August WASDE Report
USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates - Released on August 12th
Friendly for Cattle; Bearish for Corn
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total meat production in 2019 is raised from last month as increases in broiler and turkey production more than offset declines in beef and pork production.
The decline in beef production largely reflects a slower pace of cattle slaughter in the third quarter and lighter expected carcass weights through 2019. The pork production forecast is reduced on a slower expected pace of slaughter during the third quarter.
For 2019, the beef import forecast is adjusted to reflect June trade data; the import forecast for 2020 is unchanged. Beef export forecasts are unchanged for both 2019 and 2020. The pork import forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are lowered on slowing import demand. The pork export forecast for 2019 is adjusted based on June trade data. No change is made to the 2020 pork export forecast.
Fed cattle prices are raised for 2019 on current price strength. The 2020 price forecast is also raised. The 2019 hog price forecast is lowered on recent price pressure, but the 2020 price forecast is unchanged from last month. The broiler price forecast for 2019 and 2020 are lowered on larger forecast supplies. The turkey price forecast for 2019 is raised; no change is made to the 2020 turkey price forecast.
Corn: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, and greater ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.9 billion bushels, up 26 million from the July projection as a decline in harvested acres is virtually offset by an increase in yield. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 169.5 bushels per acre, is 3.5 bushels higher than last month’s projection. Today’s Crop Production report indicates that Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota are forecast to have yields below a year ago. Of the major producing states, only Missouri is forecast to have yields above a year ago. Corn used for ethanol is reduced 25 million bushels to 5.5 billion. Exports are lowered reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and expectations of increasing competition from Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine. With supply rising and use falling, ending stocks are up 171 million bushels to 2.2 billion.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for greater supplies, increased use and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is raised 59 million bushels to 1,980 million on increased winter wheat and other spring wheat production as indicated by the NASS August Crop Production report. Estimated food use for the 2018/19 market year is lowered 5 million bushels to 955 million based on the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report. Food use for the 2019/20 market year is also lowered 5 million bushels to 960 million. Feed and residual use is raised 20 million bushels to 170 million on greater wheat supplies and more competitive prices. Projected 2019/20 U.S. wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels to 975 million on lower exportable supplies from key competitors. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.20 per bushel to $5.00 on updated NASS prices, lower U.S. corn prices, and reduced wheat price expectations for the remainder of the market year.