Sources Russell Knight & Hannah Taylor, USDA; ERS
Although USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) commercial slaughter estimates for the month of December 2024 are not yet published, the USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has published Actual Slaughter Under Federal Inspection through the end of the year. This allows for a comparison of year-to-year federally inspected slaughter by class, specifically the slaughter mix as a proportion of total slaughter. In 2024, steer and heifer slaughter in the total mix showed the only year-to-year increase. Meanwhile, beef cow slaughter had the largest year-over-year decline, followed by dairy cows and bulls.
Examining heifer, beef cow, and dairy cow slaughter as a percentage of total slaughter offers an indication of producer intentions for maintaining or growing their herds in the coming year. As a proportion of total slaughter, heifer and cow slaughter declined by almost 2 percentage points from 2023. However, it remains the third-highest share over the last 25 years. A year ago, hay prices for 2024 were expected to decline as forage supplies grew, and as a result, calf prices were expected to rise to improve producers’ operating margins and support their willingness to retain heifers and cows.
The chart above shows heifer and total cow slaughter as a percent of total cattle slaughter under Federal inspection from 2000 to 2024. Further noted in the chart are the 10 years with the highest ratios to total slaughter. At 49.8 percent, 2024 was the third-highest average weekly percentage since the series began in 1986, behind 2022 and 2023. The last 6 years are the highest for the last 25 years.
