July ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2023 is raised from last month on higher forecast beef, broiler, and turkey production. Pork production is fractionally lower this month. Beef production is raised with higher expected steer and heifer, cow, and bull slaughter. Pork production is lowered slightly as larger expected fourth-quarter slaughter is more than offset by lower production in the second and third quarters. Broiler and turkey production is raised on slaughter data for the second quarter. Turkey production is also raised for the third quarter on hatchery data.
For 2024, the beef production forecast is lowered as expected fed cattle marketings are shifted into late 2023 rather than early 2024. Pork production is reduced as producers indicated intentions to reduce farrowings in the second half of 2023 and lower farrowings are expected to continue in the first half of 2024. However, a more rapid rate of growth in pigs per litter is expected to partly offset the lower farrowings. Nonetheless, smaller-than-previously-expected pig crops in late-2023 and early 2024 will result in a lower pork production forecast. Poultry and egg forecasts are unchanged from last month.
Beef imports for 2023 are raised on recent trade data. Exports for the year are reduced slightly; but no change is made to the export forecast for 2024. Pork imports for 2023 are raised slightly on recent trade data; exports are raised for 2023 and 2024 on continued demand strength from China and several Latin American countries. No changes are made to the broiler export forecasts, but turkey exports are raised for both 2023 and 2024.
For 2023, cattle and hog price forecasts are raised from last month on firm demand and relatively tight supplies. This strength is expected to carry into 2024. Broiler, and turkey prices for 2023 are reduced on current prices and higher production. For 2024, turkey prices are lowered while broiler prices are unchanged.
COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for fractionally higher supplies and ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are lowered 50 million bushels, as greater feed and residual use for 2022/23 more than offsets reductions in corn used for ethanol and exports. Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast up 55 million bushels as greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report is partially offset by a 4.0-bushel reduction in yield to 177.5 bushels per acre. According to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information, harvested-area-weighted June precipitation data for the major Corn Belt states represented an extreme downward deviation from average. However, timely rainfall and cooler than normal temperatures for some of the driest parts of the Corn Belt during early July is expected to moderate the impact of June weather. For much of the crop the critical pollination period will be in the coming weeks. With supply rising fractionally and use unchanged, ending stocks are up 5 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.
WHEAT:
Changes this month to the 2023/24 U.S. wheat outlook increase supplies and domestic use, leave exports unchanged, and increase ending stocks. Supplies are raised on larger production, which is up 74 million bushels to 1,739 million, on higher harvested area and yields. The first 2023/24 survey-based production forecast for other spring and Durum indicates a decrease from last year. Conversely, winter wheat production is forecast higher on larger harvested area and higher yields. Gains for all wheat production are partly offset by smaller beginning stocks, which are lowered 18 million bushels to 580 million as indicated in the Grain Stocks report, issued June 30. The 2023/24 ending stocks are forecast at 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bushel, down $0.20 from last month.
