December ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The forecast for 2023 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher pork and broiler forecasts for the fourth quarter are partly offset by lower turkey. Beef production is unchanged with lower expected cattle slaughter offset by higher dressed weights. Pork production is raised on higher slaughter. Broiler production is raised on current slaughter and hatchery data.
For 2024, beef production is raised due to higher cattle slaughter and higher dressed weights. The pork production forecast is unchanged. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be published December 22, 2023, will provide estimates of the pig crops and producer farrowing intentions affecting 2024 production. Broiler production for the first quarter is lowered on recent hatchery data.
Beef imports for 2023 are raised on recent data, but exports are lowered. Imports are raised for 2024 on expectations of demand for processing-grade beef. Pork imports and exports for 2023 are raised on recent data. Pork imports for 2024 are raised on a continued pace of shipments from Canada. Pork exports for 2024 are lowered due to weaker demand from Asian markets. The broiler export forecast for 2023 is raised on recent trade data, but 2024 exports are lowered. Turkey exports are raised for 2023 and 2024 based on weaker turkey prices.
Cattle price forecasts are lowered for the fourth quarter of 2023 and 2024 on recent price movements and as larger expected placements of cattle in late 2023 are marketed in 2024. Hog prices are lowered for the fourth quarter of 2023 and early 2024 based on prices to date. Broiler prices for the fourth quarter of 2023 are lowered slightly based on prices to date but are unchanged for 2024. Turkey prices are lowered for fourth-quarter 2023 based on current prices.
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for higher exports and lower ending stocks. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 2.1 billion reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are reduced 25 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.85 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1,502.0 million. The 2023/24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased trade, and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is raised with increases for Russia, Ukraine, the EU, and Egypt partially offset by reductions for Mexico and Canada. Corn production for Ukraine and Russia is raised based on reported harvest results to date. EU corn production is higher as an increase for France is partially offset by a reduction for Bulgaria. Mexico corn production is cut mostly reflecting lower area.
The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies and domestic use, higher exports, and reduced ending stocks. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 725 million on several large recent export sales of Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat to China. SRW exports are raised 30 million bushels to 175 million, the largest SRW exports since 2013/14. White wheat exports are lowered 5 million bushels to 155 million on a slow pace of sales and shipments. Projected all wheat ending stocks are reduced by 25 million bushels to 659 million, still up 13 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $7.30 on lower projected stocks, NASS prices reported to date, and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for higher supplies, consumption, and trade with reduced stocks.