November WASDE Report
USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates - Released on November 8th
Beef Production & Cattle Prices Forecast Higher
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2019 total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month on higher beef, pork, broiler, and turkey production.
Beef production is raised from the previous month on higher expected slaughter of both fed and non-fed cattle. The pork production forecast is raised on both higher hog slaughter and slightly higher carcass weights. The broiler production forecast is raised as hatchery data points to larger supplies of birds available for slaughter in the fourth quarter. Turkey production is raised on higher-than-expected third-quarter production and higher expected supplies of birds in the fourth quarter
For 2020, the total red meat and poultry forecast is increased from last month as higher broiler and turkey production more than offsets a lower beef production forecast. The pork production forecast is unchanged. Broiler and turkey production forecasts are raised as the increase in production late this year is forecast to carry into late 2020. The beef production forecast is reduced on a slower expected pace of gains in carcass weights. A slightly slower pace of feedlot marketings also contributes to the reduced production forecast.
Beef and pork trade for 2019 are adjusted to reflect third-quarter reported data; the forecasts for the fourth-quarter 2019 and for 2020 are unchanged from last month. The 2019 broiler export forecast is lowered as weaker-than-expected third quarter exports further dampen expectations for shipments in the fourth quarter; no change is made to the 2020 forecast.
The cattle price forecast is raised for fourth-quarter 2019 based on recent data; no change is made to the 2020 forecast. The 2019 and 2020 hog price forecasts are reduced on current price weakness. The 2019 broiler price forecast is raised from the previous month on current prices. The price strength is carried into early 2020, but increased production in the later part of 2020 is expected to pressure prices; the 2020 annual price forecast is unchanged. The 2019 and 2020 turkey price forecasts are unchanged from the previous month.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced use, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.661 billion bushels, down 118 million from last month on a 1.4-bushel reduction in yield to 167.0 bushels per acre. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels based on a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Exports are reduced reflecting the slow pace of early-season sales and shipments. Corn used for ethanol is down 25 million bushels based on September data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of October. With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks are lowered 18 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents to $3.85 per bushel based on observed prices to date.
Global coarse grain production for 2019/20 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1,394.9 million. This month’s 2019/20 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased trade, and lower stocks relative to last month.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, and lower stocks. Wheat supplies are decreased 42 million bushels, based on updated production estimates for the States resurveyed following the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued September 30. Adjustments to production in these States, where significant acreage remained unharvested in early September, lowers production estimates for Hard Red Spring wheat, White wheat, and Durum with most reductions occurring in North Dakota and Montana. Estimated seed use is reduced 7 million bushels to 61 million, reflecting a projected 2020/21 all wheat planted acreage of 45.0 million. Food use is lowered 5 million bushels to 955 million, primarily based on the NASS Flour Milling Products report, issued November 1. Projected 2019/20 wheat stocks are reduced 30 million bushels to 1,014 million. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.10 per bushel to $4.60, based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash and futures prices the remainder of the 2019/20 marketing year.
The global outlook for wheat this month is for higher supplies, increased exports, fractionally greater consumption, and higher ending stocks.