
"Shootin' The Bull" Weekly Analysis...
For the week ending June 5, 2026
In my opinion, this will be a very simple commentary to write. I have no idea what the next most probable move will be in price for fats or feeders in the futures market. The volatility and price expanse is one for the record books in feeder cattle, and very reminiscence of the old Pork Belly market. The only difference, so far, is that feeders have not been limit up and down in the same day. Bellies were notorious for this. Positive and negative opinions flourished at the onset of the fly being across the border. The extent of price range, and still tremendous unknown factors, leads me to anticipate next week's trading to be encapsulated within Thursday's low and Friday's high of this week. To simplify the situation further, I think the producers' next move is as easy as considering what you did and didn't like about the price at Thursday's low and use the higher price action to make adjustments to. The ability to foresee the big picture outcome of this situation is more than difficult. Even for those that can, the current extent of short-term price fluctuation suggests backing may be needed to withstand the storm. That backing may be as simple as an at the money put option. Producers got a hard look at price action the past two days, with video sales just around the corner. While literally impossible to do, but were one able to disregard some of the volatile price action, you can see that basis was narrowed greatly by weeks end, filled some open gaps in feeders, and pushed prices to nearer the February highs that may or may not be resistance to this week's higher trading. None of the above addresses the congestion at the center of the plate for which appears to be entrenching.
Traders continued their deluge of selling this week in grains and oilseeds. Not even a dead cat bounce was seen for the week. The component of energy appears to have faded as well. Although bean oil continues to be a leader, the beans just gave up. Ethanol didn't have much of a chance anyway as the demand was clearly towards diesel fuel for the war effort and recent planting. This left corn as one of the weaker of the three. Wheat fared no better as there is no improvement of the US wheat crop, but no new demand or reduction of world wheat production. Energy ended the week a little firmer from last Friday. Crude up about $3.00 and diesel fuel $.10. Energy is still in an uptrend with expectations of resuming to new contract highs. Bonds finally broke lower, but only due to a really good Unemployment report. More consumers are going back to work, or having to go back to work. This factor may spur some to consider an increase in consumer demand for beef. I believe it is out of necessity to combat the higher inflation. Inflation is expected to continue to run hot as government spending is like shoveling coal into the fire box, with Casey Jones (the President) at the throttle. That didn't end well.
Christopher B. Swift is commodity broker and consultant with Swift Trading Company in Nashville, TN. Mr. Swift authors the daily commentaries "mid day cattle comment" and "Shootin' the Bull" commentary found on his website @ www.shootinthebull.com.
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