LIVESTOCK & POULTRY: The forecast for 2021 total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as lower pork, broiler, and turkey forecasts more than offset a higher beef forecast. Beef production is raised from the previous month as lower expected steer and heifer slaughter are more than offset by higher cow slaughter and heavier average carcass weights. The pork production forecast is reduced on lower expected fourth quarter hog slaughter. Broiler and turkey production forecasts are reduced on recent hatchery and slaughter data.
Although higher expected placements of cattle in second half 2021 are expected to support higher early-year supplies of fed cattle, placements in the first half of 2022 are lowered and fed cattle supplies in the second half or 2022 are expected to be tighter. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released on September 24, estimated a lower pig crop for June-August and lower farrowing intentions for September/November. This supports lower hog slaughter expectations for first half 2022. Slower expected growth in pigs per litter during 2022 resulted in lower expected hog supplies in the second half of the year. Broiler and turkey production forecasts are reduced on expectations of a relatively slow response to improving margins. The 2022 egg production forecast is unchanged.
For 2021 and 2022, beef import forecasts are raised reflecting continued strength in demand while the export forecasts are unchanged. The pork import forecasts are raised on increased supplies of pork on the global market. The pork export forecast for 2021 is reduced on weaker expected demand from China and increased competition in global markets; however, exports are increased for 2022 as growth in several key markets recovers. The broiler export forecast for 2021 is raised slightly, but no change is made to the 2022 forecast. Turkey export forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are lowered from last month.
Fed cattle prices for 2021 are lowered on current price movements and relatively large supplies of fed cattle. However, the 2022 price forecast is raised on tighter expected supplies of cattle.
The 2021 and 2022 hog price forecasts are raised on lower expected hog supplies. Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised for 2021 and 2022 on lowered production.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for slightly higher production, increased exports, lower feed and residual use, and larger ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.019 billion bushels, up 23 million on a marginal increase in yield to 176.5 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast up 72 million bushels from last month, on slightly higher production and increased beginning stocks based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report.
Exports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting larger supplies and expectations of reduced competition from other major exporters. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2020/21. With supply rising and use falling, corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 92 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast down 2.9 million tons to 1,494.0 million. The 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, virtually unchanged trade, and larger stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast essentially unchanged as increases for the EU, Canada, Venezuela, and Serbia are largely offset by declines for Ukraine, Russia, and Guatemala. EU corn production is raised reflecting increases for Poland and Romania more than offset declines for France and Bulgaria. Corn production in Canada is higher reflecting favorable yield prospects for Ontario. Projected corn yields for Russia and Ukraine are lowered based on reported harvest results to date.
Corn exports are raised for India, the United States, and the EU, with partly offsetting reductions for Ukraine, Russia, and Vietnam. For 2020/21, corn exports for Brazil are lowered for the local marketing year beginning March 2021, based on shipments through the month of September.
For 2021/22, corn imports are lowered for Vietnam, Chile, Algeria, Israel, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia, but raised for Bangladesh. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for China and Mexico, with a partly offsetting reduction for Ukraine. Global corn stocks, at 301.7 million, are up 4.1 million.