November ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The forecast for 2023 red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month with lower beef, pork, broiler, and turkey forecasts. Beef production is lowered with reduced steer and heifer slaughter more than offsetting higher expected cow slaughter and higher average dressed weights in the fourth quarter. Pork production is lowered on lighter dressed weights in the fourth quarter. Broiler production is lowered as eggs set and chicks placed data point towards further production declines in the fourth quarter. Turkey production is lowered based on current hatchery and slaughter data.
For 2024, the beef production forecast is raised. Higher expected steer and heifer placements in the later part of 2023 and first part of 2024 will lead to higher marketings of fed cattle, particularly in the first half of 2024. In addition, cow and bull slaughter is raised from last month. The pace of broiler production growth is reduced from last month. Turkey production is lowered as the sector responds to continued weakness in turkey markets.
Beef imports for 2023 are raised on recent trade data and stronger expected imports from Australia in the fourth quarter. For 2024, beef imports are raised based on higher expected imports from Australia due to tight U.S. beef supplies. Exports for 2023 are raised slightly based on reported data for the third quarter. Beef export forecasts for 2024 are unchanged. Pork imports are raised, and exports are lowered for 2023 on observed data, but the forecasts are unchanged for 2024. Broiler exports forecasts for 2023 are lowered based on recent trade data, with the lowered outlook carrying over into the 2024 export forecast due to weaker international demand and tighter domestic supplies. Turkey exports are raised for 2023 on current trade, but the forecast for 2024 is lowered on lower domestic production.
Cattle price forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are unchanged although weaker prices in the first half of 2024 are offset by higher prices later in the year. The 2023 hog price forecast is lowered on prices to date. Lower hog price forecasts are carried into the first half of 2024. The broiler price forecast for 2023 is lowered on recent data, but 2024 forecasts are raised with the reduction in expected production. The turkey price forecast for 2023 is lowered due to weak demand. The 2024 price forecast is also lowered as weak demand carries into the first part of the year.
5 Area Weekly Weighted Average Direct Slaughter Cattle:
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 170 million from last month on a 1.9-bushel increase in yield to 174.9 bushels per acre. With larger supplies, feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion and corn used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5.3 billion. Exports are raised 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 45 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.85 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast up 4.8 million tons to 1,499.3 million. This month’s 2023/24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for Ukraine, Russia, Burma, and Paraguay are partly offset by declines for Mexico, Egypt, and Indonesia. Corn production for Ukraine and Russia is raised based on harvest results to date. Mexico production is lowered reflecting a reported decline in summer corn area. Foreign barley production is raised as higher production for Russia, Ukraine, and India are partly offset by reductions for Argentina, the EU, and Turkey. Global corn ending stocks, at 315.0 million tons, are up 2.6 million.
The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, decreased domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased imports, up 10 million bushels to 145 million, on a strong pace to date and expectations for the rest of the marketing year. Total domestic use is projected 4 million bushels lower to 1,155 million, all on a reduction in food use following the release of the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report. July-September wheat used in milling is the smallest for this quarter since at least 2014 when NASS began reporting this series. With no other changes to the U.S. balance sheet, projected ending stocks are raised 14 million bushels to 684 million. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $7.20 on lower expected prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for increased supplies, fractionally lower consumption, less trade, and larger ending stocks.