October ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The forecast for 2023 red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month, as higher beef and pork production is more than offset by lower broiler and turkey. Beef production is raised on higher cow and bull slaughter in the second half of the year which more than offsets lowered third-quarter steer and heifer slaughter. The increase in total slaughter is partially offset by lower dressed weights. Pork production is raised for the second half of the year with a higher-than-expected pace of slaughter and upward revisions to the first-half 2023 pig crop. Broiler production is lowered on current hatchery and slaughter data. Turkey production is lowered from last month based on the most recent production data.
For 2024, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised. Beef production is raised primarily on higher feedlot marketings. Pork production is raised as the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released September 28, pointed to a more rapid rate of growth in pigs per litter than previously expected. With larger expected pig crops in the second half of 2023 and first-half 2024, slaughter in 2024 is forecast higher, boosting the production forecast. Broiler and turkey production forecasts are lowered on recent hatchery data and expectations for modest growth in production during the year.
The beef import forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are raised on continued strength in demand and availability of supplies in Oceania. Beef exports are lowered for 2023 and 2024 on increased competition. Pork imports are increased for both 2023 and 2024 largely on higher imports from the EU. Pork exports are lowered for 2023 on the current pace of trade but raised for 2024 on improved competitiveness in Asian markets. Broiler exports are raised for 2023 based on recent trade data but lowered for 2024 as U.S. broiler meat is expected to be less competitive on the global market. Turkey exports are raised for 2023 and 2024 based on lower prices for U.S. product.
Cattle price forecasts for 2023 are lowered from last month reflecting September and early October prices and weaker expected demand for cattle during the fourth quarter of the year. Cattle prices for 2024 are also lowered from last month, as larger supplies of cattle in feedlots are expected to put downward pressure on fed cattle prices. The hog price forecast for 2023 is lowered from last month due to current prices and larger hog supplies. Hog price forecasts for 2024 are also lowered, as larger supplies of hogs pressure prices. Broiler prices for 2023 and 2024 are raised due to lower production. Turkey price forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are reduced on continued weakness in demand.
CORN:
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, lower feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.064 billion bushels, down 70 million on a cut in yield to 173.0 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast at 16.451 billion bushels, a decline of 160 million bushels from last month, with lower production and beginning stocks. Exports are reduced 25 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels based on lower supply. With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks for 2023/24 are lowered 110 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents to $4.95 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast down 2.0 million tons to 1,494.6 million. The 2023/24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for slightly higher production, larger trade, and greater stocks relative to last month.
WHEAT:
The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for higher supplies, increased domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised 85 million bushels, primarily on higher production as reported in the NASS Small Grains Annual Summary, released September 29. Domestic use is raised 30 million bushels, all on higher feed and residual use. The NASS Grain Stocks report released September 29 indicated a higher year-to year increase for first quarter (June-August) domestic disappearance than previously expected.
Exports remain at 700 million bushels with several offsetting by-class changes. Projected ending stocks are raised by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for reduced supplies, lower consumption, decreased trade, and lower stocks.
