
    .
    The USDA Market News Service reports feed ingredient prices for the week ending October 7, were mixed but mostly lower. 
    • Soybean Meal was mixed 52.60 lower to 22.40 higher.  Cottonseed Meal was steady to 40.00 lower. Canola Meal was 15.00 to 34.40 higher. Linseed Meal was 5.00 lower in a limited test.  Sunflower Meal was 10.00 higher. 
    • Whole Cottonseed was steady to 15.00 lower.
    • Crude Soybean Oil was mixed 2 points lower to 119 points higher, mostly 60 to 119 points higher.  Crude Corn Oil was steady. 
    • Ruminant Meat and Bone Meal was mixed 52.00 lower to 5.00 higher.  Ruminant Blood Meal was 25.00 to 40.00 lower.  Feather Meal was mixed, 25.00 lower to 40.00 higher, mostly 25.00 lower to 25.00 higher. Menhaden Fishmeal was steady. 
    • Corn Hominy was mixed 3.00 lower to 5.00 higher. Corn Gluten Feed was steady to 10.00 lower.  Corn Gluten Meal was steady to 20.00 lower, mostly 10.00 to 20.00 lower. 
    • Distillers Dried Grains were mixed, 30.00 lower to 10.00 higher, mostly steady to 15.00 lower. 
    • Wheat Middlings were mixed 10.00 lower to 5.00 higher, mostly 10.00 lower to 5.00 higher.

    .
    Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection:
    .
    Total red meat production under Federal inspection for the week ending Saturday, October 11, 2014 was estimated at 918.1 million lbs. according to the U.S.Department of Agriculture's Marketing Service. This was 0.2 percent lower than a week ago and 4.7 percent lower than a year ago.  Cumulative meat production for the year to date was 4 percent lower compared to the previous year.
    .

    .
    Bullish/Bearish Consensus:
    .
    The theory behind the "Bullish/Bearish Consensus" indicator is when the public reaches a consensus, they are usually wrong:
    • They get too bullish after prices have risen, and too bearish after they have already fallen.
    Because of this tendency, there are often extremes in opinion right before major changes in trend:
    • When the public reaches a bullish extreme, i.e., a great majority thinks prices will keep rising, then prices often decline instead. 
    • And when they become too bearish, then prices tend to rise.
    So when Public Opinion moves above the red dotted linein the chart, it means that compared to other readings over the past year, you're seeing a statistically extreme value.  You also want to look at the absolute level of Opinion, too - if it's at 90%, then there's no question we're seeing an historic level of bullish opinion.  Watch for readings above 80% (or especially 90%) to spot those dangerous times when the public is overly enthusiastic about a commodity.

    Conversely, when Public Opinion moves below the green dotted line, then the public is too pessimistic about the commodity's prospects for further gains compared to their opinion over the past year.  Looking for absolute readings under 20% (or especially 10%) often indicates an upturn in the market.

    .

    .
    Bullish/Bearish Consensus - Cattle
    Last Updated: October 7th
    .
    .

    .
    Bullish/Bearish Consensus - Corn
    Last Updated: October 7th
    .
    .

    .
    National Economic News:
    .
    U.S. stocks decline for third straight week on global growth concerns: U.S. stocks fell for the third consecutive week as signs of slowing growth in Europe stirred anxiety about the global economic outlook. Friday capped a volatile trading week in which the major indexes lurched between positive and negative territory. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average each posted three straight days of moves exceeding 1% in heavy trading, a striking departure from the low-volatility environment of recent months. On Thursday, both large-cap gauges fell 2% in their worst single-day performance since April, and extended their declines on Friday.

    German growth stumbles; IMF warns on eurozone recession: Evidence of flagging growth in Europe mounted this week. Two separate reports showed industrial output and exports from Germany-until now one of the eurozone's few bright spots-slumped in August from July, raising the likelihood that the region's biggest economy could slip into recession this year. The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast for next year to 3.8% from a prior 4.0% estimate due to weakness in the eurozone and slowdowns in several big emerging markets. Separately, IMF head Christine Lagarde said at a news conference on Thursday that "there is a serious risk [of the eurozone falling into recession] if the right things are not done."

    Weakness overseas concerns Fed: While the U.S. economy is expected to continue strengthening in the coming months, investors are increasingly concerned that weakness overseas will hurt the bottom line of U.S. companies with global operations. Indeed, minutes released this week from the Federal Reserve's September 16-17 policy meeting showed that some Fed officials are worried that slowdowns in other countries and a stronger dollar will hurt U.S. exports and dampen the recovery. Given that the stronger dollar helps keep inflation in check, the minutes provided new reassurance that the Fed would not move too quickly in raising short-term interest rates from near-zero levels.

    .

    .
    • Job openings at U.S. workplaces jumped up to 4.84 million in August -- the most since January 2001 -- from 4.61 million in July, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Tuesday. Compared with same period in the prior year, August's job openings rose 23%, as private-sector openings increased 23% to 4.38 million, and government positions rose to 453,000 from 373,000. With 9.59 million unemployed people in August, there were about two potential job seekers per opening, below July's ratio of 2.1.
    • Stagnation in Europe and a weaker-than-forecast recovery in Japan has led the International Monetary Fund to again cut its global growth outlook, according to forecasts released Tuesday. The IMF now sees 2014 global growth of 3.3% and 2015 growth of 3.8%, a decline of 0.1% for 2014 and 0.2% for 2015 from forecasts made in July. That comes even as the IMF became more optimistic about U.S. prospects this year, with an upgrade of 0.5%, to 2.2% growth. U.S. growth is still seen at 3.1% next year. Accommodative monetary policy, favorable financial conditions, strengthened household balance sheets and a healthier housing market are all expected to support growth in the U.S., the IMF said. By contrast, the IMF sees a weak recovery in the euro area. There’s not just divergence between crisis economies, but even within those groupings, as Spain has seen growth resume, while Italy is not expected to return to positive growth until next year. The IMF sees a 30% chance the euro area will re-enter recession. Japan was hurt by the April consumption tax hike, and in China, growth is seen moderating from its breakneck pace.
    .

    .
    "Click Here" to view a Slide Show of Drought Monitor maps for the last 12 weeks
    .
    .

    Drought lingers across the southern Plains while heavy rains soaked many states in the northern tier of the region over the last week.

    According to the Drought Monitor report, 21 percent of Oklahoma and11 percent of Texas are currently in extreme drought – untouched by this week’s large, slow-moving storm that drenched portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana with as much as 6 inches of rain, leading to localized flooding.

    While the rain proves welcome to keep the drought at bay, farmers across the Corn Belt will welcome warmer temperatures over the next week though the remnants of Tropical Storm Simon may slow harvest further as it treks across the central and southern Plains.

    .

    .
    Looking Ahead:
    .
    • For the period October 9-14, temperatures are expected to remain well above normal (3-6 degrees) across most of the West. Temperatures could prove to be even hotter across the Gulf Coast region and the Mid-Atlantic, with temperatures as high as 9 degrees above the norm. The Central Plains, Midwest and the Great Lakes regions are expecting to see much cooler than normal weather, with readings 3-6 degrees below normal. As for precipitation, one place expecting to see good precipitation is the coastal ranges of Washington. The major rainmaker, however, is expected to come from the remnants of Tropical Storm Simon trekking across the Desert Southwest (southern Arizona and New Mexico), central and southern Plains, Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and the Northeast. Totals are expected to range anywhere from 2 to 5 inches over widespread areas that are currently under the grip of drought.
    • Looking out a bit further at the 6-10-day time frame (October 14-18), the models are showing a greater likelihood of above-normal temperatures for virtually all of the contiguous United States, with the exception being the Pacific Northwest. The prospects for this unseasonable warmth are quite strong in the West, western Plains and Atlantic Coast. Southern Alaska is the only place that is expecting below-normal temperatures during this period. All areas except northern Alaska are also expected to be below normal on the precipitation side of things. For the Lower 48, the Pacific Northwest and eastern third of the country are showing better odds of above-normal precipitation. The Four Corners region and the central and southern Plains show a stronger tendency of being below normal with regard to the wet stuff.
    .

    .
    .

    .
    Opaque -- The New Description for the Fed Markets:
    .
    Private treaty transactions are private by nature. Two parties convening and agreeing to the terms of a trade are as old as commerce. There is no inherent right or privilege granted to others to confirm or validate the transactions. For years cattle traded between two parties and the terms were disclosed only by one of the parties, by voluntary submission or by the rumor mill.

    Public auctions are the opposite. There are available for everyone to confirm and validate every transaction because you can look and see the results. Auction sales of cattle are the height of transparency. Forgetting some of the games played in some of the bidding, the final result is a reliable market test.

    Mandatory Price Reporting was an attempt to make the fed markets transparent. It did for a while but it is failing now. Large staffs are now collecting data on daily and week market information that is largely meaningless in identifying important price points going into the making of the fed markets. The law is being sabotaged by participants in a totally legal manner.

    The new approach by the processors for purchasing cattle is the basis trade. Cattle are purchased at premiums or discounts to the CME live cattle trading contracts. Contracts are for spot and forward cattle will all be reported as basis trades to Mandatory price reporting but since all holsteins, Mexicans, and other off spec cattle are included, the reports each week consolidate the results rendering the results meaningless. 

    Most harmed are the formula sellers and the grid sellers both deriving their base price from reported trades. Packers can purchase cattle at premium prices using the basis trades or the $1-2 over the top [rendered as a formula] and not have these transaction impact their formula pricing. This has the potential for ending some formula trading.

    In the final analysis, this has the likelihood of moving market reporting back to the stone ages of rumors and "talk", all far short of confirmed or validated trades. Did they really get $4 over Dec for the November cattle or not. No one can prove it one way or another.

    Ag Center Cattle Report

    .

    .
    Feedyard Closeouts: Profit/(Loss)
    .
    • Typical closeout for steers sold this week & hedged when placed on feed: ($84.94)
    • Typical closeoudot for un-hedged steers sold this week: $278.27
    • Projected closeout based on the futures & estimated Cost of Gain for steers placed on feed this week: ($41.50)
    .
    .

    .
    Slaughter Cattle:
    .
    Friday trading and demand have been moderate in the Northern Plains. In Nebraska, when compared to last week, live sales sold 3.00 to 5.00 higher at 165.00. Dressed sales sold 6.00 higher at 258.00. In Colorado live sales sold 2.00 higher at 165.00. In the Western Cornbelt thus far for Friday saw trading slow on moderate demand. When compared to Thursday the last reported market live sales sold steady to 1.00 higher from 163.00 to 164.00. Dressed sales sold steady with Thursday at 258.00. For Friday in the Southern Plains trading has been mostly inactive with very light demand. In Kansas dressed sales sold at 163.50. However, the last reported market in the Texas Panhandle and Kansas was on Thursday with live sales at 164.00.
     
    Livestock Slaughter under Federal Inspection:
                                          CATTLE   CALVES    HOGS          SHEEP
    Friday 10/10/2014        (est)    100,000       2,000       378,000         6,000
    Week ago (est)                       108,000       2,000      409,000         8,000
    Year ago (act)                        110,000       3,000       421,000         6,000
    Week to date (est)                  550,000     10,000    2,080,000       40,000
    Same Period Last Week (est)  564,000     10,000    2,050,000       41,000
    Same Period Last Year (act)    590,000     14,000    2,152,000       40,000

    Saturday 10/11/2014      (est)    12,000         0            56,000         0
    Week ago (est)                        13,000         0            40,000          3,000
    Year ago (act)                          19,000         0          128,000          1,000
    Week to date (est)                  562,000      10,000   2,136,000       40,000
    Same Period Last Week (est)  577,000      10,000   2,090,000       44,000
    Same Period Last Year* (act)   609,000     15,000   2,281,000       41,000
    2014 Year to Date               23,385,000   453,000  81,118,000  1,643,000
    2013 *Year to Date              25,177,000   582,000  85,723,000  1,648,000
    Percent change                    -7.1%         -22.2%       -5.4%        -0.3%

    Negotiated prices paid for Slaughter Steers and Heifers:

    Live basis:            Steers                              Heifers
    Over 80% Choice    162.00-165.00 avg 163.52   162.00-165.00 avg 164.14
    65 - 80% Choice     163.00-165.00 avg 164.56   162.00-165.00 avg 164.63
    35 - 65% Choice     164.00-165.00 avg 164.86   164.00-165.00 avg 164.89
    0 - 35% Choice             -                                      - 
    Total all grades    162.00-165.00 avg 164.33   162.00-165.00 avg 164.39

    Dressed basis
    Over 80% Choice    255.00-260.00 avg 257.88   256.00-260.00 avg 257.65
    65 - 80% Choice     255.00-259.00 avg 257.36   258.00-263.50 avg 260.63
    35 - 65% Choice     257.00-263.50 avg 258.34   258.00-263.50 avg 260.77
    0 - 35% Choice             -                                    - 
    Total all grades    255.00-263.50 avg 257.74   256.00-263.50 avg 259.43

     

    .

    .
    Corn Crop Harvest:
    .
    Just 17 percent of the nation’s corn has been harvested, according to the USDA’s latest Crop Progress report. This week’s report puts harvest progress just 5 percentage points above last week’s report and 15 percentage points behind the five-year average.

    With few exceptions, most states made little progress in harvest corn. A powerful cold front brought heavy rains and near- or at-freezing temperatures that kept farmers from the fields.

    Even Corn Belt powerhouse states, such as Iowa, struggled to make headway with their harvest over the last week. Currently 5 percent of Iowa's corn has been harvested - 21 percentage points below the state's five-year average.

    Corn conditions, however, were slightly improved this week. Twenty-four percent of corn is in excellent condition, compared to 23 percent last week.

    .

    .
    National Grain Summary:
    .
    Grain and soybean bids were lower with wheat trading mixed.  The USDA listed corn yield up 2.5 bushels per acre to a national average of 174.2 bushel per acre.  Soybean yield increased by 1/2 a bushel per acre to an average of 47.1 bushels nationally.
      Corn Futures Summary: Corn futures proved vulnerable after USDA’s Crop Production and Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports on Friday, down as much as 3 percent, ending the streak of gains in seven sessions. USDA further revised the production upward by 80 million bushels to 14.475 billion bushels from September’s number. The record forecast was in line with trade expectations. December corn futures plummeted 10.75 cents to close $3.34/bushel Friday afternoon, while May dropped 10.75 cents to $3.60.

      Soybean Futures Summary: Although USDA raised the crop production, the increases were not as large as many expected. The soybean market gave a bullish response right after the UDSA numbers. However, that rally was only temporarily as large hedge pressure turned the prices much lower. At the close time, prices fell 2.1%. Soyoil and soybean meal futures followed the downturn and ended lower. November soybean futures tumbled 19.50 cents to $9.225/bushel while December soyoil sagged 0.57 cents to 32.44 cents/pound, and December soymeal dropped $2.50 at $311.0.

      Wheat Futures Summary: The wheat markets moved higher on Friday. Wheat futures slumped in concert with corn and soybeans Thursday night, but bounced prior to the reports. That strength reportedly reflected hopes for strong U.S. participation in a fresh Egyptian wheat tender. The USDA report sent the markets even higher. USDA cut the ending stocks to 654 million bushel from September at 698 million bushels, whereas traders had generally expected a slight increase in stocks. December CBOT wheat jumped 5.25 cents to $4.895/bushel Friday, while December KC wheat surged 5.00 cents to $5.7775/bushel, and December MWE wheat declined 0.25 to $5.5325.

    Weekly export sales for corn came above expectations at 30.9 mb (784,000 mt), with all for the 2014-2015 marketing year.  Export sales for soybeans were bullish coming in at 33.1 mb (901,900 mt) with 33.9 mb (923,400 mt) for the 2014-2015 marketing year.  Wheat export sales were listed at 13.7 mb (741,000 mt), with all for the 2014-2015 marketing year. This was considered bullish.  Wheat was mostly 10-14 cents lower.  Corn was mostly 1-6 cents higher. Sorghum was 2 cents higher.  Soybeans were mostly7-14 cents higher.
     

    Weekly Corn Sales Data:

    Corn: Net sales of 784,800 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (230,400 MT)

    • Japan (168,900 MT, including 128,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 10,600 MT), Peru (157,300 MT), Colombia (62,100 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and South Korea (61,900 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,100 MT). Decreases were reported for Israel (20,400 MT), Costa Rica (16,900 MT), and Canada (3,500 MT). Net sales reductions of 800 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Mexico. Exports of 978,100 MT were primarily Mexico (253,200 MT), Japan (243,400 MT), Colombia (100,300 MT), Peru (96,500 MT), and South Korea (63,400 MT).
    .

    .
    .
    .
    Five Year Moving Average - Corn & Wheat
    .
    .
    .

    .
    Your Suggestions:
    .
    Our goal is for the Weekly Market Summary to provide a condensed, yet comprehensive, overview of the week's cattle market.  If you have a suggestion that would enhance the summary, use the link below to submit your suggestion. If we implement it, we'll send you a Cattle Range Knife as a token of our appreciation.
     
  • Submit Your Suggestion

  • .
    Although the information contained in this Market Summary is from sources believed to be accurate and timely, THE CATTLE RANGE EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY OF THE CONTENT PROVIDED, OR AS TO THE FITNESS OF THE INFORMATION FOR ANY PURPOSE.
    .
    Copyright © TM - The Cattle Range - All Rights Reserved
    .