November ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month with higher beef, broiler, and turkey production forecasts, partially offset by lower pork production. Beef production is raised, as higher dressed weights and cow slaughter more than offset lower expected steer and heifer slaughter. The pork production forecast is lowered on a slower pace of slaughter in the fourth quarter and slightly lighter dressed weights. Broiler and turkey production forecasts are raised based on production data reported through the third quarter.
For 2025, the beef production forecast is raised due to heavier expected dressed weights and higher expected steer and heifer slaughter, partially stemming from higher-than-previously-expected placements during the second half of 2024. The pork production forecast is lowered due to reduced first-quarter slaughter and lower dressed weights. Broiler production is raised based on recent hatchery data that suggests higher production during the first quarter of 2025
The beef import forecast for 2024 is raised on recent trade data and stronger than expected imports from Oceania and South America during the fourth quarter. For 2025, beef imports are raised based on continued strong demand for processing beef. The beef export forecast for 2024 is raised based on reported data through September. For 2025, the forecast is raised based on relatively higher expected global demand. The pork export forecast for 2024 is raised slightly based on reported data through September. For 2025, the forecast is lowered based on pork production forecast reductions and relatively weaker expected demand in several key markets during the first half of the year.
The cattle price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024 is raised based on recent prices and the continued strength in beef demand. The increase is carried into 2025. The 2024 hog price forecast is raised based on recent prices and strong pork demand. The 2025 forecast is also raised based on tighter pork supplies supporting prices in the first half of 2025.
CORN:
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production and ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down 60 million from last month on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 183.1 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million acres. Total use is unchanged at 15.0 billion bushels. With supply falling and no change to use, corn ending stocks are down to 1.9 billion bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
WHEAT:
The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies, domestic use, and ending stocks but unchanged exports. Supplies are raised on higher imports, increased 5 million bushels to 120 million, all on Hard Red Spring. Domestic use is raised, all on food use, based mainly on the NASS Flour Milling Products report. Exports are unchanged at 825 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are increased 3 million bushels to 815 million, up 17 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.60 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
