February ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
For 2024, the beef production forecast is raised from last month. Slaughter is lowered for the first half, reflecting a slower pace of cattle slaughter. For the second half, steer and heifer slaughter is raised as USDA’s January Cattle report implied a smaller decline in cattle outside feedlots than previously expected and to the extent these cattle are placed on feed in the first half, they will likely be marketed and slaughtered in the second half.
Carcass weights for the second half are also raised. Pork production is lowered on a slower pace of slaughter. Broiler production is raised for the first quarter on expectations of heavier bird weights. Turkey production is lowered as the sector continues to adjust to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza discoveries in 2023 and early 2024 as well as relatively weak demand. Egg production is reduced slightly on recent layer flock data.
Beef imports for 2024 are raised for the year on firm demand for imported beef and larger supplies of beef, largely in Oceania. The beef export forecast is unchanged. The pork export forecast is raised on the pace of exports in late 2023 and expectations of continued firm demand in a number of key markets. Broiler exports are reduced on higher U.S. prices and weaker import demand, but lower turkey prices are expected to support gains in turkey exports in early 2024.
For 2024, cattle prices are raised on expected strength in first-half demand for fed cattle in the face of tightening feedlot numbers. Hog prices are raised on lower pork production and steady demand. First-half broiler prices are projected higher on current prices. Turkey prices are lowered on recent prices and continued weak demand. Egg prices are raised on recent prices and expectations of relatively firm demand strength post-Easter.
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for lower food, seed, and industrial use and larger ending stocks. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, U.S. corn ending stocks are up 10 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast 3.8 million tons lower to 1,510.1 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, virtually unchanged consumption, and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down, with reductions for Brazil, Mexico, and Serbia partially offset by increases for India and Turkey. For Brazil, production is cut based on lower expected area.
Major global trade changes for 2023/24 include higher projected corn exports for Ukraine and Pakistan with reductions for Brazil, India, and Serbia. For 2022/23, Argentina’s exports for the marketing year beginning in March 2023 are raised based on observed shipments to date, while Brazil is lowered. Corn imports for 2023/24 are cut for Bangladesh and the EU. Barley exports are raised for Australia and Ukraine but lowered for Canada. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, reflecting reductions for Ukraine, Brazil, India, the EU, Mexico, and Paraguay. Global corn ending stocks, at 322.1 million tons, are down 3.2 million.
The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grind as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report released on February 1. The reduction is the result of the October-December quarter, which was the lowest flour grind on record for this quarter as reported in Flour Milling Products. Wheat exports are unchanged at 725 million bushels with offsetting byclass changes for Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels to 658 million. The 2023/24 season-average farm price forecast is unchanged at $7.20 per bushel.
The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for increased supplies, consumption, and trade but lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised 0.5 million tons to 1,057.0 million, primarily on higher production for Iraq and Argentina. Global consumption is raised 1.1 million tons to 797.5 million, mainly on larger Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use in India, where the government is continuing to sell reserves to address price inflation. World trade is raised 1.2 million tons to 210.7 million with higher exports by Ukraine, Argentina, Australia, and Turkey that more than offset reduced exports from the United Kingdom and Brazil. Projected 2023/24 ending stocks are lowered 0.7 million tons to 259.4 million, the lowest level since 2015/16, on decreases for India, China, and Ukraine.