Summary of the June WASDE Report
USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates - Released June 10th
June WASDE Report: Slightly Bullish for Cattle & Corn
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY: The forecast for 2021 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher forecast beef, broiler, and turkey production more than offsets lower pork production. The increase in beef production is small as higher expected cow slaughter is largely offset by lower steer and heifer slaughter.
Pork production is lowered as higher expected slaughter is more than offset by lower carcass weights. The broiler production forecast is raised primarily on higher production in the second quarter while turkey production is raised on hatchery data and a more rapid pace of slaughter.
The 2022 red meat and poultry production forecast is little changed from last month with only a slight increase in turkey production due to expected improvement in turkey prices.
The beef import forecast is raised for 2021 and 2022 on expected strength in demand for processing beef. Exports for both years are raised on expected firm demand from Asian markets.
Pork export forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are raised from the previous month as demand in several markets has strengthened. Broiler and turkey export forecasts for 2021 are raised on recent trade data; no change is made to 2022.
For 2021, cattle, hog, and turkey price forecasts are raised, reflecting current price strength. Hog and turkey prices are also raised for the first quarter of 2022. Broiler and egg price forecasts are reduced for second quarter 2021 based on current prices; no changes are made to prices in the outlying quarters.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced beginning and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are down 150 million bushels reflecting projected increases for 2020/21 in corn used for ethanol and exports. Corn used for ethanol is raised 75 million bushels based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report, and weekly ethanol production and refiner and blender net inputs data during May which indicate demand is almost back to levels seen prior to COVID-19.
Exports are raised 75 million bushels, based on export inspection data for the month of May that implies continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, despite high prices. With no use changes for 2021/22, ending stocks are lowered 150 million bushels.
The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $5.70 per bushel.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and slightly lower stocks. Supplies are raised as higher production more than offsets reduced beginning stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1,898 million bushels, up 26 million from last month on increased Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter production more than offsetting lower White Winter production. The all wheat yield is 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month.
Beginning stocks declined due to higher 2020/21 exports, which were raised 20 million bushels to 985 million, primarily on larger recent monthly exports. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels to 180 million on the higher supplies as wheat is expected to be priced competitively with corn in the summer months. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are lowered 4 million bushels to 770 million, down 10 percent from the revised 2020/21 ending stocks.
The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is unchanged at $6.50 per bushel, compared to $5.05 for 2020/21, which is also unchanged this month.