LIVESTOCK & POULTRY: Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2023 is forecast below 2022, as lower beef production more than offsets higher pork and poultry production. For 2023, beef production is forecast lower with expected declines in both fed and non-fed cattle supplies. Pork production is forecast higher with increased farrowings and continued growth in productivity. Higher forecast broiler production reflects moderating feed costs and improved productivity. Turkey production is projected higher as the sector recovers from the 2022 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks.
Total red meat and poultry production forecasts for 2022 are raised from last month. Higher beef and broiler production more than offset a reduction in pork and turkey production. Beef production is raised, with more cattle placed in feedlots sooner than normally expected due to drought conditions, supporting higher annual fed cattle slaughter. Additionally, cow slaughter is forecast higher. Pork production is reduced on lighter expected carcass weights. Based on recent slaughter and hatchery data, the broiler production forecast is raised while the turkey production forecast is lowered.
For 2023, beef exports are down from 2022 on lower beef production and higher prices. Beef imports are lower on tight global supplies. Pork imports are slightly higher compared to 2022 and exports are slightly lower. Broiler exports are forecast higher on increased production and lower prices, and turkey exports are forecast slightly higher on increased supplies and a resumption of pre-HPAI trade patterns. For 2022, beef and broiler exports are raised while pork and turkey exports are lowered based on recent trade data.
For 2023, cattle prices are forecast above 2022 on tighter supplies. Hog, broiler, and turkey prices are forecast lower with increased production. The egg price is forecast lower with higher expected production. The 2022 cattle price forecast is raised on recent data and tighter expected fed cattle supplies later in the year. Hog prices are lowered on prices to date and weaker demand, while broiler and turkey prices are raised on stronger prices to date and continued demand strength.
COARSE GRAINS: The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, domestic use, exports, ending stocks, and higher prices. The corn crop is projected at 14.5 billion bushels, down 4.3 percent from last year. The corn yield is projected at 177.0 bushels per acre, 4.0 bushels below the weather adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. The very slow start to this year’s planting in the major corn producing States and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well behind normal reduce yield prospects. Despite beginning stocks that are up relative to a year ago, total corn supplies are forecast to decline 2.7 percent to 15.9 billion bushels.
Total U.S. corn use in 2022/23 is forecast to fall 2.5 percent on declines in domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is virtually unchanged at 6.8 billion bushels. Corn used for ethanol is unchanged relative to a year ago on expectations of flat U.S. motor gasoline consumption. Sorghum FSI is unchanged but higher than the minimum seen in recent years as China is expected to continue to source sorghum from other exporters in addition to the United States. Corn feed and residual use is down 4.9 percent relative to a year ago, reflecting a smaller crop, higher expected season-average farm prices received by producers, and a decline in grain consuming animal units.
U.S. corn exports are forecast to decline 4.0 percent in 2022/23 as lower supplies and robust domestic demand limit prospects. Even with record exports projected for Argentina and Brazil, a 550-million-bushel drop in exports for Ukraine due to the ongoing conflict is the primary catalyst for a decline in world trade. With expectations of robust global demand in the face of high prices, the U.S. share of global corn trade is up slightly relative to a year ago.
With total U.S. corn supply falling more than use, 2022/23 U.S. ending stocks are down 80 million bushels from last year. Stocks relative to use at 9.3 percent would be below a year ago and lower than the 14.4 percent average seen during 2015/16 to 2019/20. The season-average corn price received by producers is projected at $6.75 per bushel, up 85 cents from a year ago and if realized the highest since $6.89 reached during 2012/13.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies, exports, domestic use stocks, and higher prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest. All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from last year, as higher yields more than offset a slight decrease in harvested area. The all wheat yield, projected at 46.6 bushels per acre, is up 2.3 bushels from last year. The first survey-based forecast for 2022/23 winter wheat production is down 8 percent from last year as lower Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter production more than offset an increase in White Wheat production. Abandonment for Winter Wheat is the highest since 2002 with the highest levels in Texas and Oklahoma. Spring Wheat production for 2022/23 is projected to rebound significantly from last year’s drought-reduced Hard Red Spring and Durum crops primarily on return-to-trend yields.
Total 2022/23 domestic use is projected down 1 percent on lower feed and residual use more than offsetting higher food use. Exports are projected at 775 million bushels, down from revised 2021/22 exports and would be the lowest since 1971/72. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are 6 percent lower than last year at 619 million bushels, the lowest level in nine years. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price (SAFP) is a record $10.75 per bushel, up $3.05 from last year’s revised SAFP. Wheat cash and futures prices are expected to remain sharply elevated through the first part of the marketing year when the largest proportion of U.S. wheat is marketed.