LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month, as higher beef production more than offsets lower pork, broiler, and turkey production. Beef production is raised on higher cattle slaughter, and heavier dressed weights for the third and fourth quarters. Pork production is lowered on a slower pace of slaughter and lower dressed weights. Broiler production for the third quarter is reduced based on recent slaughter data. This more than offsets a higher fourth quarter forecast due to recent hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered based on recent production and hatchery data.
The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production is raised on higher beef, pork, and broiler production. Beef production is raised on higher steer and heifer slaughter, particularly in the first half of the year, and heavier weights. Pork production is raised as the pig crop and farrowing intentions estimates in the September 26 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report pointed to larger hog supplies, particularly in the first half of 2025, which will translate to increased pork production during the year. Broiler production is raised due to a higher price outlook. Turkey production is lowered as the reduced price outlook in 2024 and 2025 is expected to dampen the rate of recovery.
Beef import forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are raised on continued strength in demand and availability of supplies from Oceania and South America. Beef exports are lowered for 2024 on recent trade data. There are no changes to the 2025 beef export forecast. The pork export forecast is lowered for 2024 on recent trade data, but the 2025 export forecast is raised on higher U.S. supplies and improved international demand, particularly in the second half of the year. The broiler export forecast is lowered for 2024 on recent trade data and weaker competitiveness relative to other major exporters. The broiler export forecast for 2025 is also lowered, as increased competition from other major exporters is expected to carry into 2025. The turkey export forecast is lowered for 2024 on recent trade data, but the forecast is unchanged for 2025.
Cattle prices for 2024 are raised in the third and fourth quarters on reported data for September and continued strong demand for cattle through the end of the year. The price strength is carried into the first quarter of 2025.
The hog price forecasts for 2024 and the first half of 2025 are raised on reported data through the end of the third quarter and expected demand strength. The broiler price forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are raised on recent price data and expected demand strength.
CORN:
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies, larger exports, and reduced ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024/25 are 52 million bushels lower based on the Grain Stocks report. Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 17 million from last month on a 0.2-bushel increase in yield to 183.8 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Total use is raised slightly to 15.0 billion bushels reflecting greater exports. With supply falling and use rising, ending stocks are cut 58 million bushels to 2.0 billion.
The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 2.3 million tons lower to 1.500 billion.
This month’s 2024/25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, smaller trade, and essentially unchanged stocks relative to last month.
WHEAT:
The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, larger domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are lowered 6 million bushels to 2,783 million, as reduced beginning stocks and lower production are partly offset by larger imports. Production is reduced 11 million bushels to 1,971 million, as reported in the NASS Small Grains Annual Summary released September 30. Imports are raised 10 million bushels to 115 million based on a strong pace of imports for the first three months of the marketing year. Domestic use is raised 10 million bushels to 120 million on higher feed and residual use. The NASS Grain Stocks report released September 30 indicated a yearto-year increase for first quarter (June-August) feed and residual disappearance from a year earlier. Exports remain at 825 million bushels with several offsetting by-class changes.
Projected ending stocks are lowered by 16 million bushels to 812 million, but still up 17 percent from the previous year.
The season average farm price is unchanged at $5.70 per bushel.
The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for reduced supplies, consumption, and trade but slightly higher ending stocks.
