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Weekly Market Summary
For the week ending July 21, 2017
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The Cattle Range Market Trendlines:
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This week's roller coaster market action ended with a steady to slightly lower close for most market indicators compared to last week.  Data contained within several reports in this summary confirm that increased beef supplies are in the pipeline for the balance of 2017 and 2018, leaving demand for beef the only variable in the price equation.  Demand in 2017 has been strong and don't be surprised if it continues to exceed expectations. 
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10 Day Market Trendline
Change from Previous Day: +1.34%
 Change from 10 Days Ago: +2.88%
Change from 60 Days Ago: -12.79%
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60 Day Market Trendline
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The Trendlines are indicators of overall cattle/beef market strength and are based on daily market factors.  Each daily factor is the aggregate weighted total of the Gain/(Loss) for 12 market indicators compared to the previous trading day. The angle indicates direction & velocity of the trend.
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  • View previous Summaries in the..WMS Archives

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  • For daily news, check TCR's Cattle Industry News
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    Regular Contents: 
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  • Weekly Market Overview.
  • National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary.
  • Stocker & Feeder Steers.
  • Stocker & Feeder Cattle Weekly Receipts.
  • 5 Year Moving Avg. - Stocker, Feeder, & Slaughter Steers.
  • Selected Auction Reports.
  • Direct Sales of Feeder & Stocker Cattle.
  • Representative Sales of Cow & Pairs.
  • Canadian Cattle.
  • USDA National Retail Beef Report.
  • Photo of the Week.
  • Shootin' the Bull Weekly Analysis.
  • U.S. Dollar - 6 Month Chart.
  • Choice Boxed Beef Cutout, Slaughter, & Feeder Steers.
  • Feeder Steers/Corn Correlation.
  • Slaughter Cows & Bulls.
  • Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection.
  • Weekly Hay Reports.
  • Weekly Feedstuffs Market Review.
  • Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Cattle & Corn.
  • Stock Markets & Economic News.
  • Weather Outlook.
  • Feedyard Closeouts: Profit/(Loss).
  • Slaughter Cattle.
  • Corn Crop Condition.
  • National Grain Summary.
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    Of Possible Interest:  The views expressed in the content below are included in the WMS because we found them to be of interest but do not necessarily reflect the views of The Cattle Range.
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    Weekly Market Overview:
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    On-Line Store
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    National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary:
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    RECEIPTS: Auctions   Direct  Video/Internet     Total
    This Week     121,300     67,100       234,900         423,300
    Last Week     150,700     81,200       138,200         370,100
    Last Year       105,700     50,600       265,100         421,400

    Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold 3.00 to 6.00 higher with some instances 8.00 to 10.00 higher. In many ways, this week was one long waiting game; waiting for the futures market to move in a clear direction, waiting for fat cattle trade to be established, and waiting for Friday’s release of both the USDA Cattle Inventory and the Cattle on Feed reports. Several days of up and down, triple digit moves this week at the CME; big, volatile moves in the futures markets have become commonplace again and while that often takes confidence out of the market, order buyers were able to shake off the uncertainty and still pay up some high prices, especially for yearling type cattle.

    In the north, farmer feeders are driving the market, particularly for big strings of big yearlings, and especially for those of one raising.  One didn’t have to look too hard to find some impressive prices this week as yearlings sold with excellent demand all over cattle country, regardless of whether the Board was sharply higher or significantly lower that particular day. On Wednesday at Green City Livestock in Green City, MO, a load of 866 lb steers sold at 158.00 and on Thursday at Farmers and Ranchers Livestock Commission in Salina, KS, a load of 1006 lb steers sold at 146.10. Also on Thursday at Valentine Livestock in Valentine, NE, a load of NHTC steers weighing 734 lbs rang the bell at 184.00. A high pressure system, quickly nicknamed the "Ring of Fire", moved into the Midwest early to midweek, causing temperatures and humidity to skyrocket, and brought some extreme weather to the areas on the perimeter of the system. With the temperature and the heat index climbing daily, it would not be unusual or unexpected to see lower markets this time of year.

    The heat is hard on all sectors of the beef market, from handling and shipping cattle to feedlots trying to keep pounds on market ready animals. Feeder cattle buyers are often hesitant to take ownership of cattle during extreme heat and humidity as anything that isn’t already straightened out will sure have a hard time adjusting to a new home even under the best of circumstances. Multiple reports trickled in through the week that any cattle carrying extra hair were subject to discount, but otherwise, demand remained very good despite the high heat. The temperatures did contribute to a little run up in the grain markets this week, certainly something all market participants will keep an eye on, especially if the hot, dry weather stretches out for an extended period of time. With the exception of some dry pockets, another good crop is in the making. 

    Corn growers sprayed a lot of preventative fungicide this week, further evidence that they are seeing a good crop in the field. In some regions of corn country the stalks are said to be so close a rabbit couldn’t squeeze between them. Of course, we are still a long way from harvest with plenty of summer left to go. Feedlot trade occurred shortly after lunch Friday with live sales reported in all regions at 120.00, steady with last week. Dressed sales in Nebraska quoted unevenly steady at 189.00 to 192.00 as most of the feedlot trade occurred prior to 2:00 PM. Cattle on Feed was released this afternoon with numbers that were above industry estimates with on feed totaling 104 percent, placed on feed during June at 116 percent, and fed cattle marketed in June at 104 percent.  USDA NASS's July 1 Cattle Inventory report released today tallied all cattle and calves at 103 million head, 4 percent above the previous July report released in 2015. Beef replacement heifers, at 4.70 million head, are down 2 percent from two years ago. The 2017 calf crop is expected to be 36.4 million head, up 3 percent from last year's calf crop and 6 percent above 2015. Auction volume this week included 55 percent weighing over 600 lbs and 38 percent heifers.

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    Stocker Steers:
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    Feeder Steers:
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    Stocker & Feeder Cattle Weekly Receipts:
    Weekly sales of Stocker Calves & Feeder Cattle sold via auctions, direct country sales, and video/Internet sales as reported by the UDSA Market News
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    Five Year Moving Average - Stocker, Feeder, & Slaughter Steers:
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    Cattle Futures Summary: Live cattle futures finished the day with most contracts 7.5 to 55 cents in the green. Feeder cattle futures were also 50 to $1.10 in the green on Friday. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.81 on July 20 to $149.03. Wholesale beef prices were lower in the afternoon report, with choice boxes down 74 cents at $206.91 and select 78 cents lower at $194.80. Week to date estimated FI cattle slaughter is 622,000 head through Saturday, 7,000 below last week and 25,000 above the same week last year. Cash trade was even with last week and higher from earlier this week at $119.50 to $120.50 across most regions. The USDA showed cattle on feed July 1 at 10.821 million head, a 4.49% jump over last year, with June placements of 1.77 million head 16.07% larger than 2016. Both of those were well above the trade guess. June marketings were lower than expectations at 1.989 million head, up 4.03% from last year. The Cattle Inventory report indicated all cattle and calves at 102.6 million head, 4.5% larger than the last July report in 2015. The Beef cow inventory was at 32.5 million head, 6.6% larger than 2015, with heifers for replacement down 2.1% from two years ago at 4.7 million head.
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    Selected Auction Reports:
    "Click" on individual.auction links.for complete report
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    Green Forest Livestock Auction - Green Forest AR
    Receipts:  768    Last Week:  741    Year Ago:  1042
    Compared to one week earlier, slaughter cows and bulls mostly steady, feeder steers 2.00 to 5.00 higher, steer calves mostly steady, feeder bulls and bull calves 1.00 to 5.00 higher,

    El Reno Cattle Narrative - El Reno OK
                                    Receipts          Week Ago             Year Ago
    Total Receipts:          8476                 8,866                    5,676
    Feeder Cattle:     8,476(100%)     8,866(100%)      5,676(1000%)
    ***Final Report***   Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold 4.00 to mostly 6.00 higher, feeder heifers traded 3.00 to 5.00 higher.  Steer and heifer calves were to lightly tested for an accurate market trend, however a higher undertone was noted.

    Tulia Livestock Auction - Tulia TX
    Receipts:  1699    Last Week:  1829    Year Ago:  1309
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers sold steady to 3.00 higher.  Trade activity was moderate to good on good demand.  Dog days of summer have arrived and most of the panhandle is in much need of rain.

    Cullman Stockyard - Cullman AL
    Receipts:  887    Last Week:  1017    Year Ago:  680
    Compared to last week: Slaughter cows sold steady, slaughter bulls sold steady. Feeder bulls and steers sold 2.00 to 4.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold 1.00 to 3.00 higher. Replacement cows and pairs sold mostly steady.

    Pratt Livestock Feeder Cattle Auction - Pratt, KS
    Receipts:  2285    Last Week:  1882    Year Ago:  984
    Compared to last week's light test: Feeder steers 3.00-6.00 higher on a light test of Medium and Large 1; Feeder heifers firm to higher undertone noted on a light supply of Medium and Large 1. Not enough steer and heifer calves for a market test.

    Oklahoma National Stockyards - Oklahoma City OK
                                 Receipts           Week Ago            Year Ago
    Total Receipts:       5,428                 5,329                   5,163
    Feeder Cattle:   5,428(100%)     5,329(100%)      5,163(100%)
    ***Add Close Updating With Actual Receipts*** Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers 4.00-8.00 higher.  Steer and heifer calves lightly tested and few sales 4.00-10.00 higher.   Demand good to very good for most all classes.

    Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg - Carthage MO
                                    Receipts           Week Ago         Year Ago
    Total Receipts:         3,326                5,088                2,512
    Feeder Cattle:    3,326(100%)     5,088(100%)    2,512(100%)
    ***MID-SESSION/CLOSE***   Compared to last week, steer calves  and yearlings 4.00 to 7.00 higher and heifer calves steady.  Demand moderate to mostly good, supply light.   The hot, humid weather has curtailed the receipts.

    Blue Grass South Livestock Market - Stanford KY
    Receipts:  727    Last Week:  910    Year Ago:  734
    Compared to last Monday:Feeder steers and heifers mostly steady,Good demand for feeder classes.Slaughter cows 3.00-5.00 lower,Slaughter bulls 1.00-2.00 lower,Good demand for slaughter classes.

    Clovis Livestock Auction - Clovis NM
    Receipts:  1142            Week Ago: 2539           Year Ago: 953
    Compared to a week ago:  Feeder stars and heifers steady to 3.00 lower except 400-500 lbs instances 8.00-10.00 lower.  Slaughter cows steady to 2.00 lower; bulls mostly steady.

    Cattleman's Livestock Auction - Dalhart, TX
    Cattle and Calves: 1399      Week ago: 1748      Year Ago:  721
    Compared to last week:  Steer and heifer calves under 600 lbs firm, instances 2.00 higher.  Feeder steers and heifers over 600 lbs firm to 3.00 higher.  Supply included several loads of yearling feeders coming off grass pastures.

    Valentine Livestock Auction Market - Valentine NE
    Receipts:  3600   Two weeks ago: 3000  Last year: 0
    Compared with two weeks ago 700 to 950 lbs steers traded unevenly steady and no comparable offerings for heifers, a trend will not be given.  Demand was good with several buyers today on a very hot and humid day.

    Toppenish, WA Livestock Auction - Toppenish WA
    Receipts:  1840    Last Week:  1430    Year Ago:  1250
    Compared to last Thursday at the same market, not enough stocker or feeder cattle last week for accurate trends. Trade active with good demand. Slaughter cows 3.00-5.00 lower as supply exceeds demand. Slaughter bulls steady. Trade active with light to moderate demand.

    Sioux Falls Regional Livestock wtd Avg Report - Worthing SD
    Receipts:  1592    Last Week:  717    Year Ago:  2418
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers too lightly tested last week to offer a full, complete comparison with this week, higher undertones evident for all weights and classes.

    Farmers & Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. - Salina KS
    Receipts:  3599    Last Week:  2605    Year Ago:  2475
    Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers sold 2.00 to 4.00 higher with the full advance on the feeder heifers. Despite little board support the market held strong. Many buyers and producers filled the seats on a hot day to evaluate the numerous reputation load lots of reputation cattle coming off grass.

    Russell Wtd Avg Feeder Cattle Auction - Russell IA
    Receipts:  1297
    No comparison as sale not reported for 3 weeks: Trade Active and Demand Good today. Receipts this week included 59 percent feeder cattle over 600 lbs; 59 percent of the feeders were strs and 41 percent were hfrs.

    Mitchell Livestock Wtd Avg Report - Mitchell SD
    Receipts:  3058    Two Weeks Ago:  3827    Year Ago:  1147
    Compared to two weeks ago:  Feeder steers under 900 lbs 5.00 to 8.00 higher in a narrow comparison, steers over 900 lbs steady to 3.00 higher.  Feeder heifers 3.00 to 5.00 higher.  Good demand for this large offering of high quality yearling steers and heifers.

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    Direct Sales of Feeder & Stocker Cattle:
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    WY, Western NE & Western Dakotas Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
    Receipts: 3,640        Week Ago: 4,185     Year Ago: 979
    Compared to last week, current delivered steers traded 5.00 higher on a thin test. Demand was good this week with several buyers participating. Hot weather continues to prevail in the reporting regions but some areas are to cool down next week.

    AZ-CA-NV Weekly Feeder Cattle Review (Fri)
    Confirmed: 0 
    Compared to last week, Trade inactive, demand light.  Calf raisers and feedlots are at a stand off.  Trade may resume late next week after video auction.  Cattle weighing over 600 lbs totaled 0 percent. Heifers totaled 0 percent.

    IA-South MN Direct Feeder Cattle Weekly (Mon)
    Receipts:  253     Last Week:  347     Last Year: 432
    Compared to the last week:  Feeder steers and heifers not established last week, therefor no trend available.  Prices based on net weights FOB after a 3 percent shrink or equivalent and 5-10 cent slide on calves and 4-6 cent slide on yearlings from base weights.

    Colorado Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
    Receipts: 6,986        Last Week 6,098        Last Year 3,282 
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers not well tested on a Current FOB basis.  Demand moderate to good.  Supply consisted of  94 percent over 600 lbs; 20 percent heifers.

    Kansas Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
    Receipts:  5991    Last Week:  15308    Year Ago:  3780
    Compared with last week: Steers 5.00-8.00 higher; heifers no comparison with last week, however a higher undertone noted. Many of this weeks receipts are from the Flint Hills region of the state. A significant number of feeder cattle will be moving out of the Flint Hills from present to mid-August.

    Montana Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
    Receipts: 618          Last Week 2,296        Last Year: 0 
    Compared to last week:  No trend available for feeder steers and heifers due to last weeks no Current FOB trades.  Supply included 55percent over 600 lbs; 18 percent heifers.

    New Mexico Feeder Cattle Report (Mon)
    Receipts:  2000    Last Week:  6100    Year Ago:  4700
    Compared to last week:  Not enough Current FOB sales of steers or heifers for an adequate market trend.  Trade activity was slow to moderate on light demand.  Supply consisted of 9 percent steers and 91 percent heifers.  Near 76 percent of the offering weighed over 600 lbs.

    Northwest Wtd Avg Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
    Receipts:  4300    Last Week:  4250    Year Ago:  2350
    Compared to last week, feeder cattle firm to 4.00 higher. Trade moderate with good demand. Futures prices fell in a continuation of the see-saw action each day this week. Structurally the futures have changed with a spot month discount and flat premiums of a couple dollars for the balance of the year.

    Oklahoma Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
    Receipts: 4,616        Last Week 3,823        Last Year 4,371 
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers lightly tested last week on a current FOB basis so no trend was available.  Weather has turned extremely hot and humid and pastures are beginning to lose their green.

    Texas Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
    Receipts:  37,400    Last Week:  33,000    Year Ago:  34,400
    Compared to last week:  Steers and heifers sold mostly 2.00 to 4.00 higher.  Trade was active on good demand.  Price spreads were not as wide this week since the cattle futures did not have any 
    major jumps or declines.
     

  • Extensive U.S. & Canadian Auction Results are available on The Cattle Range
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    Representative Sales of Cows & Pairs:
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    Reported by.USDA Market News for the week ending July 21st:
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    • Video: 
      • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2 South Central 4-5 year old 1200 lb cows July delivery 1st trimester 1325.00-1335.00.  North Central 2-10 year old 1250-1400 lb cow Current delivery 3rd trimester 1650.00-1925.00. 
    • El Reno, OK:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-4 yr old 1100-1250 lbs 3-8 months bred 1150.00-1375.00; 5-8 yr old 1100-1400 lbs 4-8 months bred 975.00-1250.00 per pair. 
      • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-8 yr old 1200-1275 lb cow w/100-175 lbs calf 1375.00-1475.00; pkg 5 yr old 1175 lb cow w/100 lb calf 1750.00 per pair. 
    • Oklahoma City, OK:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  1-6 yr old 825-1275 lbs 1-6 months bred 850.00-1125.00; 2-6 yr old 925-1500 lbs 4-7 months bred 1200.00-1550.00; 7-10 yr old 1050-1375 lbs 1-7 months bred 810.00-1060.00; pkg 10 yr old 1600 lb 7 month bred black 1160.00 per head. 
      • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2 pkg 2 yr old 1200 lb cow w/125 lb calf 1275.00 per pair. 
    • Woodard, OK:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  6-9 yr old 1400-1475 lbs 2-8 months bred black 1010.00-1260.00; 6-8 yr old 1125-1350 lbs 2-4 yr old 975.00-1025.00 per head. 
      • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  2 yr old 900-1150 lb black cow w/100-200 lb calf 1775.00-1935.00 per pair. 
    • Clovis, NM:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 990-1315 lb cows 1-8 months bred 825.00-1085.00, per head; middle aged 1100-1335 lb cows 6-8 months bred 925.00-930.00, per head; aged indiv 1210 lb cow 6-8 months bred 925.00, per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 815-1100 lb cows w/125-250 lb calves 1000.00-1400.00, per pair; middle aged indiv 1060 lb cow w/225 lb calf 985.00, per pair.
    • Roswell, NM:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 800-1210 lb cows 1-8 months bred 835.00-1100.00, per head; middle aged 870-1300 lb cows 1-8 months bred 775.00-925.00, per head.  First Calf Heifers: 710-945 lb cows 3-8 months bred 700.00-975.00, per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 825-1215 lb cows w/125-300 lb calves 1050.00-1500.00, per pair; middle aged 950-1175 lb cows w/180-225 lb calves 1050.00-1200.00, per pair; aged 950-1175 lb cows w/125-250 lb calves 900.00-1100.00, per pair.
    • Pratt, KS:
      • Medium and Large 1-2 2nd trimester 4 head 1171 lbs 1425.00; 5 head 3rd trimester 1108 lbs 1500.00.  Large 2 Aged 5 head 1332 lbs 3rd trimester 1180.00; 7 head 1325 lbs 3rd trimester 1000.00 all per head. 
      • Cow-Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2  5 head 998 lbs young 1650.00 with 150-200 lbs calves. Middle Aged 27 head 1104 lbs 1760.00-1785.00 (1773.87) with 150-200 lbs calves. Large 1-2 21 head 1379 lbs 1675.00 with 200 lbs calves. Large 2 14 head 1350 lbs 1250.00-1350.00 (1309.01) with 150-200 lbs calves all per pair. 
    • Joplin, MO:
      • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-6 yrs. 2nd-3rd stage 985-1400 lbs 1100.00-1475.00 per head; few 7 yrs.-short and solid 2nd-3rd stage 1000.00-1100.00 per head; few 2-7 yrs. 1st period 1125-1250 lbs 950.00-1285.00 per head. 
      • Cow-Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2  6 yrs.-short and solid 1375-1450 lbs with 150-350 lbs calves 1325.00-1460.00 per pair. Medium and Large 2  2 yrs.-short and solid 1050-1150 lbs with newborn-300 lbs calves 1000.00-1275.00 per pair. 
    • Springfield, MO:
      • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1  2-7 yrs 1075-1475 lbs 2nd to 3rd stage 1100.00-1500.00 per head. Medium and Large 1-2  1 1/2 – 5 yrs 1025-1280 lbs 2nd to 3rd stage 1050.00-1375.00, 1st stage 935.00-1225.00; 6 yrs to short and solid mouth 1180-1424 lbs 2nd to 3rd stage 1000.00-1250.00; short and solid to broken mouth 2nd to 3rd stage 1000-1388 lbs 850.00-1100.00 per head. Large 1-2  3 yrs to short solid mouth 1203-1638 lbs 2nd to 3rd stage 1100.00-1260.00 per head. Medium 1-2  3 yrs to short solid mouth 910-1033 2nd stage 900.00-1100.00 per head. Medium and Large 2  2-6 yrs 935-993 lbs 2nd to 3rd stage 1025.00-1275.00, 1st stage 975.00-1175.00; 7 yrs to short solid 1020-1378 lbs 1st to 3rd stage 925.00-1200.00 per head. Medium and Large 2-3  pkg 2-3 yrs 770 lbs 1st to 2nd stage 1125.00 per head.  Medium 2-3  pkg 2 yrs 788 lbs 2nd stage 1000.00 per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  1 1/2 -7 yrs 1050-1325 lbs with 150-450 lbs calves few rebred 1475.00-2050.00; short solid mouth 1000-1250 lbs with 120-375 lbs calves 1200.00-1300.00, few rebred 1800.00 per pair. Medium and Large 2  2 yrs to short solid mouth 905-1200 lbs with 150-300 lbs calves 1375.00-1500.00 per pair.  Medium and Large 2-3  3-5 yrs 850-975 lbs with newborn to 200 lbs calves, few rebred 1400.00-1425.00 per pair. Medium and Large 3  2-3 yrs 700-750 lbs with 150-200 lbs calves, few rebred 1st stage 1300.00 per pair. Medium 1-2  1 1/2 -2 yrs 715-1050 lbs with newborn to 200 lbs calves 900.00-1250.00 per pair.  Medium 2-3  700 lbs with 150 lbs calves 1225.00 per pair.
    • West Plains, MO:
      • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-7 yr old 988-1675 lb cows in the 2nd to 3rd stage 1150.00-1400.00 per head; 1st stage 1075.00-1150.00 per head; 7 yrs to short-solid mouth 1275-1410 lb cows in the 2nd to 3rd stage 1125.00-1250.00 per head.   Medium and Large 2   2-6 yr old 740-1175 lb cows in the 2nd to 3rd stage 925.00-1150.00 per head, 1st stage 800.00-1050.00; 7 yrs to short-solid mouth 990-1125 lb cows in the 2nd to 3rd stage 875.00-1050.00 per head. 
      • Cow-Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-6 yr old 965-1235 lb cows with 200-250 lb calves 1200.00-1550.00 per pair; Short-solid mouth 1225-1295 lb cows with 100-200 lb calves 1250.00-1425.00 per pair.  3-n-1 pkgs 2-4 yr old 900-1059 lb cows in the 1st stage with 300 lb calves 1575.00-1750.00 per pair.  Medium and Large 2  4-7 yr old 875-1100 lb cows with 75-200 lb calves 950.00-1150.00 per pair.
    • Burwell, NE:
      • Fall Bred Cows Medium and Large 1-2  Heifers 1195-1255 lbs 1375.00-1475.00.  Young 1095-1372 lbs 1225.00-1425.00; 1415-1485 lbs 1330.00-1650.00.  Solid Mouth 1225-1255 lbs 1170.00-1285.00; 1424-1515 lbs 1350.00-1400.00; 1620 lbs 1125.00; 1841-1860 lbs 1350.00-1360.00.  Short Solid 1277 lbs 1150.00; 1508-1715 lbs 1225.00-1325.00.  Broken Mouth 1270-1276 lbs 1050.00-1100.00; 1437-1450 lbs 1150.00-1310.00.  Late Bred (Mix Aged) 1247-1263 lbs 1100.00-1110.00 all per head. 
      • Spring Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  Heifers 1112-1255 lbs 100-214 lbs calves 1675.00-1785.00.  Young 1185 lbs 95 lbs calves 1275.00; 1322-1390 lbs 200-250 lbs calves 1625.00-1900.00; 1416-1588 lbs 250-300 lbs calves 1450.00-1750.00.  Solid Mouth 1477-1590 lbs 150-250 lbs calves 1310.00-1485.00.  Short Solid 1485-1760 lbs 200-255 lbs calves 1385.00-1550.00.  Broken Mouth 1355-1485 lbs 256-300 lbs calves 1125.00-1275.00; 1518-1587 lbs 225-277 lbs calves 1390.00-1425.00.
    • Arkansas:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-7 year old 850-1250 lbs second & third stage 86.00-96.00/1025.00-1125.00, first stage open 81.00-91.00, 7-10 year old second & third stage 67.00-77.00/825.00-925.00 per head. 
      • Cow-Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-7 yr old 800-1200 lb cow w/100-300 lb calf 125.00-1400.00, few to 1600.00; 7-10 yr old 800-1200 lb cow w/100-200 lb calf 1050.00-1150.00 per pair.
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    Canadian Cattle:
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    Alberta Beef Producers: Alberta direct cattle sales so far this week have seen light trade develop with bids unchanged from Wednesday to Thursday. Dressed sales have been reported from 240.00-243.00 delivered. Sales are fully steady with the previous week. Cattle that were bought this week were being scheduled for the 1st half of August delivery. Cash to futures basis levels did strengthen and remain stronger than the five-year average.

    Cattle market information below is from Canfax, a division of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association. More market information, analysis and statistics are available by becoming a Canfax subscriber by calling 403-275-5110 or at www.canfax.ca.

    Fed cattle edge higher

    The fed steer weighted average was $144.17 per hundredweight, up 92 cents. There was no average for heifers during a quiet week.

    The U.S. fed cash and futures market traded higher, leading Canadian producers to expect higher prices. However, the impact was muted here.

    A large part of the show list was carried over.

    U.S. bids for Canadian cattle worked back close to local prices.

    There were reports of prairie cattle going to Guelph, Ont., for slaughter.

    The Canadian dollar rose as the Bank of Canada raised interest rates.

    The Alberta cash-to-futures basis weakened about $1 per cwt. and is now slightly weaker than the five-year July average.

    Alberta packers aggressively processed cattle. The July holiday-week slaughter was more than 40,000 head.

    Last year, the holiday-shortened week was about 7,000 less.

    Packers are expected to schedule Saturday kills through the summer.

    Exports ran below a year ago through most of the first half of the year, but they have now caught up and are slightly higher than last year.

    The stronger loonie and ample fed supplies will restrict upside price potential.

    Some price stability may be warranted after the major price decline from the spring highs, but downside risk still remains.

    Cows steady

    D1, D2 cows ranged $100-$116 to average $107, down only 33 cents.

    D3 cows ranged $90-$102 to average $95.88. Rail grade cows ranged $200-$206.

    Fed cattle prices have recently moved below year-ago levels, while cow prices are sitting $10-$12 higher than last year.

    D1, D2 cows are trading within $5 of the highs set in early June.

    Alberta D1, D2 cash cows have been trading at a $15-$16 premium over the U.S. utility cow market.

    Non-fed production should be nearing a seasonal low. This should lend support to the 85 percent trim market.

    It is common to see trim values rally into the summer.

    Feeders lower

    The feeder market was lightly tested and prices were lower on smaller lot sizes and varying quality.

    With a lot of light calves placed on feed January to May, yearling supplies should be snug into August and September.

    Depending on when grass cattle were bought, there has been opportunity to forward contract grass yearlings at a reasonable profit.

    More yearlings have likely been forward contracted this year than last year.

    Many producers retained ownership of their grass yearlings last year and put them on feed in smaller custom lots or backgrounding lots to have them finished.

    The yearlings that were sold in the first quarter of 2017 saw historically large profit margins.

    Because this strategy worked last year, some might want to gamble again on retaining ownership this year.

    Assuming more yearlings are contracted and producers again try retained ownership, competition could be stout on what is expected to be an historically tight yearling supply. Cow-calf pairs traded $1,800 to $3,050.

    Barley price rises

    As feed barley prices rise sharply, Western Canada might lose its feed cost advantage over the United States. There are reports that barley for quick delivery are just shy of $4.50 per bushel delivered into southern Alberta.

    New crop barley bids are $4.50 to $4.70 for fall delivery in southern Alberta.

    Cattle on feed

    Feedlot supply in Alberta and Saskatchewan as of July 1 rose five percent from last year to 789,835 head. That was four percent above the five-year average.

    Placements in June were 64,534, up five percent from last year. It was the fifth consecutive month of placements above year ago levels.

    More of the placements were light cattle under 700 pounds. That category was more than double last year, while those heavier than 700 lb. were down two percent.

    The number of heifers going into feedlots was 26,481, down from 39,584 last year, while steers rose to 38,053, up from 22,003.

    However, that does not suggest herd rebuilding. For the year, heifer placements are up 10 percent over last year and up 12 percent from the five year average.

    Marketings in June were 140,520, up nine percent from last year and the largest in five years.

    U.S. beef falls
    Beef prices fell further as the dog days of summer set in.

    Choice fell more than $10 to US$209.85 per cwt. Select was down about $6.50 to $197.26.

    In four weeks Choice has fallen $40, but it is still $5 above last year at this time. The Choice Select spread has narrowed about $17 to $12.50.

    Canadian data was not available.

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    Canadian Cattle Prices:
    Prices have been converted to U.S. $/CWT. Grades changed to approximate U.S. equivalents
    Exchange Rate: Canadian dollar equivalent to $0.7849 U.S. dollars
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    Prices for the week ending July 14th:
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    The "Nord Fork"

    Replaces Flankers at Branding
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    USDA Mid-Year Cattle Inventory Report
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    July 1 Cattle Inventory Up 4 Percent from 2015
    • All cattle and calves in the United States, as of July 1, 2017, totaled 103 million head. This is 4 percent above the 98.2 million head on July 1, 2015.
    • All cows and heifers that have calved, at 41.9 million head, are 5 percent above the 39.8 million head on July 1, 2015.
      • Beef cows, at 32.5 million head, are up 7 percent from two years ago.
      • Milk cows, at 9.40 million head, are up 1 percent from 2015.
    • All heifers 500 pounds and over, as of July 1, 2017, totaled 16.2 million head. This is 3 percent above the 15.7 million head on July 1, 2015. 
      • Beef replacement heifers, at 4.70 million head, are down 2 percent from two years ago. 
      • Milk replacement heifers, at 4.20 million head, are unchanged from 2015. 
      • Other heifers, at 7.30 million head, are 9 percent above two years earlier.
    • Calves under 500 pounds in the United States, as of July 1, 2017, totaled 28.0 million head. This is 5 percent above the 26.7 million head on July 1, 2015. 
      • Steers weighing 500 pounds and over totaled 14.5 million head, up 3 percent from two years ago.
      • Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over totaled 2.00 million head, up 5 percent from 2015.
    Calf Crop Up 3 Percent from 2016
    • The 2017 calf crop in the United States is expected to be 36.3 million head, up 3 percent from last year's calf crop and up 6 percent from 2015. Calves born during the first half of 2017 are estimated at 26.5 million head. This is up 4 percent from the first half of 2016 and 8 percent above 2015. An additional 9.80 million calves are expected to be born during the second half of 2017.
    • Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 12.8 million head on July 1, 2017. The inventory is up 6 percent from the July 1, 2015 total of 12.1 million head. Cattle on feed, in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head, accounted for 84.5 percent of the total cattle on feed on July 1, 2017. This is down 0.1 percent from 2015. The combined total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds (outside of feedlots) is 37.0 million head. This is 5 percent above the 35.4 million head on July 1, 2015. 
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    Australian Analyst Predicts a Super Demand Cycle for Beef
    Glen Innes Examiner
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    Let the good times roll in agriculture, a Victorian analyst predicted at a series of meat market updates by the Local Land Services across the Northern Tablelands last week.

    Simon Quilty is the managing director of MLX Pty Ltd, a company which specialises in risk management and brokering beef swaps primarily between Australia and North America. 

    Last week the Northern Tablelands LLS brought him up from Wangaratta Victoria to speak at a series of workshops in Guyra, Walcha and Inverell to share his predictions on the impending opportunities for cattle producers in Australia.

    “If my predictions are correct then global demand could see beef prices in late 2018 rise by up to 30 per cent,” Mr Quilty said.

    An unprecedented expansion of the global middle class with a penchant for beef and seafood will see demand outpace supply as cattle numbers are currently down globally and it will take time for herd numbers to increase Mr Quilty says.

    “I think we will see a drop in prices next year but then enter a super demand era for the next four to five years, possibly  until 2030,” he said.

    “I wrote the super demand cycle paper  because over the 25 years of trading that I’ve done I kept looking at what is happening currently and I believe I’ve seen it happen five times in the last 25 years. This cycle though is particularly strong and I believe this is only the first year.”

    After the meeting, Walcha Landmark Boulton’s stock and station agent proprietor Bruce Rutherford said he thought what the numbers were indicating was quite extraordinary.

    “In the forty years I’ve been in the stock and station business I’ve never seen the likes of what is going on at the moment,” he said.

    “It would seem we are going to remain in an agricultural boom for the foreseeable future which is wonderful for rural and regional communities.”

    A super demand cycle is when supply and price increase at the same time.
    - Simon Quilty

    Mr Quilty said dry winter conditions next year and a price correction would see a drop in Australian beef prices before they rose again.

    “By mid 2019 the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) should be back at today’s levels above 600 Australian cents per kilogram or 325 Australian cents per live weight kilogram with a sustained supercycle,” Mr Quilty said.

    “How you manage your stock next year is the critical part of it and these predictions are based on no drought for Australia. If we should see drought for the next two years these predictions get much harder as a rebound in prices will be unlikely. ”

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    July Cattle on Feed Report
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    United States Cattle on Feed Up 4 Percent
    • Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.8 million head on July 1, 2017. The inventory was 4 percent above July 1, 2016. The inventory included 6.96 million steers and steer calves, up 1 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 64 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 3.86 million head, up 11 percent from 2016.
    • Placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.77 million head, 16 percent above 2016. Net placements were 1.71 million head. During June, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 375,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 315,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 430,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 385,000 head, 900-999 pounds were170,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 95,000 head.
    • Marketings of fed cattle during June totaled 1.99 million head, 4 percent above 2016. 
    • Other disappearance totaled 56,000 head during June, 8 percent below 2016. 
    • United States All Cattle on Feed Up 6 Percent from 2015 Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 12.8 million head on July 1, 2017. The inventory was up 6 percent from the July 1, 2015 total of 12.1 million head. Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head, accounted for 84.5 percent of the total cattle on feed on July 1, 2017. This is down 0.1 percent from 2015.
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    Cattle on Feed Inventory in 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots as of July 1st
    Millions of Head
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    Number of Cattle Placed on Feed in 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots in June
    Millions of Head
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    Number of Cattle Marketed from 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots in June
    Millions of Head
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    Cattle on Feed by State as of July 1st
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    USDA Livestock Slaughter Report
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    Record Total Red Meat and Pork Production for June

    Commercial red meat production for the United States totaled 4.35 billion pounds in June, up 3 percent from the 4.23 billion pounds produced in June 2016.

    • Beef production, at 2.28 billion pounds, was 4 percent above the previous year. Cattle slaughter totaled 2.86 million head, up 6 percent from June 2016. The average live weight was down 13 pounds from the previous year, at 1,321 pounds.
    • Veal production totaled 6.3 million pounds, 1 percent below June a year ago. Calf slaughter totaled 40,400 head, up 7 percent from June 2016. The average live weight was down 23 pounds from last year, at 268 pounds.
    • Pork production totaled 2.05 billion pounds, up 2 percent from the previous year. Hog slaughter totaled 9.87 millionhead, up 3 percent from June 2016. The average live weight was down 1 pound from the previous year, at 279 pound s.
    • Lamb and mutton production, at 12.4 million pounds, was down 7 percent from June 2016. Sheep slaughter totaled 188,000 head, 4 percent below last year. The average live weight was 132 pounds, down 4 pounds from June a year ago.
    January to June 2017 commercial red meat production was 25.4 billion pounds, up 4 percent from 2016.

    Accumulated beef production was up 5 percent from last year, veal was down 2 percent, pork was up 3 percent from last year, and lamb and mutton production was down 5 percent. 

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    USDA National Retail Beef Report:
    Advertised Prices for Beef at Major Retail Supermarket Outlets
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    This week in Beef Retail, the Feature Rate charted a 23.2 percent decrease, the Special Rate was 2.0 percent lower, and the Activity Index is 8.1 percent lower when compared to last week. The dog days of summer have arrived with high heat indexes potentially keeping some consumers from starting the grills. Chuck and Loin cuts saw the most ads space this week while Rib, Round, Brisket, and Ground Beef products saw less. The cattle slaughter under federal inspection is 1.1 percent lower when compared to last week.
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    Livestock Slaughter & Red Meat Production Review
    Daily Livestock Report
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    USDA released yesterday afternoon its monthly tabulation of livestock statistics for June and the data contained some interesting insights.

    Beef: Total US commercial cattle slaughter in June was 2.858 million head, 5.6% higher than a year ago. There was the same number of marketing days as a year ago so the rate of growth was the same when calculated on an average daily basis. The last time monthly slaughter surpassed 2.8 million head was in October 2013, but with one extra marketing day back then. More female cattle in the slaughter mix have bolstered slaughter numbers in recent months. Fed cattle prices declined sharply in the fall of 2016, causing producers to send more heifers into feedlots rather than hold them back for herd rebuilding. As we noted yesterday, this may have not been enough to turn the expansion cycle but it has certainly slowed it down. There were 151,800 more cattle slaughtered in June 2017 compared to a year ago. Out of this total net increase, there were 82,000 more heifers (+13.4%) and 45,700 cows (10.3%). Steer slaughter for the month was up only 15,600 head (+1%) compared to a year ago. The change in the slaughter mix likely impacted the average weight of cattle and overall production levels for the month. Total commercial beef production in June was 2.279 billion pounds, 3.9% higher than a year ago. 

    Slaughter numbers have increased by an average of almost 6% in the last three months (adjusted for marketing days) but beef production during this period has increased by 3.5%. When we account for the significantly larger exports and lower imports, the net beef availability in the US market during the last three months has been only modestly higher than a year ago. Following our letter yesterday, one of our readers highlighted the potential impact on beef cow slaughter from the extreme drought conditions in parts of North and South Dakota. It’) s a fair point and our guess was that the drought likely has contributed to the recent increase in the national cow slaughter. USDA slaughter data (which is only through July 8) tells a different story. USDA does not disclose cow slaughter numbers for Region 5 (which includes the Dakotas) due to confidentiality concerns. But we can calculate the change in slaughter for other regions and imply the impact that region 5 may have. On page 2 we have shown our calculations but basically since June the main contributor to the increase in national beef cow slaughter have been region 6 (Southern Plains) and region 9. At least through early July, the drought in the Dakotas did not seem to impact cow slaughter but it may have pushed more feeders into feedlots early.

    Pork: Hog production has been rising consistently in the last few months although, as with cattle, the pork supply increase has been slower than slaughter due to lower carcass weights. June hog slaughter was 9.870 million head, 3.2% higher than a year ago. Q2 slaughter total stands at 29.2 million head, 3.7% compared to a year ago. Total pork production for June was 2.053 billion pounds, about 40 million pounds (+2%) compared to a year ago. The reduction in weights has shaved about 1.2 percentage points from pork production and limited overall pork availability this summer. We do not have export data for June yet but our preliminary estimate are that the pace of pork exports moderated in June and it will likely be lower than a year ago in July. Based on weekly exports our June projection is for pork shipments to be up about 3% or around 13 million pounds compared to last year. Producers have been culling more sows in the last few months but that is to be expected considering the larger breeding herd. Sow slaughter in June was 256,100 head, 6.8% from a year ago. Q2 sow slaughter was 743,700 head, 42,100 head (+6%) higher than a year ago.

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    Photo of the Week:
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  • 100 Angus/SimAngus Bred Heifers... Western TN*
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    Shootin' the Bull Weekly Analysis:
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    In my opinion, the cattle market remains in a demand driven environment.  Pulls from domestic consumers and import customers continues to whittle away at the "wall" of cattle.  Were there to be a tell tale sign the bear market in cattle is over with, it would be the pricing structure of the board.  For 21/2 years, the pricing structure has been discount.  Sell cattle in the future, you do it at a discount.  Around the first of May, this structure began to change.  Today, you can now sell cattle for more in the future than you can today.  There are two sides to this newest development.  From the producer side, it sets the stage for growing cattle larger to capture the higher price if sold on the board.  Cattlemen today are fixated on numbers and weight. 

    The flip side is, the structure of the board says, "if you'll grow them bigger, we'll pay you more for them in the future."  So, is the fear of them getting bigger greater than the need to grow them bigger?  I perceive it the latter.  Note that this commentary is being written without hindsight of the reports due out Friday.  Therefore, anything stated will be exaggerated greatly, one way or the other.  The wave count remains in limbo as traders have pushed most futures contract months to the middle of their established trading range.  It never ceases to amaze me how traders can push prices into such a critical area before a major report.  The past 6 on feed reports have shown elevated placements.  The past 3 double digit.  This one is anticipated to be 6% above.  Seems paltry compared to previous ones. Nonetheless, I anticipate a 5th wave to a new contract high with an upside target measured to $126.00.  This target is derived from a 50% retracement in the cash market from the $138.00 high to the $117.00 low.  Were this to transpire, it will be anticipated to produce a new contract high and the 5th wave. 

    The January feeders have to come to within less than $1.00 of contract high this week.  If cattle remain so burdensome, why are back months at current contract highs?  The basis and pricing structure of feeders has changed as the fats did.  Not to the same extent, but changed nonetheless.  The wave count on the feeders remains unchanged.  I continue to recommend owning January feeders as they are priced under this years contracts and still in a positive basis.   As stated in the fats, I write this without knowledge of the reports, so take these comments with a grain of salt.  A trade to a new contract high in feeders will lead me to perceive the 5th wave to be in progress.  There is supporting analytics' that suggest wave 4 is complete.  However, without confirmation, the 5th wave remains anticipated. 

    Lastly, if I were to be correct on my analysis, and a new contract high is made, I will look to implement the same strategy as taken in April and May.  Synthetic short futures positions and scaling into them will be the action of choice.  If you are unfamiliar with this strategy, feel free to contact me and I will be glad to explain it until you understand it.  This is a margined position and subject to unlimited margin calls and risk of loss. 

    Corn has been back and forth a number of times. I continue to like owning corn.  The weather and funds movements though have made it a very bumpy ride. 

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    Christopher B. Swift is a commodity broker and consultant with Swift Trading Company in Nashville, TN. Mr. Swift authors the daily commentaries "mid day cattle comment" and "Shootin' the Bull" commentary found on his website @ www.shootinthebull.com

    An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits.  You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. 
    PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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    Pace of Beef Herd Expansion: The Perception and the Reality
    John Nalivka -- President, Sterling Marketing 
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    I will start this article with a “not so profound” statement - forage and prices are the primary drivers to the cattle cycle.  Pretty basic but the economics surrounding that premise are not always so simple.  Economics concerns behavior.  In essence, how cattlemen react to markets and forage supplies leads to herd expansion or liquidation and that is the cattle cycle. 

    We know that the buildup of the nation’s cattle herd over the last 3 years was pretty rapid and that made sense given that prices rose to a record level following drought-forced herd liquidation.  Cow-calf profits in 2014 and 2015 were record as the result of those record prices.  Couple those record profits, expectations for continued strong markets, and good forage conditions and the result was rapid herd building.

    In 2017, beef cow slaughter has remained high all year and on a year-to-date basis, has been 10% above the prior year for most of the first-half.   At the same time, the other component to herd building, heifer slaughter, is also running 10% above a year ago.  Conclusion?  Herd building has slowed significantly.  Before running with that conclusion and potentially wrong information, let’s go one step further and look at those cow and heifer figures in relation to the cow herd and the number of heifers in the inventory.

    Beef cow slaughter during the first-half represented 4.3% of this year’s reported U.S. beef cow inventory.  This compares to 4.2% for that same period during the 3 years 2014-2016 when the pace of herd building was full steam ahead.  So, from that perspective, certainly a different conclusion than the 10% increase in beef cow slaughter would suggest.  The same math for beef cow slaughter during 2007-2013 when beef cow slaughter was much higher indicates we slaughtered 5.3% of the beef cow inventory on average.  That 1% difference is significant. 

    If we look at heifer slaughter in relation to the U.S. heifer inventory, in first-half 2017, 20.3% of the total heifer inventory was harvested and this compares to 20.2% for the 2014-2016 average during that same period.   From that perspective, this year’s first-half slaughter does not seem nearly as large, particularly, when a year ago the number of replacement heifers calving and entering the cow herd was the largest since 1993.  For the 2007-2013 period, the industry slaughtered 25% of the heifer inventory on average.

    When looking at year-over-year percentage changes in the data, you may draw a conclusion.  However, as this discussion illustrates, going the next step can often lead to a much different conclusion. Obviously, the pace of herd expansion affects the production and price outlook.

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    U.S. Dollar - 6 Month Chart:
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    Over the last 5 years, an average of around 10% of U.S. beef production has been exported, making exports an extremely important factor affecting beef and cattle prices.  A strong dollar depresses export demand.
  • U.S. Dollar Index
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    Choice Boxed Beef Cutout, Slaughter, & Feeder Steers:
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    Boxed beef cutout values lower on light to moderate demand and heavy offerings. Select and Choice rib, chuck, and round cuts steady to weak while loin cuts lower. Beef trimmings moderately to sharply higher on moderate to good demand and moderate offerings.

    The average value of hide and offal for the five days ending Fri, Jul 21, 2017  was estimated at 11.69 per cwt., down 0.09 from last week and  up 0.39 from last year.

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    ‘Atypical’ Mad Cow Disease Found in Alabama
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    An “atypical” variety of the animal illness known as mad cow disease was found in an 11-year-old Alabama animal, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday.

    The case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy was detected during routine surveillance at a livestock market, the USDA said Tuesday in a statement. The cow was kept from slaughter channels and “at no time” posed a risk to the food supply, the agency said.

    The atypical variety differs from “classical” BSE linked to Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in people, according to the USDA. In the four previous findings of BSE in the U.S., one case in Washington state in December 2003 was classical, involving a cow brought in from Canada. That roiled global cattle markets and spurred several countries to ban U.S. beef. Earlier this year, China reopened access to U.S. beef imports for the first time since that notorious episode.

    Colin Woodall, vice president for government affairs at the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association in Washington, said the USDA announcement probably won’t hurt trade with exports unaffected by previous findings of the atypical variety.

    “We would not expect any restrictions by our trading partners, but it’s a situation we will watch carefully,” Joe Schuele, a spokesman for the Denver-based U.S. Meat Export Federation, said in a telephone interview. “USMEF would concur with the USDA’s conclusion that an atypical case will not impact the negligible risk status of the U.S. designated by the World Organization for Animal Health.”

    Asian Response

    South Korea’s agriculture ministry said it will strengthen quarantine measures on U.S. beef starting Wednesday. The country doesn’t import beef from slaughterhouses or meat processors based in Alabama, it said in a statement.

    Japan has previously taken measures to prevent the entry of BSE from the U.S. and as this case is atypical, there’s no need to take additional action, Yosuke Yamaki, deputy director at the agriculture ministry’s animal health division, said by phone. China’s General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine didn’t respond to a fax seeking comment.

    While the case of classical BSE in 2003 “shocked the world and shut down a big chunk of exports,” the industry has since made changes to ensure that an infected cow would never enter the human food chain, Brett Stuart, a founding parter at Denver-based market researcher Global AgriTrends, said in a telephone interview.

    On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, cattle futures for October delivery fell 1.5 percent to close at $1.16875 a pound. The market settled before the USDA announcement.

    In the month of December 2003, the most-active contract plunged 21 percent after the classical case was reported.

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    Animal ID Politics... A National Disgrace
    Ag Center Cattle Report
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    Politics is the tool. It is deployed frequently to disarm and frustrate reform – the behind the scene maneuvering orchestrating opposition. Change is the enemy and those opposing change never say so. They warn the disrupters of moving too fast. They acknowledge the need for change and they give voice to embracing technology but deep down, they desire to remain in their comfort zone and don’t want to move out. Identifying those opposed to change can be hard because they don’t want to be identified as a name associated with a face.

    Mandatory ID of the nation’s cattle herd is a no brainer. This past week was Exhibit A of why this has not happened when every other beef producing country has deployed this program resulting in improved competitiveness in the world markets. The roadblocks to this initiative are found within the industry. Their rationale is weak and flawed, but their political influence is strong. 

    Leading the charge are the breeders. Foremost among those groups is the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association. Their stated objection is allowing the government to have inside access to what they own [cattle] and third parties to bring lawsuits against their membership for liability for instances of eColi, or worse, Mad Cow. Legal opinions contradict this fear by assuring a firewall once live cattle are processed into beef. Unmasking the organization reveals the real reason for opposition. They fear mandatory ID might harm their primary revenue stream – brand inspection.

    The national beef association, NCBA, joins in failing to advocate mandatory ID. The NCBA meeting this past week confirmed a lack of leadership on this issue. Pressures from the membership have forced them into the ludicrous position of sanctioning another attempt in 2018 to study the application of a mandatory system. This replicates the studies done over and over through the years and accomplishes nothing except wasting time and money. Meanwhile hundreds of millions of dollars of lost sales and improved markets continue to damage U.S. beef producers at every level.

    U.S. Roundtable for Sustainable Beef [USRSB} is an industry group of food companies, retailers, packers, and producers setting forth a program designed to measure scientifically the progress of sustainability matrixes in beef production. The group has developed draft metrics that can be used by each segment of the supply chain to measure the progress of animals moving through the supply chain. But guess what? No mention of animal ID in the entire 70 page document. This entire effort is quickly transitioning into a charade without mandatory identification of the nation’s herd and there can be no disease traceback. The reason it was left out, it was too controversial.

    Those individuals hiding behind organizations opposing mandatory ID need to come forward and identify themselves. Each name should be posted on the Web under a banner of HALL OF SHAME.  Living in the past is for old timers. The economic world is full of failed businesses whose only flaw was a refusal to change. 

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    Feeder Steers/Corn Correlation:
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    Historically, the value of 25 bushels of corn has been approximately equal to the price per cwt. for feeder steers.
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    Slaughter Cows & Bulls:
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    Slaughter cows and bulls sold mostly steady where noted. 

    Cutter Cow Carcass Cut-Out Value Friday was 180.92 -- Down 0.50 from last Friday. 

                     Weight        Montana     Oklahoma       Alabama 
    Breakers 1100-1600     N/A         68.00-72.00    62.00-67.00
    Boners     1000-1450     N/A         68.50-73.00    65.00-70.00
    Lean        1000-1300      N/A         68.50-72.50    59.00-64.00
    Bulls        1300-2500      N/A         90.50-94.00    91.00-95.00

                   Confirmed  Week Ago  Year Ago  YTD     Year Ago
    National      7,941        8,071         7,865     39,068     38,391
    S Central    2,524        1,801         1,618     11,492     10,378
    N Central       540           689             906       2,746       3,619
    East            1,950        2,841          2,135    11,684     10,238
    West           1,397        1,118          1,699      5,279        6,360
    Midwest      1,530        1,622          1,507      7,787        7,796


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    Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection:
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    Total red meat production under Federal inspection for the week ending Saturday, July 22, 2017 was estimated at 962.8 million lbs. according to the U.S.Department of Agriculture's Marketing Service. This was 0.1 percent lower than a week ago and 2.6 percent higher than a year ago.  Cumulative meat production for the year to date was 3.1 percent higher compared to the previous year.
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    Weekly Hay Reports: "Click" on links for detailed report
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    Weekly Feedstuffs Market Review:
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    The USDA Market News Service reports feed ingredient prices for the week ending July 18, 2017 were mixed. 
    • Soybean Meal was mostly 14.00 to 16.40 lower. Cottonseed Meal was mixed, 5.00 lower to 15.00 higher, mostly steady. Canola Meal was steady to 20.20 lower. Linseed Meal was steady to 30.00 lower. Sunflower Meal was steady to 15.00 lower. 
    • Whole Cottonseed was steady to 15.00 higher.
    • Crude Soybean Oil was 64 points lower. Crude Corn Oil was 100 points lower. 
    • Ruminant Meat and Bone Meal was steady to 30.00 higher. Ruminant Blood Meal was steady to 10.00 higher in a thinly tested market. Feather Meal was mixed, 5.00 lower to 10.00 higher. Menhaden Fishmeal was steady. 
    • Corn Hominy was steady to 5.00 higher. Corn Gluten Feed was mixed, 8.00 lower to 1.00 higher. Corn Gluten Meal was steady to 8.00 higher. 
    • Distillers Dried Grain was mixed, 4.00 lower to 5.00 higher, mostly steady to 5.00 higher. 
    • Wheat Middlings were mixed, 5.00 lower to 10.00 higher, mostly steady to 10.00 higher. Wheat millrun was mixed, 3.00 lower to 2.00 higher.
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    5 Year Bullish/Bearish Consensus Charts:
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    The theory behind the "Bullish/Bearish Consensus" indicator is when the public reaches a consensus, they are usually wrong:
    • They get too bullish after prices have risen and too bearish after they have already fallen.
    Because of this tendency, there are often extremes in opinion right before major changes in trend:
    • When the public reaches a bullish extreme, i.e., a great majority thinks prices will keep rising, then prices often decline instead. 
    • And when they become too bearish, then prices tend to rise.
    So when Public Opinion moves above the red dotted linein the chart, it means that compared to other readings over the past year, you're seeing excessive optimism. You also want to look at the absolute level of Opinion, too - if it's at 90%, then there's no question we're seeing an historic level of bullish opinion.  Watch for readings above 80% (or especially 90%) to spot those dangerous times when the public is overly enthusiastic about a commodity.

    Conversely, when Public Opinion moves below the green dotted line, then the public is excessively pessimistic about the commodity's prospects for further gains compared to their opinion over the past year.  Looking for absolute readings under 20% (or especially 10%) often indicates an upturn in the market.

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    Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Cattle
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    Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Corn
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    Stock Markets & Economic News:
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    Stocks recorded modest gains for the week, with every major benchmark except the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new highs. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index performed best, helped by strength among Internet-related stocks following a favorable earnings report from Netflix. A midweek rally in crude oil prices also helped energy stocks, which have been among the market’s weakest performers for the year to date.

    Trading activity was subdued throughout most of the week despite the release of a substantial number of important earnings reports. Firms representing roughly one-fifth of the S&P 500’s market capitalization released second-quarter results during the week. Earnings strength has been a driver of the market’s gains so far this year, helping to counteract some pullback in multiples (price-to-earnings ratios). Analysts polled by research firm FactSet expect earnings for the S&P 500 Index to have grown by a little more than 7% in the second quarter (versus a year earlier)—just over half of their pace in the first-quarter rebound.

    Strength in the global economy, along with hopes for improved growth in the U.S., has also been a factor driving gains. The previous week brought disappointing news on this front, with the release of soft U.S. inflation and retail sales data, but the current week’s data were somewhat more encouraging. In particular, the Commerce Department reported that housing starts rose 8.3% in June and new housing permits rose 7.4%, both rebounding from prior drops in May. Initial jobless claims fell in the previous week and reached their lowest level in two months, signaling continued strength in the labor market.

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    U.S. Stocks:
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    Will a MegaDrought Slam the U.S. as Soon as 2050?
    Successful Farming
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    When the most recent drought, which devastated California for more than five years, ended this winter with record rainfall, the impact of the event was unprecedented in U.S. history. The drought itself was determined to be the worst dry spell that state had suffered as a result of record hot temperatures. All told, the effects of this drought were estimated at over $5 billion. In 2015 alone, the California drought cost agriculture $1.8 billion.

    This weather event is child’s play, however, compared with a potential megadrought predicted to hit the country at the end of this century. For a comparison, the 10-year Dust Bowl drought, which desiccated the High Plains during the Great Depression, doesn’t even qualify to be classified as a megadrought!

    “What these results (climate-model studies) are saying is that we’re going to get a drought similar to those events, but it will probably last at least 30 to 35 years,” warns Benjamin Cook, a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Cook was part of an extensive research team that includes scientists from Cornell University, the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

    The map above shows the findings of the climate models the team generated. The map projects drought conditions in the year 2090. Brown shadings show soil that’s drier than the 20th century average at 30 centimeters (just less than 1 foot) below the surface. Blue shadings show wetter-than-average soil at the same depth. Note that this predicted drought would not only affect the southwest quarter of the U.S., as well as all of Mexico – where it would be the most intense – but would also spread into Southern states as far east as Florida and invade parts of the Midwest.

    The map and related research from the research team is the most extensive reconstruction of massive past drought events (see below). In the study, researchers used 17 computer models of droughts and three models of soil moisture for their predictions. After the researchers determined a high degree of agreement among the models, they applied the models to data gathered from tree rings going back to the year 1000.

    A DROUGHT THAT WOULD ECLIPSE ANYTHING WE’VE EVER SEEN

    The researchers concluded from their works that such a megadrought is highly likely to happen as soon as 2050 as the result of greenhouse gas emissions. Such a dry period would be devastating beyond description and certainly worse than anything the U.S. has ever experienced, Cook claims.

    “Even when selecting for the worst megadrought-dominated period (from the past), the 21st century projections make the droughts from the past seem like quaint walks through the Garden of Eden,” says study coauthor Jason E. Smerdon of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

    The most poignant drought to afflict recent history, the Dust Bowl, affected 100 million acres around the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and adjacent lands in Kansas, Colorado, and New Mexico. The dry period created dust storms that spread across the High Plains and deposited dust as far east as New York and Washington. It is estimated by historians that the Dust Bowl drought event caused more than 500,000 people to be homeless and 3.5 million refugees to move west to try to find work. In just one year alone, 1935, it was estimated that 850,000,000 tons of topsoil was blown off the Southern Plains.

    WHAT IS A MEGADROUGHT?

    By definition, a megadrought is a prolonged drought that lasts two decades or longer. The issue isn’t if a megadrought will reappear, but, rather, when it will happen and how severe such an extended dry period could be.

    The NASA/Columbia University/Cornell University research team estimates the current chance of a megadrought hitting the U.S. is more than 60% if greenhouse gas emissions level off by the middle of the 21st century. However, if greenhouse emissions continue to increase in the world along current trends throughout this century, there is more than an 80% likelihood of a megadrought occurring between the years 2050 and 2099.

    MEGADROUGHTS FROM THE PAST

    Whether you accept global warming or not really doesn’t matter when it comes to the existence of megadroughts. Several such events have already occurred in the U.S., explains Toby Ault of Cornell University. Ault led the team that also researched future potential severe droughts.

    Evidence from tree rings shows that the American Southwest suffered abnormally dry periods during the Middle Ages (900 to 1300 AD) as illustrated below.

    NEBRASKA’S SAND HILLS ARE EVIDENCE

    The sand dunes (shown below ) the researchers refer to are now the grass-covered Sand Hills of Nebraska, an area covering 19,300 square miles, or one third of that state. Some of the dunes in this area are 400 feet high and up to 20 miles long. Paleoclimate data reveals the Nebraska Sand Hills were active during the Medieval Megadrought. 

    What is troubling is that the Medieval Megadrought that caused the Sand Hills to be active was nothing compared with a dry period that devastated Mexico from 1540 to 1589. This was the most severe sustained dry period in North American history. It has been estimated that the impact of that drought caused the loss of 15 million people in Mexico.

    HOW IT WAS DETERMINED THE MEDIEVAL MEGADROUGHTS EVER HAPPENED

    Of course, the Medieval Megadrought happened long before there were any weather records. Data has only been recorded for the past 150 years.

    Past massive drought events have been determined by the effects they had on trees living at the time, as mentioned before. Those trees can be found as stumps often covered with water and residing in river valley bottoms in lakes in the Sierra Nevada mountains. Ancient tree stumps populate margins of famous lakes such as Mono Lake in California.

    In the 1990s, University of California scientist Scott Stine began using carbon dating to determine when those trees were living and found that they pretty much all grouped in the medieval period. As mentioned before, Nebraska’s Sand Hills also provide evidence of the Medieval Megadrought. 

    Not everything is gloom and doom when it comes to the predicted megadrought at the end of this century, however. Its likelihood will be greatly affected by increasing greenhouse gas emissions. If emissions are curtailed, so are the chances of the U.S. Southwest suffering from a megadrought.

    “I am optimistic that we can cope with the threat of a megadrought in the future because it doesn’t mean no water. It means significantly less water than we are used to,” says Cornell’s Ault.

    PREDICTING THE IMPACT OF A MEGADROUGHT

    Noble Prize winner Jonathan Overpeck isn’t so positive. When he was at the University of Arizona, Overpeck and colleague Connie Woodhouse invented the word “megadrought” in the 1990s. Overpeck was the lead author on the 2007 and the 2010-2014 climate assessments that was published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change authorized by Congress.

    A “searing megadrought” is what Overpeck fears could strike an area stretching from California in the west, Iowa to the east, and Louisiana in the south. Such an event would lead to dust storms across the region with the majority of trees perishing. Agriculture would become all but impossible in this drought area.

    Furthermore, a megadrought, Overpeck predicts, would lead to major water shortages that would cause vegetation to dry up causing massive wildfires across the Southwest.

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    "Click Here" to view a Slide Show of Drought Monitor maps for the last 12 weeks
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    Looking Ahead:
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    In the 2 days since the Tuesday morning cutoff time of this week’s USDM, additional frontal storms have moved across the northern and central Plains, and monsoon showers and thunderstorms have brought additional rain to parts of the Southwest. 

    For July 20-24, 1 to locally 4 inches of rain is forecast for the Four Corners States and from the eastern Dakotas to Northeast, and half an inch to an inch is predicted for the central to northern Plains and most of the country along and east of the Mississippi River. Areas expecting little to no rain include much of the West from California to central Montana, most of Texas, and parts of the western Carolinas. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal for most of the CONUS. 

    Little relief from the heat can be expected as above-normal temperatures are in the outlook for most of the CONUS and Alaska for July 25-August 2, with only the Northeast and parts of the coastal Northwest maybe having cooler-than-normal temperatures. Odds favor below-normal precipitation for coastal southern Alaska, the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies, and most of the Plains into the Midwest. Above-normal monsoon precipitation is likely to continue for the Southwest, and Alaska is expected to be wetter than normal. The Northeast may start out drier than normal, then turn wetter than normal.

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    U.S. Says No Timeline to Restore Brazil Beef Imports
    Reuters
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    Brazil needs to make progress on inspections before any timeline can be set to end a U.S. ban on imports of fresh Brazilian beef, the U.S. agriculture secretary said on Monday.

    Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue and his Brazilian counterpart Blairo Maggi met in Washington, D.C., on Monday to discuss the ban that went into effect on June 22. The United States has said a high percentage of beef shipments from Brazil did not pass safety checks.

    In June, the United States blocked shipments of fresh Brazilian beef and said it had found abscesses in the meat and signs of systemic failure of inspections in meat from the world's largest beef exporter.

    In March, some Brazilian meatpackers were hit with a scandal involving alleged bribery of health officials, which briefly shut Brazil's protein exports out of major global markets from China to Europe.

    Brazilian cattle ranchers have said they believe the abscesses were linked to foot-and-mouth vaccines used in Brazil, the only country where foot-and-mouth disease can be found in cattle that can sell to the United States because it uses vaccinations.

    After the meeting, Brazil's Agriculture Ministry released a recording of Maggi's remarks in which he said the United States could lift a ban on imports of fresh Brazilian beef in 30 to 60 days but the final decision would be made after analysis of information presented by Brazil.

    Perdue said in a statement that Maggi had pressed for a timeline for restoring imports of fresh Brazilian beef to the United States, but he said any timeline would depend upon progress being made by Brazil.

    Brazil had been selling fresh beef to the United States since July 2016 when the countries signed an agreement ending 17 years of talks about such imports.

    Fresh beef shipments to the United States represent 3 percent of Brazil's beef exports and were worth $58.1 million from January to June.

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    Feedyard Closeouts: Profit/(Loss)
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    Slaughter Cattle:
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    Friday negotiated cash trade was active on good demand in all feeding regions. Compared to last week in the Southern Plains, live purchases traded steady at 120.00. Compared to Wednesday in Nebraska live purchases traded mostly 2.00 higher at 120.00. Dressed purchases on Friday traded from 189.00-190.00. In Colorado compared to Thursday, live purchases traded mostly 2.00 higher at 120.00 with a few up to 120.50. In the Western Cornbelt compared to Thursday, live purchases traded 2.00 higher at 120.00. Dressed purchases on Friday traded mostly at 190.00.

    Negotiated Sales: Confirmed: 38,738        Week Ago: 4,397        Year Ago: 6,697

    Live Basis              Steers                                       Heifers
    Over 80% Choice  119.00 - 120.00 avg 119.86   119.00 - 120.00 avg 119.93
    65 - 80% Choice    119.50 - 120.50 avg 120.02   119.00 - 120.50 avg 120.02
    35 - 65% Choice    120.00 - 120.00 avg 120.00   118.00 - 120.00 avg 119.61
    0 - 35% Choice                   -                                                  -
    Total all Grades 119.00 - 120.50 avg 119.97        118.00 - 120.50 avg 119.95

    Dressed Basis
    Over 80% Choice 186.00 - 190.00 avg 189.33   188.00 - 190.00 avg 189.30
    65 - 80% Choice   189.00 - 190.00 avg 189.60   189.00 - 190.00 avg 189.74
    35 - 65% Choice                -                                                  - 
    0 - 35% Choice                  -                                                   - 
    Total all Grades    186.00 - 190.00 avg 189.48    188.00 - 190.00 avg 189.50

    Formula Purchases: Net - Dressed
    Head count priced today: 12,700
    Weighted avg weight:            843
    Weighted avg net price:   192.16

    The FCE On-Line Auction offered 2,912 head total on Wednesday with 708 head sold @ weighted average price of $118.27

    • 1-9 Day Delivery: 626 head sold, weighted average price $ 118.30
    • 1-17 Day Delivery: 82 head sold, weighted average price $ 118.00
    • 10-17 Day Delivery: 195 head, no sales
    • 17-30 Day Delivery: 803 head, no sales
    Livestock Slaughter under Federal Inspection: 
                                     CATTLE    CALVES   HOGS        SHEEP
    Friday  (est)             115,000      2,000         426,000          7,000
    Week ago (est)       115,000      2,000         407,000          7,000
    Year ago (act)         112,000      2,000          403,000         6,000
    Week to date (est)  577,000      9,000      2,164,000       38,000
    Last Week (est)      590,000      9,000      2,161,000        37,000
    Last Year (act)        561,000      8,000       2,099,000       37,000

    Saturday  (est)          45,000         0                 49,000         0
    Week ago (est)         39,000         0                34,000         0
    Year ago (act)           36,000         0                41,000          1,000
    Week to date (est) 622,000       9,000     2,213,000        38,000
    Last Week (est)      629,000      9,000      2,195,000        37,000
    Last Year* (act)      597,000       9,000      2,141,000       37,000
    2017 YTD          17,394,000   273,000   65,255,000  1,067,000
    2016 *YTD         16,445,000   246,000   63,465,000  1,118,000
    Percent change       5.8%          11.0%         2.8%           -4.5%

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    Fed Cattle Market - Mid-Year Review
    Livestock Marketing Information Center
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    In the first quarter of this year, the 5-market slaughter steer price was 8.8% below 2016’s. Slaughter steers averaged above a year ago (up 4.0%) in the second quarter. Those were stronger prices than forecast in late 2016. It appeared that the cash market price was topping out in mid-March when the weekly 5-market average hit $130.91 per cwt. (live basis) and prices did erode for a few weeks. Then they surged higher. The weekly peak was $144.60, which was posted the first week of May.  By the last week of June the price had fallen to $118.64 per cwt. 

    Steer and heifer slaughter levels have been larger than expected so far this year, while carcass (dressed) weights have been much lower than anticipated. Very strong beef packer profits made packers aggressive buyers of slaughter ready animals and cattle feeders were willing sellers.

    U.S. commercial cattle slaughter in the first quarter was 7.3% above 2016’s. Average cattle dressed weight declined 1.1% year-over-year, so beef production was 6.1% above a year ago. The trend of higher slaughter levels compared to a year earlier and lower dressed weights continued in the second quarter (slaughter up 5.8% and dressed weight dropped 2.2% year-over-year). In the second quarter, U.S. beef production was up 3.4% from 2016’s. For the first half of 2016, commercial beef output was just over 12.7 billion pounds, which was the largest for the first six months of a calendar year since 2012.

    Due to strong beef exports and declining imported beef tonnage, U.S. per capita beef disappearance in the first two quarters of this year in percentage terms grew much less than production. Year-over-year, per person disappearance was up 3.3% in the first quarter and the LMIC projects the second quarter will be up only 0.7%.

    The LMIC is forecasting U.S. commercial beef production will increase 2% to 3% in the second half of 2017. In 2018, year-over-year quarterly production increases in the 3% to 5% range are currently forecast. If strong beef exports continue to absorb most or all of the increase in per capita domestic supply, look for fed cattle prices to remain above a year ago for the balance of 2017. In 2018, larger domestic supplies will likely pressure prices lower compared to this year.

    U.S. Exports of Beef & Pork Remain Strong

    U.S. red meat export tonnage continued to post year-over-year increases in the latest data compiled by USDA, which is for the month of May. In their World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA is forecasting that both beef and pork exports (carcass weight) this calendar year will set new record highs.

    Beef export tonnage during May was 3.2% above a year ago. For the first five months of 2017, U.S. beef export tonnage surged 19.5% year-over-year to nearly 1.1 billion pounds (carcass weight equivalent).That slightly eclipsed the prior high for January-May set in 2011.

    Pork export tonnage in May was 12.3% above 2016’s and year-to-date increased 12.1%. At over 2.4 billion pounds (carcass weight), U.S. pork exports so far this year were the largest ever for the January-May timeframe (increased 3.0% from the prior high set in 2012). 

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    Weekly Corn Crop Condition Report:
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    National Grain Summary:
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    Compared to last week, grain bids were mostly higher with wheat being mixed. The short-term uptrend on daily charts for December corn has strengthened this week.  On corn’s up days the trade volume continues to be lower than it was on its down days, which is a bearish technical signal.  November soybeans are bordering on a short-term bullish breakout.  Despite of the recent rally, November soybeans short-term daily chart still looks bearish.  Going into the weekend, wheat could be supported by the continued pressure on the U.S. dollar.  Minneapolis spring wheat futures spreads are in sharp downtrends. This may be an indication of continued commercial selling. 

    Weekly export sales for all wheat were viewed as bullish and showed a total of 24.6 mb (669,500 mt), all for the 2017-2018 marketing year.  Weekly export sales of corn were bullish with a total of 26.7 mb (678,600 mt) with 18.4 mb (466,500 mt) for the 2016-2017 marketing year.  Weekly export sales of soybeans were neutral-to-bearish with a total of 71.0 mb (1,932,100 mt) with 15.1 mb (409,600 mt) for the 2016-2017 marketing year.  Weekly export sales of grain sorghum (milo) were bearish with a total of 4.8 mb (123,000 mt) with 2.2 mb (57,000 mt) for the 2016-2017 marketing year.  Wheat was 31 cents lower to 33 cents higher.  Corn was 17 to 24 cents higher.  Sorghum was 38 to 42 cents higher.  Soybeans were 37 to 44 cents higher.

    Corn futures closed Friday with losses of 7 to 11 1/4 cents in most contracts, with Sep gaining 3 1/2 cents on the week. Friday morning showed showers rolling across dry portions of Northern NE and Southern SD. Recent bulls were cashing out rather than risking gains over the weekend. The afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report indicated that spec traders had added 3,706 contracts to their net long position of 104,670 contracts in corn futures and options trading. Consultant Informa updated their 2017 US corn yield projection to 166.2 bushels per acre, down 3.5 bpa from their previous estimate, with production at 13.9 billion bushels. On Friday, China sold 1.873 MMT of 3.366 MMT of 2013 and 2014 corn offered at an auction of state reserves.

    Wheat futures posted 5 to 7 3/4 cent losses in most KC and CBT contracts, as MPLS was 9 to 12 1/4 cents lower in most contracts. The Sep contract in KC as down 3.41% on the week, with CBE 2.25% lower, as MPLS saw gains of 1.02%. Spring wheat yield for 2017 was lowered 2.2 bpa to 38.1 bpa by Informa on Thursday afternoon, with their production estimate dropping 23 mbu to 400 mbu. These are still higher than some other recent trade projections. Spec funds backed 2,193 contracts on their net largest recorded net long position to 70,918 contracts in KC wheat futures and options. In CBT wheat futures and options, they lowered their net long position to 35,926 contracts, a drop of 8,759 contracts. The US ag attach in Australia lowered their wheat production estimate for the crop to be harvested this fall to 22 MMT, 1.5 MMT lower than the latest USDA projection.

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    Five Year Moving Average - Corn & Wheat:
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    Your Suggestions:
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    Our goal is for the Weekly Market Summary to provide a comprehensive overview of the week's cattle market.  If you have a suggestion that would enhance the summary, use the link below to submit your suggestion. If we implement it, we'll send you a Cattle Range Knife as a token of our appreciation.
     
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    Although all information is from sources believed to be accurate & timely, The Cattle Range expressly disclaims all warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of any of the contents provided and shall not be liable for decisions or actions taken based on the data/information/opinions contained within.
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