November ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher beef and broiler forecasts for the fourth quarter are partly offset by lower pork and turkey forecasts. Beef production is raised with higher expected cattle slaughter as well as higher carcass weights. Pork production is lowered on a slower expected pace of slaughter. Broiler production is raised on current slaughter and hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered based on tighter bird supplies.
For 2023, the beef production forecast is lowered on tighter supplies of fed cattle and lower cow slaughter. Broiler production is raised on expected growth in broiler flocks. Turkey production is lowered slightly for the first two quarters. Egg production is reduced as slower expected growth in production in late 2022 is carried into the first part of 2023.
Beef imports for 2022 are lowered on recent data, higher expected U.S. cow slaughter, and weaker expected imports from Oceania in the fourth quarter. Exports are lowered on recent data and expected weaker exports to Asian markets. No changes are made to beef trade for 2023. Pork imports are lowered and exports are raised for 2022 on observed data. Weaker imports are carried through into 2023, but exports are unchanged. Broiler export forecasts for 2022 are raised on recent trade data while 2023 exports are unchanged. Turkey exports are raised for 2022 and 2023 on current trade data.
Cattle price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are raised on stronger expected demand. The 2022 hog price forecast is raised on prices to date; 2023 prices are unchanged. The broiler price forecast for 2022 is lowered on recent data, but 2023 forecasts are unchanged. Turkey price forecasts for both 2022 and 2023 are raised with lowered expected production.
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for higher production, larger feed and residual use, and greater ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.930 billion bushels, up 35 million from last month on a 0.4-bushel increase in yield to 172.3 bushels per acre. Feed and residual use is higher based on a larger crop. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.80 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast fractionally lower at 1,459.5 million tons. This month’s 2022/23 foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, lower trade, and smaller stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast lower as declines for the EU, South Africa, Philippines, and Nigeria are partly offset by increases for Angola, Mali, Pakistan, Turkey, and Senegal. Corn production in the EU is down based on a decline for Hungary. South Africa is reduced based on lower expected area. Barley production is lowered for Argentina but raised for Australia and the EU.
Major global trade changes include lower corn exports for South Africa. Corn imports are reduced for Vietnam, Algeria, and Turkey. For 2021/22, corn exports for Argentina are cut for the local marketing year beginning March 2022, based on shipments observed through October. For 2022/23, barley exports are raised for Australia but lowered for Argentina and Russia. Barley imports are reduced for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, mostly reflecting declines for Nigeria and South Africa that are partly offset by an increase for Vietnam. Global corn ending stocks, at 300.8 million tons, are down 0.4 million.
The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for stable supplies, increased domestic use, unchanged exports, and slightly lower ending stocks. Total domestic use is projected 5 million bushels higher at 1,093 million as an increase in food use more than offsets a decrease in seed use. Food use is raised 7 million bushels to a record 977 million on strong calendar year third quarter wheat ground for flour reported in the latest NASS Flour Milling Products. All wheat exports are unchanged at 775 million bushels, with offsetting changes for White wheat and Durum. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered 5 million bushels to 571 million, the lowest level since 2007/08. The projected 2022/23 season average farm price is unchanged at $9.20 per bushel.
The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for increased supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are projected up 1.3 million tons to 1,059.0 million based on increases in beginning stocks and production. World production is raised 1.0 million tons to 782.7 million as larger production in Australia, Kazakhstan, and the UK more than offsets declines in Argentina and the EU. Production in Australia is raised 1.5 million tons to 34.5 million as above average rain over the past month supported crop development and boosted yields, following widespread favorable conditions earlier in the growing season. Argentina production is lowered as continued widespread dry conditions through most of October further eroded yield potential, especially in northern areas. Feed and residual use is raised 0.9 million tons as increases in the EU, South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam more than offset a decline in India. However, FSI consumption is lowered 1.5 million tons primarily on decreases for Bangladesh and Indonesia.
The global forecast for trade is increased 0.3 million tons to a record 208.7 million, primarily on higher exports from Australia, Kazakhstan, and the UK that more than offset a reduction in exports by Argentina. Projected global ending stocks are increased 0.3 million tons to 267.8 million, with increases for Australia and India and a decrease for the EU accounting for most of the change.