January ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
Red meat and poultry production for 2023 is raised from last month due to higher beef, pork, and broiler production in the fourth quarter. Changes in the estimates reflect November production data and preliminary estimates of slaughter numbers and weights for December. Egg production is raised based on production and flock data.
For 2024, the beef production forecast is raised with higher expected first-half cattle slaughter, as well as higher dressed weights. USDA’s Cattle report, which will be released January 31, will provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement during 2024 as well as producer intentions for retaining heifers for addition to the breeding herd. First-half pork production is raised reflecting pig crop data for the second half of 2023. Production in the second half reflects first-half 2024 farrowing intentions reported in the December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report and expectations of somewhat slower-than-recent growth in the pigs per litter rate. Broiler production is raised for the first half based on recent hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered for the first half of 2024 based on hatchery data and expected pressure from lower prices. Egg production is lowered due to reductions of the layer flock as a result of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling through early January.
Beef export estimates for 2023 are lowered and imports are raised on recent trade data. For 2024, beef imports are raised largely on higher expected imports from Oceania. The export forecast is lowered on weaker sales to a number of markets in Asia. Pork imports for 2023 are unchanged, but exports are raised. For 2024, pork imports are unchanged, and exports are raised slightly. Broiler exports in 2023 are raised on recent trade data and 2024 exports are also raised slightly. Turkey exports are lowered for 2023 but raised for 2024 as prices are expected to remain competitive.
Price estimates for 2023 reflect December data. For 2024, cattle prices are unchanged. Hog prices are lowered in 2024 reflecting continued softness in demand and increased hog supplies. Broiler prices are projected higher as demand strength in late 2023 is expected to carry over into 2024. Turkey prices for 2024 are lowered with soft demand in late 2023 carrying over into 2024.
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for greater production, larger food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), increased feed and residual use, and higher ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels, up 108 million as an increase in yield to a record 177.3 bushels per acre is partly offset by a 0.6-million acre decline in harvested area. Total corn use is raised 75 million bushels to 14.6 billion. Corn used for ethanol is raised 50 million bushels to 5.4 billion. Feed and residual use is raised 25 million bushels to 5.7 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report, and historical revisions to production and stocks from 2018 to 2022 following the recent Agricultural Census results. With supply rising more than use, 2023/24 corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast up 11.9 million tons to 1,513.9 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, lower trade, and higher stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay partly offset by a decline for Brazil. China corn production is raised to a record 288.8 million tons based on the latest area and yield data from the National Bureau of Statistics. India corn production is raised on higher area. Brazil corn production is cut reflecting lower second crop corn area expectations.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2023/24 include increased corn exports for Turkey, but reductions for Brazil and India. Corn imports are raised for Iran, Iraq, and Turkey but reduced for the EU, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. Sorghum exports are raised for the United States, with higher imports projected for China. China’s corn feed and residual use is raised based on a larger crop. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting an increase for China partly offset by a decline for Brazil. Global corn stocks, at 325.2 million tons, are up 10.0 million.
Projected 2023/24 U.S. wheat ending stocks are lowered 11 million bushels on decreased supplies that more than offset less use. June 1 beginning stocks are reduced based on the NASS Grain Stocks report. Seed use is reduced 1 million bushels to 64 million. All wheat feed and residual use for 2023/24 is unchanged and reflects disappearance for June-November as indicated by the December 1 and revised September 1 stocks released in the NASS Grain Stocks report; however, there are offsetting by-class changes to feed and residual use. The 2023/24 season-average farm price is forecast $0.10 per bushel lower at $7.20, based on prices received to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of 2023/24.