December ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
Note: The recent discovery of New World screwworm (NWS) in cattle in the Mexican state of Chiapas has resulted in a restriction on the importation of cattle and bison originating from or transiting through Mexico, effective November 22, 2024. Forecasts in this report reflect this restriction, and in the absence of an official timeline for updated import protocols, it is assumed these restrictions will remain in place indefinitely. Subsequent WASDE forecasts will reflect any officially announced changes in policy when they occur.
The forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry production is increased as higher poultry and beef production is partially offset by lower pork production. Beef production is raised on higher steer and heifer slaughter, as well as heavier dressed weights. Pork production is reduced on lighter dressed weights. Broiler production is raised on revised production data for the third quarter, with no changes to the fourth-quarter forecast. Turkey production is raised for the fourth quarter on heavier expected weights, as well as the latest hatchery and production data.
For 2025, the beef production forecast is reduced due to the current restrictions on cattle imports from Mexico. The restrictions would result in lower feedlot placements throughout the year and lower beef production, particularly in the second half of 2025. The pork production forecast is reduced on lighter expected dressed weights in the first half of the year. The Hogs and Pigs report, to be published December 23, 2024, will provide estimates of the pig crops and producer farrowing intentions affecting 2025 production. Broiler production for the first quarter is raised based on recent hatchery data indicating more production in early 2025.
Beef imports for 2024 are raised on recent data. Beef exports are unchanged. For 2025, beef imports are raised on expected demand for processing-grade beef. Beef exports are lowered based on tighter domestic supplies and less competitive prices. The 2024 pork export forecast is lowered based on recent data. For 2025, the pork export forecast is reduced on lower U.S. production and slower-than-previously-expected demand growth in key markets. The broiler export forecast is raised for 2024 on recent trade data. The broiler export forecast for 2025 is also raised on higher production. The turkey export forecast is unchanged for both 2024 and 2025.
The cattle price forecast is unchanged for 2024, while the forecast for 2025 is raised on tighter expected cattle and beef supplies. The hog price forecast is raised for 2024 based on prices to-date and these increases are carried into 2025. The broiler price is unchanged for 2024. For 2025, offsetting quarterly changes result in an unchanged annual broiler forecast.
CORN:
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn used for ethanol, larger exports, and lower ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion, based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of November. These data imply corn used for ethanol during the September to November quarter was the highest since 2017. Corn exports are raised 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are reduced 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 0.6 million tons lower to 1.499 billion. The 2024/25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is cut with declines for the EU, Mexico, and Indonesia partially offset by an increase for Ukraine. EU corn production is down reflecting reductions for Italy, Romania, Croatia, and Austria that are partially offset by increases for Poland, Spain, and France. Mexico corn production is reduced reflecting lower winter corn area expectations. Foreign barley production is slightly higher with increases for Canada and Ukraine partially offset by reductions for Australia and the EU.
Corn exports for 2024/25 are raised for the United States and Canada but lowered for the EU. Corn imports are higher for Bangladesh, the EU, Iran, and Mexico but cut for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced based on declines for China, the EU, and Indonesia. Global corn stocks, at 296.4 million tons, are down 7.7 million.
WHEAT:
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook is for slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, increased exports, and lower ending stocks. Imports are raised 5 million bushels to 125 million on a strong pace for Hard Red Spring. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 850 million. White wheat exports are increased 15 million bushels to 210 million, on stronger-than-expected sales and shipments to East Asian markets. Exports for Soft Red Winter and Hard Red Spring are both raised 5 million bushels. Projected wheat ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million, still up 14 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.60 per bushel.
